Member Info for PDS2023

Cheers Reardon95 and Blackfox, all the best to you as well.

Just one last post for you people on here that seem to think nobody says anything true, I have sent snapshots of the sales for clarity. If you are real traders and have paid for any pricing service, you will actually then be able to match the sizes to the trades yesterday, but i am convinced you won't have paid for such a service. And fwiw i actually underestimated the total, if you add the figures you will see its 564,717 shares in total. I feel bad for you cynics that can't seem to understand that people trade real size in this market other than MA.

https://imgur.com/a/ze6A6pz

After many painful yoyo's and entry @ c37p (after a cpl of averages), decided to pull the cord yesterday on this trade. Sold out of almost 500k shares @ 33.3. Needed to rotate this capital in my overall portfolio, at 15% was sucking up too much valuable time and return options. This was my one and only non-US stock and have realised the UK market isn't going anywhere sadly. I may well look back and see that this has been bought out and a slight premium, but the time I have lost on this doesn't work for me. I wish all holders the best in the Boohoo journey, and hopefully the non-holders give people a break that are just trying to improve their livelihoods, even if the conjecture is more hope than strategy.

So everything they managed to accumulate has now been sold, we need patience here. Fundamentals key and I think the cost savings will bear fruit. Technically we are basing and consolidating.

These last few days whilst not ideal are also not that relevant given how little has been trading. Goes back to what I said in a previous post, every time we move lower from 40 back to lm30s, the volume available for purchase falls. It looks like the holders that are lefts are either large institutions that have been long for several years, the stronger retail holders and then the insiders. MMs evidently have been asked by Frasers to accumulate a certain size, which they are struggling to find, hence the knee deep bottom fishing we are seeing right now. At the same time, shorts are not reducing much as there isn't enough liquidity to prevent the price shooting higher swiftly. Overall my view is the same, as JeremyP mentioned its playing this symmetrical triangle pattern, although we have closed below the 100dMA, so technically getting a little less positive overall. We need to see a renewed breakout soon for this to begin a move higher, otherwise its going to be sideways for a while.

From the perspective of candlestick patterns, I have never been a huge fan given even slight deviations from the typical shape can mean very different views on the candle itself, for example, given this candlestick has a lower wick, is it an inverted hammer or long upper shadow, each have v different implications on the trading view. Nonetheless, from a charting perspective more generally, a few things are still playing out. Firstly, the W pattern is still forming, we had a breakout and then a retest back into the range. Secondly, this retest is also aligning with a symmetrical triangle pattern longer term (from the highs of 23 and the lows set after the Oct results). Add to that the fact we are above the 100MA, which is also turning upwards after a long time. This feels like we are slowly but surely squeezing our way higher. Await next weeks moves. Have a good weekend all.

Anecdotal evidence of few people wearing Boohoo product is great but literally has no relevance to the thesis here, especially in the numbers which are being talked about. Also, these prices moves are not "manipulation", I really don't like the word as it is a specific accusation and this is just market gyrations. The reality is MA is the only large buyer of the stock right now, so as prices move higher there just isn't the traction needed to keep prices high. Short sellers are not showing their hand until enough shares seem to be available to buy back, whereas MA will have live limit orders in the MMs books (in the typical 33-35p range). MMs are naturally trying to find shares and fill that order. That being said, this is a fishing exercise, and again is just consolidation share ownership into larger players. We broke out of the "w pattern" and have now fallen back below the neckline (from the late 23' high). The lack of volume today but the 2mm+ buy from yesterday tells me we are getting to a point where we could see a more erratic move higher on above average volume. It is just patience, but fwiw the chart pattern still seems robust and as I said last week, I prefer to se things move slow and steady rather than lift offs that can just fall back to earth just as fast.

I would like to see a few things this week that would give me more confidence that this is indeed a breakout from a chart perspective. The 200EMA has been broken for a third time, and there is more likelihood this will now be a sustained break, similarly to the downtrend that has been in place since the Apr23' peak. Breaking above the upper keltner channel on a daily basis (as I mentioned a few posts ago) is definitely encouraging. I always like to see several technical elements coalescing, just makes for a cleaner picture. Assuming we hold above these levels, the near term target is of course the recent peak at 42+ but after that it will likely be 46.22 (where we saw a shooting star candle in May23'). If we power through that, then 60p is the next big level. Saying this, at any one of those levels we could see a turn back towards the this downtrend we have just broken. If we move vertically higher we will likely come back vertically lower, so I prefer to see steady moves.

At least the highest bought level over the last 12mo

In what sense JeremyP? Thanks

Lets pause for a moment, we are right at the downtrend set from the peak of 60p last year in Apr23' and we have hit this a few times (got v close a cpl weeks back) only to reverse hard. We need a sustained break and close above 38.5 for this to stick imho. So worth keeping an eye.

AO World not Boohoo

This is just a view, so please read with a pinch of salt. But given the lack of business these two have done over the years and even the fact that Debenhams was swooped out of administration by Boohoo even though Ashley wanted to buy it well before that point and save jobs, probably has meant there is little chance of collaboration here. That being said, I think the 180mm+ MA lost in the Debenhams venture, he is trying to recoup here. It seems like the 30% threshold is not necessarily where MA wants to be, but rather force the Kamani's to take this private and offer a substantial premium to his current owned stock (c32-33p average). The fact they have brought in an LBO/IPO experienced CFO tells me that there is some merit to this idea. 90-100p would net his Debenhams loss to zero. Worst case he probably gets to 30% as a 2nd option and offers a lot less for the company than 100p. So be careful what we wish for here in terms of MA involvement.

I evidently got caught up in the moment and there wasn't any late friday bonanza. Nonetheless, one thing that seems clear is every time we take new legs lower (from the 39-40 zone), less shares are being sold on the way down. Even today, MMs struggled to get any real allocation, obviously looking to fill another large limit order. Fundamentally, trading is in line with the recent weak guidance (which is actually a decent sign), the news about the RCF is so misleading given 250mm was extended by larger banks in July 2023. The large Italian lender is most likely an investment firm that doesn't get the same capital treatment benefit as a bank does, and look at where rates are right now (fixed term lending far more lucrative). I haven't read anything mature written about this article and fwiw I was in the structured credit industry for 13 years before pursuing my own ventures. The stake building continues and no new shorts have been opened, all in pointing towards a "patience needed" technical picture. All these shares are being gathered by the MMs to feed the beast, and it seems more investors are catching onto that fact now..

Odds of a 4pm accumulation spike?

As I said in a previous post, they are pure fundamentals. Will be late to the party, not like a hedge fund. If they feel their fundamental story or stop loss hit, will close all in one go. Not tapered like a fast money institution.

This will be shorts closing. Will see tomorrow on the short tracker.

I don't usually waste my time arguing on this platform but I have to reply when something is so blatantly dumb. It specifically says here that Boohoo shares were a great buy on 8th July, but one should sell it all at 400. You do realise that Boohoo shares hit 400p, end of September 2020, so you could have made 50% in 3mo. I have no idea about what came next from UncleDoug, don't have that time to waste looking through other people's posts but everything posted in this message was actually true.

3mm vs the 50mm shares that Frasers just added. Not really balanced by any means.

That is a fair comment, lets call it "looser capital float" to be more precise.