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Part 4

I know that there are no certainties or guarantees on AIM and particularly with the resources sector but even just considering probability in my opinion it is inconceivable that BMN will still owe the full CLN in 2028 or even a significant part of it. The point is that with rising and diversifying production and likely higher V prices BMN will have choices, including settling the 60% loan (“The facility may be prepaid in whole or in part at any time.”). How much choice will depend upon level of profitability.

A minor point but it was suggested that with CLN running full term and rolling the interest to the end the value would be $26.65 million. When I ran this through a compound interest calculator it came to $24.3 million. However irrelevant as I don’t think this will be the case for reasons given above.

The refinancing agreement has a hugely positive outcome for BMN, removing the immediate burden of repayment before they are ready and giving maximum options over the next 3 to 5 years. That is a far better result than the doom merchants tried to have us believe. Well done FM and team and good to see Orion committing their support long term just as they said they would.

Just my opinion. DYOR.

Part 3

So looking at the last two terms in the above quote from the RNS BMN have the option of paying off 50% of the CLN (about $6.25 million plus interest) or Orion converting same amount. Given the very strong operational progress made by BMN and likely V price movement is there any rational investor that seriously doubts the ability of the company to redeem that part of the CLN in 3 years time? I think not. So it is almost inconceivable that the entire CLN will still be outstanding.

The second of those terms and conditions allows BMN to force conversion of all outstanding CLN if VWAP exceeds 16p for 60 days. Given the scenario I have outlined above it is hard to see BMN sp remains below 16p for long and certainly not 5 years.

Part 2

So what might happen over the next five years?

We are likely to see continued growth in BMN production, falling costs through economies of scale and revenue from electrolyte production. Some of the output from Vanchem will be high value chemicals and other products serving for example the aerospace industry.

We will also see movement with the BE/ Mustang/Enerox deal with uncertain but likely positive impact on finances. And possible progress with Lemur coal project (sale/joint venture?) and possible movement with Mokopane vanadium project.

At the same time there is likely to be growing demand for Vanadium with the expansion of the global VRFB industry. With limits to the ability of the vanadium suppliers to meet that rising demand in the short to medium term this seems most likely to generally push vanadium prices upwards.

Part 1

Beginerman this discussion has at its core a highly selective view of the CLN section of the refinancing. Before I offer any opinions let’s do what is right and proper and look at the entire relevant section of the RNS:

“30% of the CLN Balance (c.US$13.5 million) to remain as a convertible loan note with the following revised terms ("New CLN"):

Interest: 12%

Exercise price: 8p

Maturity Date: 30 June 2028

Bushveld shall have a one-time right to redeem 50% (in whole and not in part) of the New CLN in June 2026, subject to the right of Orion to elect for conversion of the same for a 30-day period

Bushveld has the right to force conversion of the New CLN if the 60 Day VWAP of the Company's share price is in excess of 16p.”

That extra vanadium will come from Vanchem, where we already know March and April totals show successful ramp up in production.

And let’s not forget that H2 should see sales of high value electrolyte for the first time.

Hxulcolrdoh you posted “There will be no significant ramp up in production in 2023 (if at all)”. Really?

From Q1 Update

“Group production guidance for 2023 maintained at between 4,200 mtV and 4,500 mtV.”

2022 group production 3852 mtV.

Therefore group production expected to rise by between 9% and 17% in 2023 vs 2022. That would be a very significant rise in production.

Try reading RNSs properly before making misleading statements.

More importantly we know that markets for BMN products remains buoyant so expect strong sales, particularly in the US where prices are higher.

No HMHG they don’t think it’s odd.

Orion know much more about BMN than you will ever do. Given the VERY positive outcome of the refinancing discussions they clearly like what they see, even if you don’t. But then they are professionals HMHG … that’s the difference.

As for approvals simply a rubber stamp operation. No one here thinks this was a bad outcome, other than trolls like yourself (apparently). Shareholder approval for this is a given and the deal has removed the shadow of debt repayment in November.

