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Correction of typo:

“… Q4 group production total was a new record and it is likely that will also be broken in 2023 as Vanchem production is ramped up …”

Worth reminding the market about the excellent operational progress made by BMN over the last couple of years or so, despite significant regional and global headwinds.

Significant investment of time and money in both Vametco and Vanchem have produced very positive results.

Vametco is now running at sustainable output level with a proper maintenance schedule to minimise unscheduled stoppages.

Vanchem saw the closure of the ageing Kiln 1 and the successful commissioning of the larger Kiln 3, resulting increased output.

Consequently 2022 was a record year for total group production and it is likely that record will be broken again in 2023. Q4 group production total was a new record and it is likely that will also be broken in 2033 as Vanchem production is ramped up. Released production data for March and April indicates that production has increased, aided by a new agreement that reduces impact of load shedding and better quality feedstock to plant.

The market awaits news on both the minigrid at Vametco and the new electrolyte plant becoming operational in the coming weeks.

The slow progress in the MUST Enerox arrangements will eventually resolve and that may well trigger the Bushveld Energy hive off through its investment in that project.

A significant step forward was the successful renegotiation of the Orion debt and hopefully binding terms will be signed off in due course.

2023/24 looking very positive for BMN. If the company continues to deliver on these projects and maintains its focus on cost control then the period should become very profitable, though vanadium market prices will be a significant factor. With increasing demand for vanadium from the growing global VRFB industry and supply constraints there is likely to be upward pressure on prices.

I cannot predict the future share price anymore than anyone else can, but the professional analysts see significant growth over the period (eg ARC 14p at V price of $40 kgV and Dollar Rand at 17). No guarantees of course but there is the potential for significant share price growth from here.

Just my opinion. DYOR

Snake you two should get a place together. You make a horrible couple lol.

Same as … go out and enjoy the sun. Give up the hindsight forecasting and wind up nonsense.

Perfectly reasonable question Andii but I don’t think BMN will be looking in that direction right now. Very focussed on developing their own projects.

Good luck with your investment.

It is also worth reminding the market about the excellent operational progress made by BMN over the last couple of years or so, despite significant regional and global headwinds.

Significant investment of time and money in both Vametco and Vanchem have produced very positive results.

Vametco is now running at sustainable output level with a proper maintenance schedule to minimise unscheduled stoppages.

Vanchem saw the closure of the ageing Kiln 1 and the successful commissioning of the larger Kiln 3, resulting increased output.

Consequently 2022 was a record year for total group production and it is likely that record will be broken again in 2023. Q4 group production total was a new record and it is likely that will also be broken in 2033 as Vanchem production is ramped up. Released production data for March and April indicates that production has increased, aided by a new agreement that reduces impact of load shedding and better quality feedstock to plant.

The market awaits news on both the minigrid at Vametco and the new electrolyte plant becoming operational in the coming weeks.

The slow progress in the MUST Enerox arrangements will eventually resolve and that may well trigger the Bushveld Energy hive off through its investment in that project.

A significant step forward was the successful renegotiation of the Orion debt and hopefully binding terms will be signed off in due course.

2023/24 looking very positive for BMN. If the company continues to deliver on these projects and maintains its focus on cost control then the period should become very profitable, though vanadium market prices will be significant. With increasing demand for vanadium from the growing global VRFB industry and supply constraints there is likely to be upward pressure on prices.

I cannot predict the future share price anymore than anyone else can, but the professional analysts see significant growth over the period (eg ARC 14p at V price of $40 kgV and Dollar Rand at 17). No guarantees of course but there is the potential for significant share price growth from here.

Just my opinion. DYOR

Unlikely BMN would be interested in TGR.

Quite apart from their own mining operations at Vametco they also have Brits which is the along strike extension of Vametco and provides the opportunity to extend mine life for decades.

