Member Info for PDS2023

Size?

For those that are interested, used the historical data from short tracker to work out "estimated" weighted average entry prices for all the short sellers. Estimated because I am making the assumption that the data is posted with a lag, so I have assumed information is t+1 the trade date and I have also taken the closing price on that day as the average entry, for simplicity (so there will be +-2-3% to these numbers given rough bid/offer and volatility).

Results as follows (ranked from lowest entry price):

WA Entry Price Short Interest %

GSA Capital Partners LLP 30.88 0.90%

ELEVA CAPITAL SAS 36.54 1.66%

Systematica Investments Limited 51.10 0.50%

Qube Research & Technologies Limited 51.77 0.70%

Ennismore Fund Management Limited 53.73 0.56%

Citadel Advisors LLC 68.62 0.98%

Marshall Wace LLP 90.02 1.50%

GSA short could be underwater now, they may be looking to close this out given squeeze potential. Next up is slightly higher up, Eleva @ 36.54 but huge position to unwind at 1.66%

Lets just say i will take paint drying over paint dripping!

In your opinion.....

You miss a very big point though Pedro, buying may slow or stop but who is selling in droves right now? Yes retail players getting sucked into reducing but apart from shorts (that are now reducing, well at least Citadel, which a few weeks ago was apparently the all knowing short party, what do they know now given their position is smaller than pre results?), where are the large sellers?

The brokers have undershot the rating here, and like usual they miss the technical picture most of the time. 2021-2023 was very much a fundamental story playing out and hence the got the view relatively correct. At this price and the accumulation going on, technicals play a much bigger role.

This is also the first day we have seen sustained price action recovery post big buying end of day. Retail traders are adding here and market makers look like they sold all their inventory to MA. They are bidding with us, shorts and MA now. Let's see how the day progresses but I feel like the picture is becoming more positive, albeit technically. And remember, all this data is now in the past and guidance is very very low at -12-17%. It doesn't take much in revenue terms to beat this expectation.

I doubt he would be accumulating 15-20% (50-75mm GBP) to see that fall in value in a takeover offer. Also under UK law, the takeover offer must be at least the higher price paid by the buyer(s) over the last 12mo, don't think they are allowed to legally bid below that. So 38-40p is the lowest assuming this happens fairly soon. And given a lot of holders still, they will need to entice them with a slight premium. What that level is is anyone's guess but its not going to be £1!

Citadel cut their short twice in two days, back to below their level before results at 0.98% now. So small ticket retail sellers during the day are losing out here to MA and even short buy backs.

There are two sticking points. The market makers know that MA is the only large buyer of this, he is going to take out the free float as long as prices remain in the 29-33p range, given he didn't support it as much in the h30s, seems logical he is trying to accumulate as many shares here as possible. There are evidently still some short sellers (although that will get harder as borrowing will get tricker as the free float falls) but also plenty small ticket sellers across the entire day to gather and sell into MA. At some point, if another large investor decides to add, this will definitely move higher. Until then we will have to wait for better data, free float falling to a level that makes short sellers uncomfortable or a market event. Has anyone considered the possibility that MA and Kamanis work together to take this private? Kamani Snr + Umar + MA = 28.89% as of the last RNS update. 30% needed to propose a takeover offer, and may have reached that threshold. I am just spit balling here but any thoughts?

The large buyer at the end of the day wanted every share that was on market makers books, suspect easier to trade into one massive bid.

Which platform?

Looks like i was wrong.

Frasers rarely buy on Monday and Fridays, but lets see.

Volume is so low, doesn't mean anything this move.

The guys who were certain this would be at 20p because shorts increased are now looking for excuses. Maybe not too different from the longs before results. But gotta move with new information and MA buying at 28-32p range isn't irrelevant. If you think it is then don't wonder why this share may rerate higher.

Umar Kamani's investment only makes sense based on the idea this was going to be either taken over or reverse bought or something along those lines. As you say, intriguing times.

It's better to be thought a fool, than to speak, and remove all doubt.

Pedro, have to admit, you weren't the most detailed poster, and whilst always negative, at least you focused on some of the actual issues. In the last two days, you have started to use the word "bust" a lot more, which is weird given you were talking about a low of 22p only a few days ago, which implies even you thought this had some intrinsic value, what has changed so quickly? Also, BHS was already in administration when MA was interested to pick off some of the stores (he actually didn't buy any in the end), so not sure what you are trying to equivocate in your point there, he had nothing to do with BHS?!

That was prior to results, so enough sellers to keep lid on things. As i said yesterday, this is very much playing the odds now. If takeover interest starts to take hold as the view, this will certainly be moving higher. Time will tell.

Results are out and they have not only a weaker position but have guided even further lower for H2. I had a few parameters that would have meant I reduced or exited my position, and whilst the headline numbers fell, they managed to burn less cash than I was expecting and they also improved margins across the business line (US fell to 58% due to duties but still well ahead of all other regions, so revenue there will generate strong profitability).

At the same time we have seen shorts increase into and after the results and literally all major bank analysts downgrade the stock, obviously drawing a straight line from their last revision to now and continuing the line down, that is basically how they come to their "targets".

Yet with all this, the share price has managed to cling onto the 30p line (albeit towards the end of the session for now). I am not saying the share price is out of the woods but what new headline, data point, story could follow that takes this down? Or is there more chance that the data surprises to the upside, or we see more large buyers emerging over the coming days/weeks. Sometimes you have to play the odds, and whilst I admit entering at 37-38p was early, i don't feel like i am against the odds at this level for a share re-rate.