Member Info for paulmetcalfe

Mr Gnome--that made me smile " I suspect they might play the cover drive in Dec 1."
In cricketing terms, I think Martin Hogan has seen off a pretty hostile opening spell, while managing to keep the scoreboard ticking over. A cover drive might be nice but a forward push past the bowler that trickles over the ropes is still 4 runs.
Id be quite happy for him to send for another pair of gloves :-)

Hopefully some good news Mr T. However , I think that Martin Horgan will play things pretty cagily and if we have exceeded the production figures by a fair amount, will keep some back so they can show some real progress for the next production quarter. Im not too bothered about the share price at the moment, but hope it doesnt go down. So long as we are making a good profit and getting a good/ really good or great dividend then that would do for me, as I have been reinvesting the dividends. At some point I will start to take the cash.

I was just looking at the past dividend history. It would be nice to get back to the 13, 15, 16 cents again but it feels like whenever we have had a good dividend some bad news crops up ad the share price tanks. It would be nice if we got a bit of decent luck, Martin Horgan pulling a rabbit out of the hat and getting things on track and a decent dividend. Has anyone heard from Siko?

I agree Dasut. We all want to make some money here, but we dont want lives risked any more than the usual mining risks.
Heres hoping that the "muck shifting exercise" goes well and then production increases to pre "wall" and beyond levels.
It does look like Martin Horgan has made some tough calls and not made too much of a fuss about them. I dont know anything about gold mining, but I suppose as with most things, if you get the basics right then things should be easier and better later on.

Rebess--I feel your pain. Your frustration comes through at times. Ive been here about 9 years now , buying on the way up and the way down. If it wasnt for the dividends I'd probablly be down.
Im hoping that Martin Horgan has some good news for us soon and pulls a rabbit or 3 out of the hat. It would be nice to get those golden flip flops before Im in a coffin. This is really painful when you look at the price just over a year ago.
One thing that keeps me going, is the thought that if Egypt want more investors in the country, they really need for Centamin to be a success. Another thing is didnt Cowichan find that 46? big alloy bodied trucks had been ordered? That is not the sort of thing to do if all you are going to be shifting is dirt is it? I mean you hope that there will be a fair bit of gold in there as well .
Im not saying that Martin Horgan has been underplaying things, but if he had got things back on track a bit earlier, then it wouldnt have looked like the previous management had b-llsed up. I think enough time has passed now that he can produce better figures than forecast and substantially better ones the next quarter.
Im hoping we will get up near the £3 a share that Sotolo forecast in summer of last year, in the not too distant future, but in the shortish term, Id be happy with the £1.30 that D ryan forecast the last time he was in this share earlier in the year.

Who knows? Maybe Andrew Maguire will finally be right.
Mr T--you really do need to wind your neck in in here. I agree with a lot of what you put , but here is not the place. Whatever you think, we have to live with Brexit now. Do you think we will have another Referendum like the Scots do with independence? :-)

Yes Mr T--we have been fed rather a lot of c-ap over the years at Centamin. Hopefully it will come good for us sooner rather than later. Its fingers crossed for that and Martin Horgan knowing his stuff and being straight. He has been left a fair bit to clean up and i dont just mean the pile of dirt. Im hoping he is sorting stuff out a basic level, reguarding getting gold out of the gound and also putting energy saving and cost cutting measures in place. I think he is probably under promising a bit at the moment, partly so he can produce a rabbit out of the hat at a latter stage. I think that maybe that "rabbit" will be in the form of a small special dividend next year.
If Batie West is sold off and the money goes into the bank and things open up with clearing away the pile of dirt, things could start to look up with the new areas and those 44 new trucks coming into play.
Anyhow, fingers crossed ---------another 6 month wait for anything really good I reckon.

Just a thought seeing that. It mentions the original 160 Km" area. Therefore we must assume that, as the disputed area was not offerered in the recent round of bids, then it is no longer in dispute-----------------Or if it is, then the courts will finally kick out the outstanding court case.