Funnily enough it was trolls like you that predicted doom and gloom over the Orion debt. You should be celebrating such a positive resolution of the debt issue that allows BMN to continue there programme of growth.

Let’s not forget that the debt allowed BMN to refurbish Vametco and open Vanchem kiln 3, leading to expansion of production of Vanadium just as demand is expected to rise from the growth in VRFB projects. Very significant operational progress.

Daisan you’re kidding lol

Correction:

“ This period is painful and frustrating to every shareholder but in my opinion as BMN delivers more of its goals the share price will respond, despite the best efforts of some to deny this.”

The question investors have to ask is what are BMN doing wrong (as a business) to try and explain the sp drop.

I would argue absolutely nothing wrong. No bad news. No issues selling product. In fact everything the company has done in the last few months is very positive.

Even external factors like the Dollar Rand rate and the improving global logistics are all going BMNs way.

So rather than berating the CEO or suggesting big issues with BMN, both of which are clearly not appropriate I believe we have to look at AIM itself and the sheer greed of mms ant the City and also wider issues concerning cost of living and the ability of pis to fund share purchases.

Even these issues will be overcome as we go through 2023 / 24 and BMN ticks off yet more milestones and begins to post clear profits visible to the wider market.

This period is painful and frustrating to every shareholder but in my opinion as BMN delivers more of its goats the share price will respond, despite the best efforts of some to deny this.

I will stop patronising you if and when you stop behaving like a child. I look forward to that day.lol.

Enjoyed our little chat but dinner calls. Night.

As far as numbers go I and others have offered interpretation of declining AISC on margins. Keep up please.

And I never do share price forecasts. I leave that to those that think they know the future.

That frankly is a stupid response Cindercone. If you want an intelligent debate then behave like it.

If you are simply arguing for argument sake then have it with yourself.

Doesn’t take a lot of common sense to realise that with revenue in US$ and most costs in Rand then the higher the rate the greater the margin between costs and revenue.

You tell me how that helps the” bottom line”.

Ultimately money talks, even on AIM, and as profits increase, possibly significantly, and become visible ( patience required) that should give a significant boost to share price … unless your version of the economics of the market says something different.

Right now it’s work in progress.

How do you think it works Cindercone?

I could refer you to the ARC analysis where they give different NAVs for different Dollar rand values … but would you look it up? Doubt it and I am not doing it for you. I have previously posted scenarios featuring various Dollar rand rates taken from that analysis.

Suffice to say their most recent report gives a risked NAV of 14p at DR of 17 and V price of $40 kgV. Higher DR leads to higher NAV but 19.74 is way off their scale. DYOR.

Currently 19.74 !!

Don’t be childish Cindercone. No one owes you a return on your investment. YOU took the risk of investing on AIM. Now you have discovered there are no guarantees.

ARCM “ The facts are Fortune should probably be in prison, he is paraded around like a king by some on here, all the while destroying this company” If you really believe that you are so so out of touch with reality. If you don’t then you are a scoundrel !

Unlike you Fortune is responsible for expanding the business, fixing it where it was broken and protecting the jobs of 800 employees and their families. His company sells to most markets and brings in valuable US$s to a country whose economy needs every bit of support.

Sorry for your realised loss but take it on the chin and stop looking for someone to blame.

The CEO is the person that had the vision, talent and drive to take BMN from from a start up wannabe junior mining explorer hoping to become an iron ore miner to a vanadium miner and processor owning two of only four primary vanadium production plants and about to go into electrolyte production at their own brand new facility.

And so much more to come including increased vanadium production, opening of minigrid and various BE related actuvities.

He has successfully renegotiated the Orion debt and we think had the pleasure of seeing BMN profitable in Q1.

Share price of course is ridiculous, as it is for many AIM companies, but BMN are making huge operational progress.

Does the CEO deserve his salary etc? Some might argue no but that is the going rate if you want a good leader. And we have a good leader.

I see a couple of you got out of bed the wrong side this morning. Take a walk in the sun and for goodness sake cheer up.

There is a long way to go in 2023 and BMN is well positioned.