Member Info for Pdub

Luke our main market is the US where V prices are higher. Still quite profitable in that market.

A quick look at Vanchem production.

We know that following commissioning of Kiln 3 production was expected to increase. Has that happened?

2022
Q2 191 mtV
Q3 350 mtV
Q4 372 mtV

There certainly was an increase since Kiln 3 began production (for info Kiln 1 was typically producing around 290 mtV.) Has that increase continued into 2023? At first glance perhaps not as Q1 production was only 261 mtV.

However the detail is important. In the RNS we were also told that in March 141 mtV and in April up to 24 April 117 mtV. So April production projected ahead at same rate would amount to a full month of 146 mtV. Q2 could therefore produce 420 to 440 mtV if the increase is sustained.

How likely is the above? Well certainly possible. H1 2022 produced 722 mtV but we have been informed that an estimated 200 mtV was lost through load shedding. That indicates that Vanchem had the capacity in H1 to produce at least 922 mtV without load shedding (equivalent of 461 mtV per Q)

We are also informed in Q1 update that the steps taken to reduce impact of load shedding are working. That may well explain the very significant jump in production in March and April and demonstrates what is possible in the rest of 2023.

From same RNS “A new supply agreement for lower-silica ore than the Upper seam ore, has been agreed at Vanchem with a third party, and it is anticipated to allow for higher recoveries, resulting in a more stable production rates at no additional costs.”

So yes it does appear that the increases in production at Vanchem are likely to continue through 2023 and that costs will fall.

CC interesting post. Quote from your post:

“They are then going to overwork the plant throughout Q2 and pray it holds up ..”

From RNS “Vametco performed consistently against the comparable period in 2022,” so no problems and with the crusher now replaced “Annual 30-day planned maintenance shutdown is now expected during Q3 2023, previously Q2 2023 due to increased confidence in the Kiln's current performance levels. “

So not quite the way you see it! The maintenance period moved forward due to ‘increased confidence’

Next quote from your post:

“the planned 30 DAY, yes 30 days maintenance ….”

You seemed surprised that production plants have to have maintenance periods. It is a long established practice for factories to have maintenance shutdowns. Prudent management does this at regular intervals to avoid major failures. BMN announced the annual shutdown policy some time ago as part of the improved working practices at the plants. That is one factor that explains why Vametco has achieved its target of sustainable production.

And the next one:

“They have no chance of hitting these forward guidance numbers surely?”

Why not? Here is guidance for 2023:

“Group production guidance of between 4,200 mtV and 4,500 mtV, with volumes weighted towards H2 2023.”

Vametco production is certainly being maintained at a high rate other than on the lost days, and that plant can certainly reach its target. Vanchem is more difficult to predict but the production listed for March and up to 24 April shows significant increase in production total. If that is maintained or even increased then yes the target above can be reached.

These positives should be helpful:

The steps taken to reduce impact of load shedding are working
Better quality feedstock is now available
Production weighted towards H2 indicating ramping up of Vanchem

However I agree that it may be challenging to reach 4200 mtV but if all goes well then no reason why target cannot be reached. Not guaranteed though. Q2 results will give a better indication of 2023 production total. That is likely to be awaited with interest.

Very encouraging that sales have increased and strong demand for products.

Oh I thought you had gone to bed Beginerman.

Still too arrogant to acknowledge that your rude response to my post answering your question was totally inappropriate. Well I have already given you too many opportunities to do the right thing. Guess you simply are not man enough to do it.

Beginerman your personal attacks on me are the very essence of bullying. A better route would been to acknowledge that I did respond to your question etc etc. Once again I am disappointed by your response. Am I simply expecting too much of you?

Beginnerman let’s start with your rude response the other day. You asked me a fair but difficult question to answer. I decided not to disrespect you by not answering, unlike your response to my questions.

Instead I spent a lot of time to provide you with as comprehensive an answer as possible. Now I was expecting something along the lines of agreement disagreement with my points or even just an acknowledgement of the trouble I went to to answer your question.

But no. All I got was more abuse. I quote the first line of your response: “Pdub, can you not control the vindictiveness within you.. “ There was nothing rude or vindictive in my answer at all. Your response was disappointing to say the least. Maybe I should have anticipated such an attitude and not wasted my time on you. I did expect more of you and clearly that was a mistake.

Look back through your own posts and see how often you provoke criticise or patronise shareholders (whatever stupid label you choose to give them) and how rarely you actually discuss BMN.

Now stop being Mr Superior and start focussing on BMN activities. Try making yourself useful instead of constantly sniping from the sidelines. If you have something to contribute about the business that BMN is building we would all like to here it. You seem like an intelligent person and quite capable of providing interesting perspectives.

… sp forecasts …

Beginerman as you know I don’t do so forecasts. I concentrate on company operations which as I am sure you are well aware are going very well.

Is it possible that instead of continually targeting shareholders you could try discussing BMN operations?

Why don’t you target CC for posting such a misleading post? Oh I forgot … he is on your team. I think you need to put him on a free transfer and get yourself a new striker lol

Dont worry Brasi. I have a copy. I think this is going to haunt CC. Shame.

Good grief CC can’t even read an RNS. Incompetent?

Or deliberately lying again? Deceitful?

I have no idea but very worrying that he posted such misleading information about the 14 day shutdown which was at Vanchem, whist the movement of the planned maintenance period from Q2 to Q3 was at Vametco.

The guy just seems totally confused.

Also confirmed that on track to meet annual production guidance, something the market will definitely want to see so more good news

Agreed HarChris. Q2 looking very good. AV price recovery would be icing on the cake

Once BELCO commissioned I think we are all expecting contract announcements, although when, how many and how much is impossible to say.

Either way that should give sentiment a boost

And of course he added bonus that Vametco annual maintenance shutdown now moved from Q2 to Q3. So shortly after Annual Results we may have Q2 update with very good production news and of course commissioning of BELCO.

If there was a small negative, and it really is minor, it was the small drop in production due to poor weather and a couple of maintenance shutdowns. However very significant that they highlighted Vanchem excellent production in March and April so barring other unexpected interruptions Q2 production could easily be another record group total.

And the RNS provided the added bonus that minigrid will be completed middle of the year.

It has been suggested that Belco would not be commissioned in H1.

However H1 commissioning once again confirmed in RNS

Worth remembering that BMN spent two years investing in and upgrading the two production facilities. Did this work? Well judge for yourselves.

Q4 2022 highest record group quarterly production
2022 highest group annual production

I agree HMHG HarChris is doing an excellent job reminding readers just how well BMN operations are doing.

What exactly do you do by comparison with his well constructed and detailed posts?

HarChris it was suggested that BMN would not publish update on by end of April yet it was. Within month of end of Q, just like previous 7 Quarters.

Trolls trying every dirty trick.