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ARC go on to say that as a result of the refinancing they have INCREASED their valuation of BMN:

“ The proposed refinancing terms are less dilutive to value than our prior conservative assumption that the entire US$35m loan note (plus accrued interest) would be converted to equity at 5p/sh, albeit our estimate of future debt servicing costs are now higher. Accordingly, our risked long-term target valuation increases by 17%, to 14p.”

The trolls say one thing about the refinancing.

This is what the professionals think. ARC Analyst report 10 May opening statement:

“ The proposed loan note refinancing would reduce and defer a hitherto looming near-term debt liability whilst sculpting future debt repayments on a schedule more aligned with Bushveld’s expected production growth and internal cash generation projections. Alleviating this near-term balance-sheet pressure will simplify the Bushveld investment proposition, untethering its shares for a potential upwards re-rating if the group can deliver on near-term operational targets. This in turn would provide Bushveld with a stronger base from which to evaluate funding options for its longer-term production growth ambitions.”

I agree with ARC

Might take you up on that Ridgewalker

Thanks fatbanker.

ARC have increased their forecast following the renegotiated financing RNS.

Assuming Vanadium price of $40 kgV and Dollar Rand at 17 they give an Un-risked NAV of 20.7p per share and x 0.7 for a Risked NAV of 14.1p per share.

Dollar rand for 2023 is running at consistently above 18 which would give 25p and 17.5p respectively.

Add in a strong H2 Vanadium price to average $45 kgV and NAV rises to 37p and 26p per share.

That would be a very good return from under 4.5p !!!

And into the highest priced vanadium market!

This year looking very positive for BMN.

Vametco maintenance moved to Q3 so Q2 should return strong production numbers.

Steps to reduce impact of load shedding taking effect at Vanchem.

Vanchem production in March and April very strong so Q2 likely to be best yet.

Increased production and increasingly helpful Dollar Rand likely to reduce costs.

Electrolyte plant to open soon with sales in H2

Minigrid to complete middle of the year to demo Solar VRFB and further reduce Vametco costs.

Refinancing of debt very positive and announced early.

Strong market for all products.

Mustang deal finally showing signs of life which may be positive for BE hive off.

Indications are that cash position much improved in Q1.

Even Lemur coal project appearing in company news again.

List above is not exclusive but not bad for a start!!! Not many AIM miners can list those positives in the one year. Volatile V price one to watch but targeting of higher priced markets helps. If the predicted increased demand from VRFB projects picks up pace then not unreasonable to expect stronger Vanadium prices through rest of 2023.

I wonder when the huge in ground Mokopane Vandium resource will once more feature in BMN news and BE contracts appear?

A selection of Coffeecups posts just a week before allegedly buying back in. Only a complete muppet would buy into a company that they genuinely believed the following … or perhaps they didn’t ?

03 May

“They have no chance of hitting these forward guidance numbers surely?
47 days between Q1 and Q3 so far already booked out of production ...
What a shower ...”

(On Lemur) “Looks expensive and easily forgetable.”

02 May

“That would mean that BMN's valuation could also be massively overvalued..”

(On BoD) “Still ripping it out though, salaries, forward options, expenses.”

“It would only be a punt as the debt vs China/USA price control that I see going on means I would have to be prepared to lose that money.”

“If people want facts go and look at BMN last full set of acs and 6 monthly figures ( BMN website ) look at the listings under debt .... try not to wince as you read them.”

“Do you mean take a majority controlling interest for the price of the CLN or have I missed your point?”

“attract newer investors to try and halt the perfect 1.25p heard and shoulders chart that is forming”

(Edit: best of the lot,) “If I saw a sure fire thing I would be selling any hard assets I could get rid of and be pilling in ... there are some proper players on this board and a lot of them are wolves in sheeps clothing.”

So did Coffeecups follow the advice that he is not qualified to give and sell everything to buy his 10000 shares (that’s a guess by the way). Any way at least no innocent punters will ever again be fooled by his trader talk.

Thanks for clarifying. The wording was a little confusing as your link doesn’t work for me.

I haven’t valued the Mustang deal so can’t help there.

RAH0084 I assume that is an error and you mean BMN, not BBN?

Somewhat different message !?!

I know I keep saying it but 2023 just keeps looking better and better for BMN.

That all makes sense HarChris.

I see we have a post questioning cash position. Put simply nobody knows as it has not been published in Q1 update.

Therefore anyone attempting an estimate, whether positive, negative or trolling about BMN must begin from official numbers.

Let’s look at what we know about Q1:

Production 943 mtV

Sales 1028 mtV

ARC AISC 2023 $35 kgV

Q1 V price: US $42.5 Europe $39.4 China $37.8

Points to remember when doing your calculations:

Sales exceeded production by 85 mtV. The shortfall would have come from production costs paid inventory. This should be a very nice addition to Q1 revenue.