You cannot beat a bit of monday morning cheer from Sotolo!
I was chatting on the phone to a friend the other night, talking about covid , lockdowns etc. It seems while people have been furloughed and getting 80% of wages for nothing, and not being able to spend it on holidays or going out, that they have been getting work done on their houses. Extensions, new bathrooms, kitchens, fencing etc.
Here are a few thoughts. Once the work is done, does that mean that the tradesmen will be is less demand? The same when people want to start spending on holdays and pubs and bars? Will they hit the credit cards again or will they be maxed out? Again, if they have all this work done now, does it mean that building materials that are in short supply now will be readily available in 6 months time?
Without setting Mr T off (please dont Mr T), I think we know that all this covid stuff is going to need paying for and we will be paying for it for a long time. Im sure a bit of "austerity measures" and "we are all in it together" will be coming.
We know that the government wants interest rates and inflation (reported not REAL) to stay low as people are in debt up to their eyeballs and a couple of percent rise in interest rates could push people into bankruptcy and house repossessions.

Anyhow , hopefully gold and Centamin will come good sooner rather than later.

We know that hindsight is a wonderful thing, but Sotolo, do you ever think that you would have been better starting to build your house? With property prices having gone up, cashing in your chips here and starting to build would have been a better option dont you think?

I think most of what is in the results has been expected. Id like to give a slightly different POSITIVE! look at the not too distant future. We are all hoping that Martin Horgan is a decent bloke, especially after what appears to have gone on at Centamin prior to him taking over. We also hope he knows his onions. Lets just suppose he is keeping his cardsclose to his chest for now and look at what COULD happen in the not too distant future.
(1) The new licenses will be signed off.
(2) work will progress clearing away the mess from previous years
(3) The energy saving and the Solar will start to kick in
(4) Just supposing, as I have no idea of its worth--------------that Batie West sold entirely , or some sort of agreement reached where it is sold at a discount but Centamin takes a % of any future profits. If it was sold entirely, then the money could go in the bank and/ or maybe used to fund a dividend.

There are a few other things that would be nice. Sorting out the court case being one!!! :-) . Gold slowly making its way upwards would be another nice one.
Didnt Cowichan find out that Centamin had taken delivery of some new Egyptian built trucks with others in the pipeline?
That is saying that things are looking to pick up ?
Anyhow, fingers crossed and hopefully the next 3 to 6 months things will start to get better.

Thanks Sotolo. I think I put up last week that if the price remains around this level until after the next dividend, I wont be too bothered as it willl mean more shares for the reinvested dividend. After than I'll probably take the dividends in cash as I need to live! You would think that with all the money printing and the actual, rather than reported inflation figures that gold would be on the up. I'm crossing my fingers for a decent dividend this time and better news and higher gold prices along the way. There seems to be a bit more of the getting the basics right since Martin Horgan took over. Again, fingers crossed that the new areas work out and either the other assets come on line or get sold for a decent price/ AND/OR some sort of partnership with them.

Sotolo. around this time last year, when the share price was over £2 , you were prediciting £3 in the not too distant future. As we know, the STUFF hit the fan and the price took one hell of a kicking. Assuming a few things (dangerous , I know) (1) That the removal of waste goes to schedule or better (2) because of this, costs go down and production goes up (3) gold price remains around this level or maybe up to $1900 , what would you expect the the share price to be then? I take it you still hold over 600.000 shares as i couldnt see you selling them after halving?

Can anyone remember what average POG that Centamin were working on for calculating profits and dividends for this year?
I've a feeling it was around $1750 ish or so? So far we are pretty much holding above that this year.
Any predictions (Hoping not to jinx it) for the next divi?

