Member Info for PDS2023

Where do you see that Pedro? Sells starting to accelerate? Just want to know the data point yo are coming to that conclusion from?

Where do you see the plenty of selling Pedro? Volume has been pretty low overall, at least until the end of the day.

(seems to have cut off some words from my last post)....that it won't breakdown without a fight. And setups which are usually bearish that surprise to the upside, can have more of a squeeze type reaction. I am using technicals views to determine turning points, the trend will for sure be driven by results and data.

Appreciate that, and as I have said before, this type of dialogue is far more constructive and useful for both longs, shorts and sideliners.

Going back to ASOS technical view, I think a longer term bottom will only be confirmed if we take out the Oct22' low c455p. We tested this in early Sep23, only to reject and head back to the lower trendline channel. I do expect we retest if we hold this channel over the coming days.

Boohoo, whilst on a more "traditionally" bearish descending triangle pattern, has already broken to the upside a couple of times. 32p seems to be a strong line in the sand on the downside. This morning's wick at the open is a powerful signal that

I think what the market is finally waking up to now is what happens if revenue starts to turn upwards and into growth mode. A lot of the variables seem to be turning upwards already, without revenue improvement (in fact revenue disappointed due to July/Aug). It will be a multi-month re-rate but fundamentals could also line up with technicals now.

3rd Oct

Also technically speaking, Asos is very much respecting the upward sloping trend channel. Day has only begun but if we close above the lower trend line, I think it's unlikely we see the pattern breakdown.

Boohoo is a little more interesting. There are two descending triangle patterns, one from the year to date high @ 60 and more recently from the MA buying peak @ 40. It has broken out of the shorter term triangle but needs to break out (again) of the longer term one in the 33.5 context to see this be a bullish breakout.

Time will tell but seeing positive signs

Purely on price action alone, this is encouraging to say the least. It's a 6/10 but investors always looking for turning points and seems like we have more turning up vs continuation down now.

Https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/88/60175

Please can we just stick to investment posts, it's tiring to read this and only Monday. Debate is fine, arguments can be had on Facebook or Whatsapp. Thank you

He only owns 10% in physical shares, he could own up to 17% of the put options expire in the money and he is forced to buy those shares at strike from the option owner. But it could all expire out of the money, strike price > share price on expiry, in which case he only owns 10%.

MA adding is interesting, Umar adding is intriguing. MA does like a punt and like all of us here is probably looking at the expected outcomes and saying, downside more limited vs upside, timing agnostic. Umar on the other hand really didn't need to buy back into a business he ultimately sold to Boohoo for hundreds of millions. Either he has seen operations at PLT and realised the US is an absolute game changer (I can see US sales eclipsing UK if they get this right) and/or Boohoo is being sized up by the likes of Shein. Compounding this, the MA news around misguided could just be on the back of Shein interest in Boohoo/Asos, which I am sure he can get wind of through market knowledge. Front running is his style and ultimately could revalue his own stakes in Boo and Asos higher.

This is all speculation, from my corner, but something to think about as a pure option play away from the more fundamental arguments. I wouldn't just ignore this has happened.

In Sep 29th 22' shorts peaked @ c10% and the share price was 31.5

The current share price is 31.75-32, yet short interest is closer to 5%, basically halved

Rather than looking at recent short interest changes, comparing these two like for like (and remember those shorts were added going into much weaker guidance and poor macro backdrop), this tells me that the conviction of a lower share price is much much lower now.

What i find quite interesting is that the bid/offer is pretty narrow and the bid keeps hitting close to the lows around 31.8. However, it isn't finding a seller base, which is a positive signal. By the same token, we are not seeing large buying either, the big players seem to have filled their boots for now, so we are basically in limbo. The fact we are not seeing material sellers at these levels feels like we are going to be here until Asos results at the very least. If MA turns up later today, that could change things but i am not expecting that.

Appreciate that Pedro, all for more lively discussion here, and I don't mind if you take the other side, as Nassim Taleb taught everyone, just because you have seen only white swans, it only takes one non-white swan to refute the whole argument that only white swans exist! Understanding why your share view may fail is more important than confirming your view, because if you can hold after accounting for the downside, you are anti-fragile. Or at least with some rigour behind it!

Just nowhere near enough follow through to take the share up right now, it won't change until Asos update next week.

I said, these are my assumption Pedro, if you read what i wrote.

I haven't really seen any material input from you since I joined the forum, other than three lines about how the share is poor. I don't expect that to change but maybe if you spent some time writing like others do, with some detail attached, your point may actually be considered, even if its negative on the stock.

*here not her..

Bon_scott, definitely need patience her. I always like to think about shares in a probability sense. Given where the business is and how poor the outlook has been, alongside a very unfavourable macro backdrop, what are the odds of an ever weaker update with further downside guidance. I actually put this probability at around 20%, in which case the share price could fall between the all time low around 20p and the current price ie. -40%. If on the other hand we see in line guidance and outlook with a probability of around 50%, the lows of the share will be in as the macro climate has started to shift positively and headwinds are now tailwinds, I would see a share price in the 40-50p range, ie +40%. The final tail is a beat on the guidance and a more positive outlook, with growth closer to double digits and 24' post-tax profits vs expected 2025. Assuming 30% odds for this, the share price is likely to move back towards the 60-75p range i.e +110%.

Blending all these expected outcomes together, the expected return her is +45% (based on my assumptions)

Overall that seems like an interesting risk return for me.

Thanks for checking @bon_scott

So with such a low lending rate, what is the incentive to offer shares? You can lock away 6m-1yr deposits here at 5%+ (even more in ISAs). My point being the opportunity cost as an owner of Boo shares is massive. If the demand to short was actually that high, the rate would increase as a means of trying to fulfill the short interest in the stock. That doesn't seem to be the case here, just very low volume interest in shorting.