Nitrovan sells at an unknown premium to FeV. That represents most of Vametco production.

Some of Vanchem output is of high value chemicals and products, boosting revenue.

Vametco is only 74% BMN owned, affecting attributable costs and revenue.

Good luck if you are attempting a precise figure. Too many unknowns for me. However it is very clear that healthy margins were enjoyed throughout Q1, particularly in the US which is BMNs main market. This is likely to have significantly improved BMNs cash position at end of quarter.

BMN have effectively resolved the short term debt issue, a small amount paid off in shares, some more in CLNs at around 100% to current share price and the balance in cash which BMN can settle early if they wish. This deal seems very prudent with little dilution and maintaining cash position with option to reduce debt over and above schedule if V price allows. With rising demand from the rapidly growing number of VRFB project announcements it is hard to see the V price doing anything but rising in the medium to long term.

There you go again Cindercone. It’s target is not 5400, it is a rate of 5000 to 5400 pa by end of 2023.

The actual production target for 2023 is 4200 to 4500 mtV.

No point in continuing this as you clearly don’t understand targets.

No disrespect intended Cindercone but you need to be more careful with your wording otherwise you mislead, even by accident.

You also need to take more care with your use of facts. Your 5400 v BMNs 5000 to 5400. Very different scenarios.

For every ‘missed’ target you state that can be matched by targets delivered. Eg the upgrade of Vametco was intended to stabilise production. That it has done very well and in fact the raised target for 2022 production was exceeded.

In 2022 we were told that Kiln 1 Vanchem would be shut and kiln 3 commissioned and that this would lead to higher production. Delivered. Figures for March and April 2023 show record production. We have been repeatedly told that commissioning of Belco due H1 2023 and this was once again confirmed. I could go on.

The point is that you repeatedly make negative sweeping statements about BMN but time and again an examination of the detail brings your conclusions into doubt.

There are no guarantees of course but in my opinion you are far too quick to jump to absolute negative outcomes.

And by the way I don’t really care if a production target is missed by a small amount. Sales are the key and they are looking strong.

Good to hear from you Troajan. As always clear and succinct.

Hats off to wassat.

Oh and no account given for what happens with BE …. But that’s a story for another day.

Apologies, correction: “… high value specialised products and vanadium chemicals.”

In both of my posts I have been deliberately very conservative in my assumptions. It is quite possible that actual profits will be higher, possibly significantly higher with any average V price above $40 to $45 kgV.

Cindercone they did not say 5400 mtV needed. The actual quote below clearly indicates that production of around 5000 mtV would be enough to trigger the phased expansion, plus necessary funding which as I have already indicated could easily come from cash flow, and as I have already demonstrated that is certainly achievable in 2024.

From RNS 22 June 2022

“Our immediate short-term focus is to ensure that the production base continues to be stable and sustainable, as we ramp up production towards the run rate of 5,000 - 5,400 mtVp.a…. “ ( Edit: timetable has slipped a bit through load shedding but still the target.)

And:

“We recently announced the key findings of the feasibility and pre-feasibility studies regarding the optimal path forward to increase Vametco and Vanchem's production to 8,000 mtVp.a. The expansion will be conducted in phases and will only be pursued once we have met our short-term performance goals of 5,000 - 5,400 mtVp.a. and secured the necessary funding.”

In fact every single RNS reference refers to 5000 to 5400 mtV, not 5400. The latter number is purely your selective and inaccurate reference.

I fully support your use of facts to support your opinion but you must quote them accurately.

Now we need to look at HarChris original post, quote:

“The plan will be to kick on with the 4 stage expansion to 8000mtV as soon as the 5000mtV steady state run rate is achieved"

Every part of that I agree with. He clearly stated the START (“kick on”) of the process, which I also referred to. Your answer was:

“Not a cat in hell's chance of this happening for at least 5 years, unless V prices hit $60 and stay there, permanently.”

Your answer therefore talks about the start of the process and I cannot agree at all with your timescale or V price requirement.

In your later post however you now refer to the end of the process “Hence why I really can't see 8000mtv coming to fruition …” which neither of us discussed. So either you misread HarChris post or you wrote an unclear and misleading answer in your first post.

So in summary, given the cash generation that I have outlined earlier, it is quite possible for the staged expansion to begin late 2024, although I think 2025 is more likely. Even with a modest rise in V price in response to the rapid rise in VRFB projects the company will generate enough cash to meet all its needs and BEGIN the phased expansion programme. No wild guesses involved, just hard logic based upon known facts. No guarantees either of course.

When the process of expansion to 8000 mtV ENDS it is not possible for me to say. Way too many variables so no ‘wild guesses’.

And let me remind you once again of the following:

None of my numbers allow for the Nitrovan premium price over FeV.

No account is given for any revenue from electrolyte sales.

No allowance made for the prices achieved for sales of high value specialised prices and vanadium chemicals.