Well I hope the Sp doesnt go down, but Im not too bothered if it doesnt go up, so long as there is a good dividend, which will be reinvested this time. After that, Ill probably take the cash from future dividends. Hopefully, there will be good news and maybe late in the year or early next year, we will reach the pre "Bad News" share price again.
I suppose after all the turmoil of the last few years, "Good News" would be fairly quiet and along the lines of " Waste removal ahead of schedule. Ounces mined slightly ahead of target and contracts for new parcels of land signed" .
Maybe one day, the court case will finally get kicked out as well-----------------------but Im not getting any younger!

Rebess that one made me laugh. I could almost hear the gritted teeth. Yes we have been through a lot on here but hopefully things will start working out properly now, rather having than the false dawns, "material inaccuracies" and dodgy figures and practices of the past.
By the way, does anyone remember what the predicted dividend is for later in the year AND/OR total for the year?

Yes Mr Bond. It is looking like that. Hopefully things will change soon. I read the board and have done for years. I remember "making hay" seeming to trade very well but then missed th rise from aroung the mid 50's all the way up over £2. (Wish Id sold a pile then and kept my nerve to get back at these prices).
Andrew Maguire has been banging on for years and hopefully he will be proved right soon! Kinesis doesnt seem to have made much difference either.
I wish had the money that some on here do to "Top up" every time the share drops and the foresight to sell when i have "made a nice little profit" .
I remember D. Ryan a few months back (who i think did get in and out quickly with a profit) saying then that he expected £1.30 in the short term, from the price then of around £1.10.

And who can forget Sotolo's call last year , around this time of reaching £3 soon??? :-)
Hopefully the current call will be as wrong and we will get the rise.

The amounts of debt are mind blowing and you would think at some point gold will take off? Maybe , a bit like in the Hitchhikers guide to the galaxy , we will adopt the leaf as currency and burn forests to stop inflation? I HOPE NOT!!

I was thinking of something along those lines. Why is the price of gold going down? Is it because America and other countries want to buy gold cheaply to add to the reserve gold they are supposed to have? BUT if the price is going down like this, then surely Russia and China will be be adding to their reserves as well???

Well Mr T. I think you are a decent chap, although some of your posts about Brexit etc can get a bit tedious. That is not to say that I dont agree with you over a lot of it.
Martin Horgan seems to have his head screwed on and be a straight sort of chap, unike Pardey. I think sorting out the problems he has been left with at Sukari and also the new concession areas makes more sense than extending out to B/F .
For the sake of argument, lets say that we get decent terms with the new areas and someone comes in with a reasonable offer for B/F-------------How do you think that would look? In my eyes that would be a pretty good thing.
I too am waiting for this share to finally take off in a "Proper" way and not the surges and big drops we have had over the years, due to bad news and bad management.

Whenever the price dips, I try to look at it this way :-) , more shares with the dividend. Did they mention what the predicted dividend will be later in the the year? I thought it was supposed to be quiet a high one? I'll reinvest that one as well then maybe think off taking the cash in futre. Ive been in Centamin since 2012---------------kicked myself plenty of times. I sold some RMG last year when they were about the same price as Centamin! (That one is still hurting!) . I think I am actually down on paper with Centamin now, without the divis, but hoping that things will work out with the new bloke and the licensing round Sukari. THE COURT CASE! --------------will we still be alive when that gets sorted ?:-)
If we get the land round Sukari, maybe the safest option is selling off the African projects and focusing on Egypt?

Maybe the best thing would be to sell the West Africa stuff off to another established miner, and then (hopefully) invest in the the new areas near Sukari?
By the way, what will the expected divi be later in the year??? I seem to remember the total divi for the year being about 12 or 13 cents? Or is my memory going?

Sorry to be boring and repeating this from earlier--BUT did anyone notice this?

"We continue to believe there is a significant opportunity to unlock further value at Sukari, which we intend to exploit with a focused exploration programme across the entire 160km2 concession area."

So that is the full 16)km2 area and not the 3km area.