Member Info for PDS2023

I have been in the industry for many years, sell side, hedge fund and traditional buy side. It's just my take, can't prove anything. But as I said, whether they tout buy or sell i don't really care.

The only thing they contribute is access to concise figures, which still need to be checked but provide a good reference to understand a company without trawling through all the accounts.

Not at all, I just said I don't read anything analysts say. Until they get their pay docked on wrong calls or bonus paid on right ones, they are arguably the least useful people in the entire industry.

It's all about covering, if they get the price wrong but view 'right' they lean on the view and if they get the view wrong but the price right they lean on the price. It's pure games.

These analysts are a waste of time, they have a hit rate lower than a coin flip. Also since when is 26% upside a neutral stance?? Absolute joke to the industry. No skin in the game and no value add. Shame people even bother reading their reports.

Hi JeremyP, can I ask where your support/resistance numbers are derived from?

Thanks.

Why have you assumed it's because nobody wants to buy and not that there aren't a huge amount of sellers now, that volume has fallen? Just curious

Back at 25th Jul levels, where Frasers added second slug. I don't think a share can sustain a rise with the backing of one large investor (unless there is evidence of a takeover/merger) but there is definitely a floor to current prices. Results will naturally be a a huge rubicon, either way we will find direction on 3rd Oct.

I have nothing against a different view and reality is I bought into the turnaround closer to 38.5p average entry, so I haven't timed it perfectly by any means. But on the premise of a lot of bad news being priced in, these levels seem pretty interesting. The big driver is US distribution, lower latency and lower costs will drive gross margin in the right direction.

There is a big difference between insider ownership and outsider buy in. Agree UK buying means little as he has a huge vested interest even if it might be the right trade. Reality is he has made a lot of money already.

However MA adding is a very different proposition, either to just participate in growth or long term buy out opportunity (I don't think the latter is the case). The reality is when markets trade up the bears look stupid and vice versa. It's pretty irrelevant which side you are on but reIty is a company that has survived the consolidation we have seen in the UK market, 5% rate increase and Brexit/supply chain issues is likely going to benefit from a smaller playing field, whether bears like it or not.

MA doesn't have exposure to BOO via derivatives, only long positions via ordinary shares.

In the case of ASOS, he has both ordinary shares and derivative exposure via puts spread across Sep-Dec 2023. These are most likely cash covered puts, as he is using potential share price changes to add ownership to the company. We do not know where these have been struck but my guess would be a range of strikes between where he has been adding shares and lower increments. Either way the derivatives do not imply a view on share direction, just that he would be happy to add at several levels.

We are back to levels on Mon 19th June when MA added his stake. I can only imagine this will be an interesting place for him to add to his position. Time will tell

Can you trade options on AIM stocks?

Suspect he is struggling to buy enough shares in Boohoo given how little is trading

Any idea about these large trades after hours? Not sure what to make of it if anything.

The terrible working conditions/pay of some Boohoo factories were publicized in July 2020. Yes, gross margins have fallen from 54% in FY20 to c50% in FY22, but administrative expenses (which includes wages etc) account for 25% of gross sales. Based on your assertion that gross margins have been impacted primarily by the increase in wage bill since these findings, doesn't make sense because current minimum wage is almost 3x the number you quoted (£3/hr)....I mean just back of the envelope tells you it was a very select problem, unless you are pricing in a close to 0 gross margin on the horizon!

500mm market cap stocks don't react to inflation headlines, just trends. Hence the more recent move has been lower as inflation trended much higher than expected. The opposite will be true if disinflationary trends are missed. I would just add, whilst there could be a re-basing of inflation at a higher level and possible I created due to commodity prices over the coming months, every rate hike priced in/or delivered will have an above average impact on demand going forward.

Just a quick note, on Tues 11th July, wage data posted stronger than expected numbers and the market reaction was almost the same as today, with stocks initially down only to recover strongly into the close. A stronger wage environment is pretty positive for domestic stocks especially in the retail space. Just on the recent market response to wage data, I expect this could be the near term bottom for BOO (it is also not selling off in line with recent moves in the FTSE indices)

I am also long BOO and these share price moves are most definitely frustrating, but by no means is it manipulation or a conspiracy against the stock. And that is also the case for all stocks out here, the price is always right. Specifically on BOO, the reason why we see such large moves to the downside on such little volume is there are a ton of "weak" buyers, who have got in for a quick buck and are easily shaken out of their position when they see -1,-2,-3% in a day.

Looking ahead, the way I would think about Boohoo and other online retailers that have survived the post-covid slump, interest rate hikes and inflationary scare is a more consolidated field that will have access to a more stable consumer base going forward. I think the double digit growth days are behind us but with a more strategic business plan (which even the likes of MA have bought into it seems), this has a higher liklihood of strong returns in the coming years.