Then there is the huge world class Mokopane vanadium resource which awaits further exploitation. Unlikely that BMN will look at small operations in other countries when they have very large vanadium resources to exploit in their own backyard, whilst at the same time focussing on downstream value added operations to meet the growing demand from the VRFB energy storage industry.

I wish you well with your investment but BMN is focussed on developing and expanding its own very significant vanadium mining and processing business. In fact BMN could not be better placed to make a significant and profitable contribution to the global vanadium market.

Their recent partnerships have been focussed on energy storage rather than V supply and unless they look for partners to exploit their own in ground resources I can’t see that changing.

Just my opinion. DYOR

Sorry to hear about your father and brother Walden. Lost my father to cancer 45 years ago. I still miss him.

Regards Paul

Thank you guys. Appreciated.

Doing well thank you. Now have two local hospitals following my progress closely A) because I have defied the odds for so long and B) the new drug is shrinking the tumours, if slowly.

I put it down to a positive attitude! Some of the medical staff acknowledging that as a possible factor.

More rises on AM in China. Vanadium nitride and V2O5 up as well as some categories of FeV

https://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Cindercone I am not going to resort to personal insults. You carry on if you wish.

Clearly you have not understood the paragraph in question so I will break it down to make it easier for everyone to judge for themselves (if anyone is interested … which I doubt)

“ARC valuation forecast risked NAV of 12p for 2023 based upon an average V price of $40 kgV and Dollar Rand of 17 ( leading to AISC of $35 kgV).”

Simple FACT

“This was upgraded to 14p following their positive response to the refinancing of the Orion debt.”

Simple FACT

“Dollar Rand has averaged much higher than they assumed.”

Simple FACT

“At 18 their new risked NAV would be around 15.5p.”

Simple FACT (but highly dependent on Vanadium price!)

“Share price now 3.55p.”

Simple FACT (accurate at time of original post)

“To get to 15.5p would require the sp to rise by 337% over the next 12 months.”

Simple FACT (no suggestion whatsoever that Dollar Rand will cause this)

“Is that possible over the next year? If BMN deliver on the news expected in that period why not."

My opinion that if BMN deliver then a 337% sp rise not impossible.

At no point have I suggested that would be caused by the Dollar Rand. I have specifically stated that the rise in share price will only be possible if BMN deliver the news that we are expecting over the period. It is there in black and white.

You are perpetuating your lie in a desperate attempt to save your own credibility.

At no point have I suggested that the dollar rand would cause that share price rise. Quite the opposite. I point out that the NAV suggested by ARC (not by me) could only be achieved if BMN deliver on the expected news.

Your last post is full of personal abuse aimed at me but not one shred of evidence to support your lie.

My consistent opinion, frequently stated, is that a weak rand increases the margin between costs and revenue and that has a positive impact on profitability. Rising profits should impact on the share price.

If you wish to further insult me and somehow think that is an adequate cover for your lies please feel free.

Strong buying into the close. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a strong start tomorrow.

Cindercone those numbers were ARCs not mine. My comment was about their numbers not my opinion. Read it carefully. I covered that in my comments to you where I clearly stated that it is legitimate to use ARCs numbers. The only opinion I expressed in that quote was if their scenario played out was a large sp rise possible, and that was not specific to DR rate. The first part simply discussed ARCs numbers. Read it again:

“… To get to 15.5p would require the sp to rise by 337% over the next 12 months. Is that possible over the next year? If BMN deliver on the news expected in that period why not."

That comment was purely about possible share price increase if BMN deliver. It was not a prediction nor attributing sp rise to DR.

I believed that you are intelligent enough to understand that. I was wrong.

Clearly you can’t substantiate your lies. Job done.

Exactly Chris and that is the point I made too.

Part 4

I am not interested in debating any of this with you Cindercone. You lied (again) about what I have posted.

Either produce a quote where I state my opinion that the exchange rate will affect the share price or apologise.

