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For me it is the doubling of market share of vanadium going to VRFBs. If that is repeated in 2023 then VRFBs could use 10% of market by year end. Unlikely? Perhaps, but whatever the numbers where is the extra supply coming from and what would a significant demand supply imbalance do to V prices?

Thought this might be of interest. On another platform BBN posted some graphs of Vanadium consumption published by Panyang Group, who apparently are the largest global supplier of Vanadium. I have taken the numbers below from those graphs, comparing % V consumption in 2021 and 2022.

Proportion of Vanadium Consumption in Downstreams for years 2021 / 2022 (I hope that the formatting has worked)

Global:

2021 Steel 89% Titanium 3.5% Chemicals 4.8% VRFB 2.7%

2022 Steel 85.2% Titanium 4.2% Chemicals 5.3% VRFB 5.3%

China

2021 Steel 88.3% Titanium 3.7% Chemicals 3.6% VRFB 4.4%

2022 Steel 83.4% Titanium 4.3% Chemicals 4.1% VRFB 8.2%

Ex China

2021 Steel 89.8% Titanium 3.2% Chemicals 6.5% VRFB 0.5%

2022 Steel 87.6% Titanium 4.1% Chemicals 7.1% VRFB 1.2%

Please study the numbers and post any relevant conclusions.

My understanding is that the announcement of new VRFB projects has accelerated in 2023. Any conclusions you may have about that?

ARCM only those that have sold have realised a loss. Sorry for yours.

Nobody knows what the future share price will be for this or any other share. The point of buying on AIM is that the high risk can also be high reward, as we saw with BMN at 48p! Whether or not BMN ever achieves that again who can say.

However the operational progress made by BMN over the last two years and the further developments in the next months and years set the company up for a very successful future. Just how large the profits will be will depend upon the price of vanadium. That looks set to rise in my opinion.

In my mind the share will rise significantly. By how much and over what time period is impossible to say.

Frankly to suggest that there is a good chance the share price will go to zero is defying the reality of the vanadium market and future demand for BMNs products. Still if that is the world you inhabit good luck to you.

Good response Beginerman.

Interesting that the China price rises have not only continued into this week but the range of categories rising has broadened. Could be an interesting week ahead for V prices.

VRFB demand beginning to drive prices up as predicted? Bit early to say but could be the start of a long term trend. Watch this space.

You have your investment strategy Beginerman and that should be respected. It is a shame that you feel it necessary to disrespect other investment strategies. Your deeply patronising attitude towards those that have a different approach perhaps says more about you than the target of your not so subtle insults.

Like many others here I am perfectly happy with my choices of what to do with my money and frankly it is none of your business.

2023 looking very positive for BMN.

Vametco maintenance moved to Q3 so Q2 should return strong production numbers.

Steps to reduce impact of load shedding taking effect at Vanchem.

Vanchem production in March and April very strong so Q2 likely to be best yet.

Increased production and increasingly helpful Dollar Rand likely to reduce costs.

Electrolyte plant to open soon with sales in H2

Minigrid to complete middle of the year to demo Solar VRFB and further reduce Vametco costs.

Refinancing of debt very positive and announced early.

Strong market for all products.

Mustang deal finally showing signs of life which may be positive for BE hive off.

Indications are that cash position much improved in Q1.

Even Lemur coal project appearing in company news again.

List above is not exclusive but not bad for a start!!! Not many AIM miners can list those positives in the one year. Volatile V price one to watch but targeting of higher priced markets helps. If the predicted increased demand from VRFB projects picks up pace then not unreasonable to expect stronger Vanadium prices through rest of 2023.

I wonder when the huge in ground Mokopane Vandium resource will once more feature in BMN news and BE contracts appear?

Best to judge the impact of these positive developments at end of year.

381 mtV Nitrovan landed in Baltimore so far in Q2 with apparently 2 more ships on the way. Contract prices would be from Feb March and early April when US prices were significantly higher. That is a lot of cash flowing in to BMN during Q2. Q1 was high sales … Q2 looking like high receipts (and hopefully high production and sales too). Nice.

True ARCM … and it doesn’t mean it won’t. That is the attraction of AIM. High risk but potentially high reward.

As you well know BMNs operations are going very well as far as we know and there are more positives to come through 2023.

Then there is the forecast growth in VRFBs and their need for vanadium and electrolyte both of which BMN will be able to supply.

The problem for the industry is where will this extra vanadium come from?

Russia … ahem !

China? Most of their production is co product of steel industry so would need large increase in steel.

Brazil? Largo forecasting lower production.

Unlikely any significant new suppliers before 2025.

That leaves the 3 primary production plants in South Africa, two of which BMN own and are forecasting INCREASED production by end of 2023.

By year end BMN will also be producing and selling electrolyte.

I don’t do share price forecasts but 2023 looks like a very strong year for BMN and there are signs that Vanadium price has bottomed out. If the growing demand for V drives those prices back up, and it should, then 2023 starts to look VERY profitable for BMN. Who knows where that could take the share price once those numbers become apparent? Certainly not you or I.

Once again China sees some Vanadium price rises though not in every category.

Although I believe that this pattern has been seen every day this week I think too early to say that this is the sustained and strong reversal of recent price falls. Next week or too could be interesting.

However an encouraging week.

ARCM “ Anthony Viljoen was the brains, Fortune was in awe of this guy. ” You are just making this nonsense up as you go along.

Please read these extracts from an article about the sad death of Professor Morris Viljoen.

