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Correct I am not TB. So tell me given that the costs were actually incurred in a previous Q what will it do to the cash position?

And I trust that you accept the remains issues on my list?

Oh and according to ARC at Dollar Rand of 17 then AISC is $35 mtV.

Actual Dollar Rand was 17.8 which would reduce costs relative to revenue by up to 5%. Thus AISC more likely at $33.25

TB so simple eh?

Well no actually.

BMNs largest market is USA. Q1 price was $42.5. Big difference.

You forgot the Nitrovan premium over FeV thought to be an extra 5%

You forgot that 87 mtV were sold from inventory. Production costs in previous Q so no production costs in Q1 for those 87 mtV.

You don’t know the sales price for the high value chemicals even though production costs have been accounted for.

Actual sales 1028 mtV not 1000 mtV

Never as straightforward as you think is it.

Another blue day … up 2%. Small but in the right direction.

… still the buys are coming in.

Cindercone you need to calm down, stop being abusive and quit the thuggish and bullying attitude. I will happily debate with adults but not children throwing toys out of the pram.

I will deal with your lies after hours.

Correction:

“… few vanadium companies are perhaps better placed to chase those opportunities than BMN.”

TB that is true for most miners. What is your point?

It was true when BMN went to 48p and to 1.3p.

You are saying nothing new.

What is new is the upgrading of both plants, higher and more consistent production, economies of scale reducing costs, real exchange rate benefits, diverse market opportunities courtesy of Vanchem and including high priced chemicals, and of course soon the first sales of higher priced electrolyte.

Also new are the new market opportunities from the rapidly growing VRFB industry and the impact on V demand, particularly shifting dependency away from just the steel market.

Then of course there are electrolyte rental opportunists which have yet to make an impact as has much of the above.

Live in the past if you want but the Vanadium world is rapidly changing and few companies are perhaps better placed to chase those opportunities Gotham most Vanadium companies.

It is true that much of the above is unrealised potential but that is now changing and fast. Once that converts into visible profits it will at least be interesting to see how the market reacts.

Oh dear Cindercone try to think for yourself and check sources:

“And as Trevor brooking said, you don't offset that positive with negatives like rising electricity price, increased load shedding and inflation. In other words, the whole basis of your analysis is nonsensical garbage.”

From ARC report:

“Weighted average group production cash cost guidance for the year is set at US$26-27/kg, inflation of certain cost drivers (including a 19% hike in electricity prices in South Africa from April 1st) partly offsetting the beneficial impact of the forecast higher volumes and weaker currency.”

Oops Cindercone. Wrong again.

And from ARC report:

“While Bushveld maintains its near-term target of achieving a steady-state group production run rate of 5,000-5,400t pa, electricity load shedding has impacted its ability to optimise Vanchem, and this has been factored into its 2023 group production guidance of 4,200-4,500t (with volumes weighted to H2). “

So in my use of ARC numbers they HAVE ALREADY FACTORED IN rising electricity price, increased load shedding and inflation. If only you and TB either bothered to read these documents properly or could understand what you are reading then you wouldn’t waste everyone’s time with your nonsense.

Then from Q1 Update:

“Vanchem's power curtailment solution with the local municipality announced recently, has so far provided a more reliable feed of electricity contributing to improved operational stability in the months of March and April.”

All very positive.

I will deal with your lies about me after hours.

Haha brilliant Cindercone.

Bad we don’t give numbers

Bad we do give numbers

No more time wasted on you.

Cindercone I look forward to you posting your own numbers with fully supportive evidence.

Otherwise don’t waste everyone’s time please. That’s polite for otherwise shut the f*ck up)

This is the 09.06 post. Previous one from 06.06

RE: Can BMN sp repeat 2017 rise?9 Jun 2023 15:15

ARC valuation forecast risked NAV of 12p for 2023 based upon an average V price of $40 kgV and Dollar Rand of 17 ( leading to AISC of $35 kgV). This was upgraded to 14p following their positive response to the refinancing of the Orion debt.

Dollar Rand has averaged much higher than they assumed. At 18 their new risked NAV would be around 15.5p

Share price now 3.55p. To get to 15.5p would require the sp to rise by 337% over the next 12 months. Is that possible over the next year? If BMN deliver on the news expected in that period why not. No guarantee of course and dependent on V price.

