Member Info for Pdub

Love you too ARCM but the bb is about BMN. Try writing something intelligent about the company. If that is too difficult try copying someone else’s. Welcome to use mine lol.

Have a nice day.

Just for you Ben dear xx

Interesting numbers on global market from globenewswire.com in March.

Global Vanadium market in 2022 worth $42.5 billion. They estimate this to rise to $81.8 billion by 2030. That is very large market growth.

US vanadium market in 2022 $11.6 billion! And BMN is very wisely tapping into this large, lucrative and growing market.

The name is Pdub ARCM. If you want to be taken seriously stop acting like a child.

As far as opinions are concerned you have your entirely negative one, I have a much more positive approach based upon what the company is actually doing and supported by facts. Stop being the thought police and accept that the world is not as dark as you seem to think.

Sorry for your realised loss. I don’t like anyone losing money but unfortunately it happens.

Great series of posts last night Skibba.

Ps Wasn’t it UET that supplied that VRFB? Small but some might say rather important detail.

Correction:

At least Cindercone you put some thought into your posts, even though I disagree with almost every conclusion.

You certainly put to shame the trolls working the BB this evening. I commend you for that.

Night night.

At least Cindercone you put some thought into your posts, even though I disagree with almost every conclusion.

You certainly put to shame the trolls working the BoD this evening. I commend you for that.

Night night.

Remains sections not worth commenting on

Refinancing of debt - saved BMN from self-inflicted disaster…”

Complete lack of understanding of the value of the debt in enabling upgrade of the plants and of the tangible support for BMN by Orion, who clearly know and understand far more about the future of BMN.

“Minigrid will have no impact on Vanchem and little at Vametco - it's just a pointless project to demonstrate something that will never be rolled out in a basket case country like SA. “

What a load of nonsense! Never heard of proof of concept? Very important in promoting a new industry. Will also supply a part of Vametco’s electricity and with rising energy costs can only be a good thing. Minigrid are such an obvious solution in a country with an unreliable grid. Huge potential market in both South Africa and the ret of the continent.

“ BELCO electrolyte plant - nothing to talk about until we know how much of the plant is owned by BMN amidst laughable lack of comms from management. With BE's track record, this is bound to disappoint. ”

Nonsense. Ownership has been well publicised. Whatever the long term settlement opening an electrolyte plant just as VRFB demand is rising is quite a result.

One more step on the road to vertical integration as promised by the BoD

“ Dollar Rand - nobody seems capable of demonstrating the real impact on the bottom line. Likely to have a paltry effect on paltry profits. ”

Dealt with at 21.58

“ Load shedding reduction impact at Vanchem completely unknowable as despite mitigating factors SA suffering worst ever load shedding at up to 16 hours a day. “ already dealt with in Q1 RNS. Did you not read it?

Quote: “Vanchem's power curtailment solution with the local municipality announced recently, has so far provided a more reliable feed of electricity contributing to improved operational stability in the months of March and April”

That led to Vanchem production of 141 mtV in March and 117 mtV. That is the equivalent of quarterly production of around 420 mtV, much higher than any previous Q total. The new agreement is working.

“According to reports, V price likely to be flat for the remainder of the year as China struggles to kickstart heavily depressed steel sector. “. On the other hand the demand from increasing VRFB projects likely to place upward pressure on V price through 2023/24.

ARC estimate AISC for 2023 at $35 kgV

They also estimated Dollar Rand rate at 17. I understand 90% of costs are in Rand. Therefore the Dollar Rand rate becomes significant when converting costs from Rand to Dollars. The Dollar Rand rate for Q1 was 17.8 and thus higher than ARCs assumption. In Q2 the Dollar Rand rate has been even higher and sits comfortably in the 19 plus range.

Consequently the actual AISC in US$ is likely to be less than $35 kgV but the actual figure won’t be known until year end. However it would be reasonable to assume that a rate of 18.5 is likely so far in 2023. Thus costs in US$ could be 8 or 9% lower which would give an AISC of between $32 and $33 kgV.

Thus US sales remain profitable even at the current slightly depressed V price.

However none of this takes into account the Nitrovan premium over the FeV price, currently thought to be around 5%. That would produce a realised current price of US FeV of $34.55 x 1.05 for Nitrovan which is $36.28.

So sales to US could be realising a profit of at least $3.28 kgV even at todays V price and significantly higher during the first four months of the year.

We also know from Paludina’s work tracking Nitrovan arrivals in US that BMN have increased their sales to that market.

My personal opinion is that with VRFB contracts picking up 2023 will see growing demand for Vanadium and rising prices.

In H2 BMN will also start selling higher value electrolyte.

All looking very promising. Of course there are several assumptions being made here …. But I think they are reasonable given what we know.

Just my opinion. DYOR.

Someone questioned the ability to sell the vanadium. I know …

Facts about sales in last two years by H:

2021 H1 1608 mtV

2021 H2 1706 mtV

2022 H1 1644 mtV

2022 H2 1939 mtV

The evidence suggests sales going very well with a big jump in H2 2022. With global logistics improving and VRFB demand likely to increase I would not be surprised to see a record year for sales in 2023, some of which will be high value chemicals and electrolyte. With sales of 1028 mtV in Q1, some of which is production cost paid inventory, they are certainly well placed to deliver record annual sales this year. And if V prices hold up, particularly in the US, then sales could generate some very serious profit.

Just my very positive opinion.

Benbutton as you have expressed an interest in my posts this one is for you. xx

2023 looking very positive for BMN.

Vametco maintenance moved to Q3 so Q2 should return strong production numbers.

Steps to reduce impact of load shedding taking effect at Vanchem.

Vanchem production in March and April very strong so Q2 likely to be best yet.

Increased production and increasingly helpful Dollar Rand likely to reduce costs.

Electrolyte plant to open soon with sales in H2

Minigrid to complete middle of the year to demo Solar VRFB and further reduce Vametco costs.

Refinancing of debt very positive and announced early.

Strong market for all products.

Mustang deal finally showing signs of life which may be positive for BE hive off.

Indications are that cash position much improved in Q1.

Even Lemur coal project appearing in company news again.

List above is not exclusive but not bad for a start!!! Not many AIM miners can list those positives in the one year. Volatile V price one to watch but targeting of higher priced markets helps. If the predicted increased demand from VRFB projects picks up pace then not unreasonable to expect stronger Vanadium prices in medium to long term.

I wonder when the huge in ground Mokopane Vandium resource will once more feature in BMN news and BE contracts appear?

Thanks Loudspeaker.

So your figures show V price more or less flat through May into June. As I said.

Https://www.fastmarkets.com/commodity-price/ferro-vanadium-70-80-v-in-whs-pittsburgh-mb-fev-0002