I have often repeated that the weakness of the rand has reduced costs, increased margins and improved profitability. I have been very consistent on that.

Now if anyone thinks that increased profitability may put upward pressure on the share price … absolutely. But that is another story.

All opinions expressed are my own. DYOR

Part 3

Now again your accusation:

“…. trying to delude people into believe the $ZAR exchange rate will have a positive effect on the SP.”

I have only quoted what ARC produced in their numbers in their report. That is absolutely legitimate whether or not you agree with the numbers. To accuse me of misleading by using ARCs numbers is a disgraceful LIE.

From earlier today here is my opinion. “Although Dollar Rand has fallen it is still way above historical levels and the 17 assumed by ARC in its estimate of 14p NAV ( they used 17), so it continues to work favourably for BMNs MARGIN between COSTS and REVENUE.”

Note I did not say share price I said MARGINS not share price. HUGE difference.

And from 10 June:

“I see this has dropped below 19 and at time of writing is still 18.71. 
Doom and gloom for BMN or still favourably high for impact on costs? What do you think?”

Impact on COSTS!

And as another example from 11 May:

“ARC’s revaluation assumes Dollar Rand of 17. In Q1 BMN state average of 17.8 and since end of Q1 we have witnessed above 18, currently 18.88. Why does this matter? Revenue in Dollars but most costs eg labour in Rand. Increasing rate effectively increases the gap between costs and revenue. Profit margin increases!”

NO MENTION OF SHARE PRICE … ONLY PROFIT MARGIN INCREASE.

The only times I link Dollar Rand to NAV is when looking at ARCs table of data in their report. That is an absolutely legitimate use of numbers in the public domain because it is what they do. Disagree with numbers all you like but don’t hide behind your keyboard and tell blatant LIES about what I have said.

Unless you can find a single comment where I have literally said the exchange rate will have a positive effect on the share price. Other than when quoting from the ARC report I only link Dollar Rand to costs, margins and profit.

So stop telling blatant lies. I DETEST LIARS. Find a single quote where I have directly linked exchange rate to share price (other than when quoting ARC and giving their opinion) or withdraw your lie.

Remember it is your reputation on the line here, not mine. You are LYING so are you going to produce specific relevant evidence or apologise.

Part 2

Now let’s look at this accusation :

“…. trying to delude people into believe the $ZAR exchange rate will have a positive effect on the SP”

The following is taken from Q1 Update:

“Q1 2023 production cash cost (C1) of US$34.1/kgV (Q1 2022: US$38.6/kgV) supported by a weaker ZAR:USD exchange rate and higher production volumes.”

BMN themselves attribute lower production cash cost at Vanchem partly to more favourable exchange rate. So FACT: weaker rand reduced production cash cost. Its in the RNS.

Weaker Rand therefore decreases AISC and increases margins. FACT.

Therefore a weaker rand will increase profitability relative to a stronger rand. FACT.

Exactly by how much is impossible to say, as I pointed out above, but quite legitimate to speculate based upon known numbers and possible future trends.

Cindercone’s lie

Part 1

First let’s deal with Dollar Rand and AISC. I have not given a definitive figure because I can’t … and nor can anyone else. Here is what I actually wrote:

“In Q2 the Dollar Rand rate has been even higher and sits comfortably in the 19 plus range. (Accurate at the time)

Consequently the actual AISC in US$ is likely to be less than $35 kgV but the actual figure won’t be known until year end. “

Note my very deliberate and explicit qualification … “but the actual figure won’t be known until year end. “

I have expressed my opinion on AISC based upon a number provided by a professional analyst firm ARC, and used that as a starting point. Where a parameter varies from what they assumed, it is entirely appropriate to re assess the conclusion. Thus if DOLLAR RAND is higher than assumed AISC will be lower.

Yep. Nice one!!!

A large after hours purchase. Bodes well for opening tomorrow. Looks to me like momentum building. Still very early days but at least a move in the right direction.