From Mining Weekly 24 08 2021

“South African geologist Professor Morris Viljoen, who was also the uncle of AfriTin CEO Anthony Viljoen, succumbed to Covid-19 complications on August 19, with Anthony remembering his uncle for his “truly iconic” contributions to the South African mining and geology industries.

Anthony says Morris’ contributions will leave a lasting legacy in the geoscience world, which will be spoken about, learnt and practiced for generations to come….

… In 2010, Morris was one of the co-founders of VM Investment Company (VMIC), joined by Richard and Richard’s son Anthony, as well as current Bushveld Minerals CEO Fortune Mojapelo.

VMIC laid the foundation for the establishment of Bushveld Minerals and AfriTin as fully operational Aim-listed mining companies….

…The geological base on which Bushveld and AfriTin were built, was the work of Morris and Richard.”

Professors Richard and Morris Viljoen are regarded as being among the leading geologists on the Bushveld. The fact that they created VM Investments with AV and Fortune Mojapelo should indicate to you the respect they had for Fortune.

When BMN was set up a couple of years later they were the technical advisors behind the company. They would not have done that without believing Fortune as CEO would deliver.

Some years later I had the pleasure of spending some time with Fortune and Professor Viljoen and it was clear that there was a great deal of mutual respect between the two of them. Professionals of the stature of Professor Viljoen choose their business associates carefully.

As a personal note Professor Viljoen was kind enough to compliment me on my knowledge of Bushveld geology, remarking that it was unusual to encounter that in private investors ( courtesy of BSc Geology)

I am sure that there is equal respect between AJ and FM too.

Frankly your assessment of Fortune is utter nonsense. You clearly have no understanding of his personal qualities or his skills as a business leader. No one is perfect and he is no exception but you insult his good name. And who are you apart from an unlucky investor that got the timing wrong and realised your loss. You have my sympathy but that does not justify damaging Fortune’s reputation.

My comment yesterday about AIM was not about conspiracy theories nor really about a specific day’s trading. That was merely an example, sorry if too subtle for some.

The issue is about AIM itself. The exchange was as I understand it set up to enable start ups and perhaps high risk companies to raise funds with less stringent rules than on the main exchange. In the process significant power appears to be in the hands of the mms.

From a company perspective those without revenue and a BoD happy to oversell prospects can raise money quite easily with pis being the canon fodder. I am sure some here have been victims of this process. My experience of junior mining explorers was that most promised much but delivered nothing. Frequent dilution and easy pickings for mms, traders, shorters, etc. even easier for them when trade volumes are low.

But what happens when a company like BMN with a talented, determined and honest CEO actually delivers a growth company with revenue and ultimately profit.

At this point supply and demand on main exchange would see a rising share price in line with fundamentals. AIM with mms in charge and low liquidity doesn’t seem to function in that logical market way and that does not help BMN. That doesn’t mean that Bushveld can’t deliver shareholder return ( I am certain that it will do that) but it certainly is more difficult on an exchange where share prices can be more easily manipulated.

That is why I cut Fortune so much slack. Despite so many obvious challenges, including AIM itself he still somehow manages to deliver remarkable operational progress. Ultimately that will be reflected in the share price.

Just my opinion. DYOR

Although as far as we know BMN don’t sell to China they do supply some other Asian countries that may follow China Vanadium prices. Any uptick in China may therefore benefit BMN.

Some more rises in China vanadium prices. Not in every category and too early to confirm an upward trend but definitely a promising start to a possible longer term rise.

Let’s see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

https://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Quick check today on buys to sells (using trade values not LSE colours) shows buys outweighing sells more than 2 to 1 yet sp struggles to stay where it is.

Crazy. However plenty seeing value here and buying in

Well done HMHG. Apart from the unnecessary personal insult (very childish and pathetic) you did at least attempt to justify your trolling.

Financing costs necessary for most growth companies. Not a great argument.

Capital investment completed. Volatile V prices look set to rise.

SA politics just as bad when sp went to 48p. Russia thing Storm in a tea cup. Exports to US $10 billion pa. With Russia $280 million. They know which side the toast is buttered and the US needs BMN vanadium.

Workforce done long term pay deal. Don’t be silly

Comms poor. Yes

Vey good leadership. Look what the business is achieving.

You have no idea what is going on with energy business

Well done. You got one correct.

Given all that is going in BMNs favour HMHG I think you need to explain that comment. And if all you can offer is share price then don’t waste my time.

Eatstocks having followed AM prices for years I stand by my earlier post based upon my experience. Happy to respect that you have a different experience.

It is common for there to be a flat period before a change in price trend including China prices. This time that was absent. However that is just my opinion.

Interesting that China V prices reversed from falling to rising so quickly. No flat period which there has often been previously.

Given that everything is going right for BMN the current share price makes no dsense at all in my opinion. I firmly believe that through the remainder of 2023 we will see the company strengthen its position across its operations and that is going to place increasing pressure on the share price. Market can only ignore this for so long.

Just my opinion. DYOR

ARCM my post was about the next couple of months or so. Don’t recall describing June July and August 2023 for the last 5 years. Do you disagree with any of the items listed? If so which ones and why? If not then what are you banging on about?

Your attacks on me are getting a bit tiresome. You are sounding like an angry person looking for someone to blame for your realised investment losses. Your decision to buy. Your decision to sell at a loss. Take responsibility for your actions.

I post positively because that is how I feel about the operational progress being made by BMN. I will continue to do so as long as that remains my opinion. What you think about that bothers me not.