Forgive the repost31 May 2023 09:47
But original positive analysis got lost in a sea of silly trader talk.
From Mikhail’s post (thanks Brasi for posting the link):
“According to the forecast of professional institutions, the installed capacity of vanadium batteries is expected to reach 8.6 to 12.9 GWh in 2025, requiring more than 100,000 tons of vanadium resources. The potential market demand has increased significantly, …”
That raises an interesting problem. In 2021 total global vanadium production was 119,000 mtV, up just 3,000 mtV from the previous year. Where is all this extra Vanadium going to come from?
Most of China’s output is coproduction from steel industry. Difficult to independently raise output.
Russia is blacklisted.
That more or less leaves 4 primary production plants, two of which are owned by … BUSHVELD MINERALS !! Vanchem is expected to increase production but nothing like enough to meet more than a small proportion of the increased demand. Largo apparently have forecast falling production this year (DYOR on that).
What about new plant? No doubt this will come …. over time. IF the wannabe producers can raise the HUGE Investment needed to open a new mine and/or processing plant, can get in place all permissions and planning consents (and we know how long that can take) and then the time required to build a large industrial plant and/or mine plus all infrastructure, complete commissioning and iron out problems (again we should all understand those issues!)
So the anticipated shortfall in supply vs demand looks like it will be larger than I (and I suspect many others reading this) considered likely.
I will leave it to you all to work out what the shortfall in global V supply is likely to do to Vanadium prices in 2023 to 2025 just as BMN have completed their upgrades to Vametco and Vanchem and will bring the new electrolyte plant online. Not to mention the value of their investment in Enerox.
Today’s share price is crazy low. Given what is about to happen in the VRFB and vanadium market BMN looks to have placed itself in the right place at the right time as this new green energy market explodes into life.
I will leave it to the reader to consider what this is likely to do to profits and share price over the next year or two.
Just my opinion. As always DYOR if thinking of investing in BMN.