Member Info for PDS2023

I know this has been the topic of much debate and I sympathise with both sides as it is definitely not a concrete number. Saying that, and similar to my short interest calculations, you can make some assumptions to try and get a rough idea. Firstly, I will assume that the 1st November holdings data on Boohoo's website is accurate for holders that have not since released an RNS notifying us otherwise (Umar is now at 3.01% and Frasers at 21.49%, those are the only differences)

Frasers 21.49%

Mahmud Kamani 12.45%

Schroders 8.49%

Camelot 5.60%

Boohoo 4.91%

Rabia Kamani 4.00%

Baillie Gifford 3.96%

Umar Kamani 3.01%

If we make the assumption that this list of holders are "locked/sticky" capital, that amounts to 63.91%.

The implied free float is then 36.09%.

Short interest (given we don't get updates on MW or Systematica as they are below the 0.5% reporting threshold, I have for simplicity assumed their last short update is what they still hold) is 79.52mm shares ~ 17.37% of the implied free float above.

Whether institutions, brokerage firms, retail investors, there are still 460mm shares that are trading around (most going into Frasers as the MMs fish for sellers), so there is still plenty of "liquidity". That being said, we are getting to levels where the freefloat is tight. Hope this helps and remember, its just implied not a factual figure.

Hi pipedreamer, appreciate the need for TA on this board and my previous comments have definitely touched on charting and technicals via shorts analysis. That being said, we are indeed at an exciting and critical juncture for a few reasons:

1. A strong downtrend from 2023 peaks (7th Aug, 1st Sep, 15th Nov, which also clips the May peaks) was broken to the upside on 6th Dec, and we made a strong move towards c42p. Since the start of the year we have descended back to that trend line which is now acting as a strong support. We are yet to have a daily close below, even though we have breached several times on shorter timeframes. This is a positive move imo.

2. The uptrend from the lows which started after the Oct half yearly update (3rd Oct, 1st Nov, 30th Nov), was again retested several times since the start of 2024, and similar to the downtrend has yet to breach on the daily timeframe. Moreover, this uptrend meets the downtrend in point 1 @ 34p at some point in tomorrow's trading session. So two converging trend lines that are being respected start to portray a more bullish outlook. Ironically, a move lower could actually lead to a stronger move higher (triangles typically false break and then move in line with the trend, take a look at the NASDAQ before the Dec pump) but this is not always necessary. Given the MA bid not sure how many more shares can be wrangled at these levels before MMs need to move the price higher to find sellers.

3. And finally, we have breached the daily 100MA twice but closed firmly above twice since the start of 2024. Another bullish technical sign.

The 5minute chart is starting to show signs of life again, breaking some MAs to the upside and also forming higher highs on the Keltner band, but this is work in progress.

All in, as I have said, the volatility is high on this stock but fundamentally, the expectations/reality gap is starting to narrow considerably, Frasers constant adding means 30% is within reach now at which point shorts will definitely start to question how much longer they want to be in this trade (MW exiting is a huge sign about the possibility, they are a UK based hedge fund that typically know a lot more than they let on, in both directions) and finally the free float is being sucked up, sadly the poor retail investor is being suckered into selling into MMs that are accumulating purely for MAs benefit here. Whether a corp action is on the cards remains to be seen, and I agree with Wolf that a merger doesn't add up given the similarity but also the huge debt burden that ASOS have. I think a bigger play for Frasers would be to buy Topshop and PLT from each, at a decent premium, so the share price could benefit from the cash injection in both instances. The corp action stuff is pure spec though, so its just additional thoughts to think about. I am still hopeful here vs the last 18mo.

Whilst I have not got first hand information that the trading update is indeed canceled, if the investor relations email I have read on the board is true, this will be the first trading update they have ever missed for the Oct-Dec period. I looked through historical updates and there have been both good, average and bad ones (especially last year) so I don't see why they have decided to abandon it this year. There is obviously a possibility that Oct-Dec was poorer than expected but they would have taken that into account in the Oct mid year guidance which basically said -17% is a possibility in revenue terms yoy to Feb 2024. So one has to consider this is for non-financials reasons.

Such a non-event article but the reality has to be considered, which is there are still incredibly weak holders of this stock, if MMs can get sellers to come out based on headlines like this, good for them frankly, it is their job to get liquidity and we know the whale is looking to add so fulfilling his demand is their key job here. I shouldn't be surprised given the type of posts on this board but we still have plenty of short termist holders for this sort of price action to prevail. A lot is probably to do with the AIM listing, which is unlikely to change anytime soon. As I have said, sit tight and wait for more data as the expectations are rock bottom, shorts have not been increasing recently and the market globally is in much better shape.

Indeed a nice technical bounce and it held the 21EMA on a weekly timeframe, which has been a decent support level in the past. This whole week has been a technical move, even in global equities, I would not read a whole lot into the dynamics given its still a patchy week in terms of liquidity. Next week is when you can start to make some real decisions. Also, given the typical trading update is 14th Jan and usually lands on a Tues, in the past when 14th Jan lands on a weekend they have released the TU the week prior, so could be setup for that on Thurs next week (not conclusive but just a possibility).