In 2017 year share price began around 1.85p and ended around 8p. A rise of 332% !! Interesting. ARC clearly think it is possible to repeat this IF realised V price averages $40 kgV. With growing demand for Vanadium electrolyte and very limited options for increased supply $40 kgV certainly achievable particularly in BMNs largest market the US.

Not a prediction. Just an opinion. DYOR.

For Cindercone.

My post on 09 June @ 15.15

BMN profits in US market?

6 Jun 2023 21:58

ARC estimate AISC for 2023 at $35 kgV 

They also estimated Dollar Rand rate at 17. I understand 90% of costs are in Rand. Therefore the Dollar Rand rate becomes significant when converting costs from Rand to Dollars. The Dollar Rand rate for Q1 was 17.8 and thus higher than ARCs assumption.

In Q2 the Dollar Rand rate has been even higher and sits comfortably in the 19 plus range. 

Consequently the actual AISC in US$ is likely to be less than $35 kgV but the actual figure won’t be known until year end.

However it would be reasonable to assume that a rate of 18.5 is likely so far in 2023. Thus costs in US$ could be 8 or 9% lower which would give an AISC of between $32 and $33 kgV. 

Thus US sales remain profitable even at the current slightly depressed V price.

Someone got out of bed the wrong side.

As you have had another unprovoked and completely unjustified attack on my credibility I will give you an answer.

…. again. Nice!

…. when team Troll start to operate. A sign of fear.

I don’t like anyone losing money, even trolls that would deliberately try to damage my investment, so I hope no one is getting caught out with their shorts. Good luck if you are!

Still early in the day but good to see share price rising again. Perhaps a sign of the growing investor confidence in both BMN (about time too) and South Africa.

I hope this rising trend continues and we can see a clear path to fair value from this ridiculously low share price.

Just my opinion. DYOR

And the buying continues … gone blue. Is the rising trend of the last three days continuing? Wouldn’t surprise me given the news flow anticipated, possible recovery in V prices and improving sentiment in South Africa.

I see the early attack on the share price this morning was somewhat stifled by a confident 700,000 buy. Someone taking advantage of the small pull back. Nice.

Dollar Rand has dropped from recent high of plus 19 but remains well above historical levels at 18.55.

From Reuters:

“JOHANNESBURG, June 12 (Reuters) - The South African rand extended gains on Monday, building from the previous week, as investor sentiment towards Africa's most industrialised economy improved…………

……..l Analysts say the rand's gains come partly on the back of reduced intensity of power cuts at home and speculation that the BRICS summit of emerging countries may be moved out of Johannesburg due to the arrest warrant by International Criminal Court hanging over Russian President Vladimir Putin's head.”

And further analysis from tradingeconomics.com:

“The latest GDP figures showed that South Africa's economy had narrowly avoided a recession in the first quarter and central bank data indicated the current account deficit narrowed more than expected in the same period.

Meanwhile, June has surprised with load shedding being suspended for more than half the day and kept to lower stages at night, against expectations it could get worse. The higher availability of electricity has been attributed to improved maintenance at Eskom's power plants and increased diesel supply at the open-cycle gas turbines that are used for emergency supply during periods of high demand, as well as higher tariffs that have cut demand.”

So on the face of it not good news for BMN but closer analysis suggests otherwise.

Although Dollar Rand has fallen it is still way above historical levels and the 17 assumed by ARC in its estimate of 14p NAV ( they used 17), so it continues to work favourably for BMNs margin between costs and revenue.

Perhaps equally important is the increasing investor confidence in South Africa. International money markets are not noted for kind sentiment so are reacting to positive signs from South Africa. Also a small weakening of the dollar has contributed to the falling rate.

Does not make South Africa perfect (obviously) but I will happily take the positives.

Oh come on Nobby if you really want to be negative then do it properly. Pretty much where it was 9 1/2 years ago.

But of course that is not the point. The share price has risen 17% since Wednesday. I have no idea if that trend will continue but at some point it needs to if fair value is to return to this share price. Maybe this is it. Maybe not. But it will happen. But for those looking for 100% in a day it is far more likely to be series of much smaller steps.

So 17% since Wednesday would not be a bad start …. Either now or whenever the recovery starts. Don’t knock it.

Just my opinion. DYOR