I am going out on a limb and saying we have just hit the low of this move. Drawing a trend line from the May, August and Nov peaks, we initially broke the downtrend in early Dec (which i wrote about at the time) and we saw the huge move towards 42. We have just retested this trend line, a healthy sign for any breakout, so I would be looking to higher prices from here.

Eleva are a much more typical European equities firm, so they won't be trading in and out based on technical outlook. Very much a fundamental view, either they will be right or wrong, but they wont change their position much in between. Trading update will likely be the catalyst for a change or even the year end results, assuming we are not at like 50-60p in which case a stop loss may come into effect!

Be careful in jumping to the conclusion, remember Millenium and Enismore went below the 0.5% reporting threshold over the last couple of days, so if they haven't reduced again the short interest would still be 1% higher than is quoted ie 4.45%, much closer to Boohoo. That being said, there could well be other shorts involved

What is clearly evident in recent trading statements globally is the post-covid store hype seems to be clearly falling back into place and the resurgence of online sales is driving revenues and profit margins. JD Sports has 70% store based sales vs 35% at Next, hence the huge difference in results and guidance. JD Sports is also a very unique situation given they missed on revenue and margin targets, they did the risky thing of overpromising and now have underdelivered on that promise. I keep talking about expectations vs reality because in markets that is all that matters (hence why even companies reporting falling revenues and profits can see huge surges in their share price, because whilst down it outperformed the markets expectations to the downside). Next is also incredibly unique, they update the market on any small change to their latest assumptions (intra-period) which means the gap between expectations and reality can never be too wide, that has been undoubtedly supportive of their share price over recent years. Now Boohoo is online only, so its fair to say that one would expect better results than equivalent store heavy retailers. Expectations have been smashed with revenue guidance in the negative teens and margins at the lower end, so I see the outcome as cautiously optimistic at the trading update in Jan. It is a shame that AIM companies don't inform the market nearly as much as other FTSE companies, that would definitely help to reduce the volatility we see in their share price.

There is likely a large limit buyer order trying to be filled. Has happened many times in the past and given first few trading days of the year are an easy time to target weaker holders, not surprised by the overreaction here to the downside. Market moves like this have been seen in so many shares over the years, never trust the first trading week of the year, just go back to Jan 2023 and see what happened to the US treasury market, got smacked so hard because a few large hedgies used the low liquidity to gap the market. Wait until next week to make any real judgement calls on this share.

This may sound odd but this move lower is one of the healthiest signs that the share price is going to move higher. The limited volume that is trading plus looking at chart overlaps the move looks quite similar to the setup seen just after the IPO in 2015/16. Testing the weekly 21EMA @ 36.2 (after 8EMA crossed above the 21EMA a few weeks back) is a solid support for price to push higher. It is easy to look at this price action and bail, that is exactly what the MMs and shorts are hoping for. Whoever is saying that results were seen early and hence market dumping is talking garbage because I would be worried if only 6mm shares were sold on such poignant inside knowledge, so disregard those posters in their entirety, complete nonsense. The TU is of course the crucial piece here but as I have said for many months, it's reality vs expectations. Expectations are rock bottom, as long as revenues don't fall by 17% or more this year and they see accretive sales via margin growth, the turn is already happening. Keep strong in the face of these moves, easier said than done but long term rewards favour the brave. Best of luck all.

If you watch this intraday price action where the bid just tails off like 0.5-1p in a matter of seconds is actually very healthy to see. Even at these prices MMs are struggling to find volume it seems, so shorts in the 40-45p range must be looking quite concerned right now and trying not to show their hand. Morning volume seems to be gobbled up and price marches higher and then volume just falls but prices stabilise, the foundation of support is looking better. Of course the fundamental backdrop will be key in the new year. MW are reducing like there is no tomorrow, so either they see no downside left OR they have got wind of something and are acting fast. I would just hold tight, 30mm of shares need to be bought back over the next 5p range to close shorts at entry levels and that is giving them the benefit that borrow cost is basically zero. The macro backdrop is certainly improving and the UK looks even cheaper given how fast inflation is falling and we have yet to see the benefit of a dovish central bank. I think q1-2 will be better shaped than recent years.

I have done the maths on all their purchases, but agree there are some assumptions because below 0.5% the data isn't available on the fca website but the market was stable at that time. I think they have some headroom but not a huge amount.

Let's see what Eleva do, it's right on their entry so have lost out on a 25% gain from the lows. Losing unrealised pnl makes even the most savy investors do weird things.

You missed the boat on the share tab as it only shows the most recent trades. the large blocks will be visible on any trading platform and the volume indicator. c11mm shares traded between 1045-11am

37.1, based on some lag assumptions from short tracking data

Hi JeremyP, sorry what do you mean? As in why they haven't been unwinding? Or their WA entry price for the short?

MW reduced again -0.13% yesterday, only accounting for 1.6mm shares vs the 16mm traded

Just don't sell your shares into this vacuum, however bleak they are making it look. It doesn't take much volume for this to reverse higher and then some.

This only makes sense if someone has put in a large buy order but at a decent discount to market. Shares are being accumulated to fulfill that order but just speculation on my part. Not sure if L2 data shows anything like this.