Member Info for paulmetcalfe

Crossing fingers so as not to jinx it Mr T. As a few have said the share price is all over at the moment but hopefully settle to more or less level today.
IF so , I think that will show that there is confidence in Martin Horgan. You are fully aware of the last few years and the history of the wall. Normally a 6% increase in production would have fallen way short of what had been promised----AND the dividend cut would have been the icing on a very unpalatable cake.
The dividend cut has (I think) been expected and priced in. RNS with nothing scary is now considered good.
Im hoping that Martin Horgan has now seen off the new ball and the opening bowlers and is going to start to move through the gears. Im also hoping at some point he signals to the pavilion for a fresh pair of gloves and a heavy bat!

I think you are missing the point--------It was artificially high. If what was going on had been known about at the time, would it have been that high?
Lets say Martin Horgan starts high grading now and the profit and the dividend doubles, BUT you know that in a couple of years , that you will have to clear waste again and the dividend will be cut. Would the share pricet go up and would it be a fair price?
Wouldnt you rather have the job done properly with the same (or better as things move along) average dividend over 4 years than a more reckless approach?

Sotolo , you always say that the share price is at a fairish price. Was is as a fairish price 2 1/2 years ago ,when it was around the 220 mark and you were saying it was going to 300?
You mention the reduced dividends. Im not happy with this one being cut to 2 1/2 cents, but hoping it will get better from now on. If the last lot who were in charge had been doing a better job, rather than high grading, to create a higher profit and dividend, so they could get out at an artificially high price, the divis could have been reduced by a 1/3 for a couple of years and the "Wall" problem addressed using that money. If they had done that, we would be at a higher price today with a higher dividend. They robbed Peter to pay Paul (but not me) and now all the poor Peters are suffering for it.
People say that this is a "great trading share" , but it is only good if you trade and get it right.
I've said before, without dividends, shares are just a pyramid scheme. Someone who got in here at say 100 -130 and got out at 200 -220 would be really happy----------but the poor sod who got in at 200 ---220 and holds now would not be.

I cannot really read/ understand the updates, but it does seems "steady" and a 6% increase in the amount of gold mined is not bad. As the waste removal comes to an end, things should look up.
Fingers crossed for gold to stay at a decent price and one day we might come good here and get those golden flip flops.

It would be nice if the results were good and the price went up! How long is it since that happened?
Gold staying at this level or rising would help in the longer term-------and should bring lower costs and bigger dividends.
As I said recently, Martin Horgan could walk away with no loss of face, so Im guessing he is staying because he thinks he can improve things.
Boring but a bit better than "Steady as she goes" , should help bring the credibility levels back up a bit more.
Lets be honest, if he suddenly promised a lot, we would all be panicking!

I think that Sotolo sold shares to buy Hoc and Ths and then bought back in here later on after the price had dropped here.
My average is around 110 --112 now I think. That includes some I bought in the 30's a long time ago and some at over 200 pre "The wall" and when Sotolo was talking of £3 a share. Obviously I regret not buying more in the 30's and buying some in the 200s and on the way down. I did manage to find a bit to buy some in the low to mid 80s a couple of times.

Maybe Im getting too old--but there seems to have been a bit of niggle creeping in between various people on there the last month. So , just remember this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUOxEwCuEgQ

Yes it would be nice to get production up to 500,000 or at least very near it. We now know what was going on when the production was high and the steps having to be taken now to rectify the result of those production methods.
I think/HOPE! that clearing away the waste will give them plenty of room for starting to up production from now on, but not at the cost of facing the same problem down the line.
Maybe the mining experts on here can give an idea about whether it is better to carry on digging deeper for gold or to just widen the area? I would have thought that at some point the extra time taken to get the material to the surface starts to weigh on costs, unless you are in a really good vein?

Its Friday , so gold usually goes down. Usually it gets hammered when America comes on line and when we go off line in the afternoon.
Usually when gold is rising a bit, NOFEAR comes on and starts telling us where it is headed ------and gold falls.

So today Im hoping that he wont come on, America wont smack down gold and we get a nice little rise of ten dollars or so going into the weekend.

Oh---and a few Centamin director buys would still be nice. If any of you are reading, come on and get your hands in your pockets and give us a bit of a boost!

Hi Mr T. Thanks for finding that out. It might be an idea for the future for Centamin and Sukari etc. It would save another "wall problem" on any future nearby pits.

I hope they dont cut the divi any more Mr T. Also, with a bit of luck, Im hoping after the next one, that the divis will increase to a decent level, similar (or better!) than ones in the past, but without the dodgy practises that went on at that time.
As Ive said before, things could hav been done more smoothly and the total amount of dividends over the years would be the same, but the company and the share price would be in a better position, because things would have been done properly.
Some of that excess money in the past could have been spent on the "Heap" and opening things up ready for getting more gold out. We probably would have had a more consistant dividend.
You and me know they story so no need to go over it again.
It would be nice to start opening up areas alongside Sukari .

And here is a question for the mining experts.
If you have gotten most or all of the gold out of a pit and moved on to an adjacent area, can you back fill into the pit and would that cut costs???

We know that shares can go up and down. We seen the highs of £2-30 here with the prediction of shortly going over £3. Weve seen both Hoc and Ths tipped, and the rise and fall. Weve seen Ocado go near £30 (£30!!!?) and fall. Weve seen Siriaus rise and fail. I think there was someone on here about 18 months ago when we were at a similar price, going on about going into Boohoo at £1.05 and they are around the 50p mark now.
A few of you people are working or have worked in mining. You invested in and believed? in Centamin. So do you know your business or job? --------or do you think you were taken in and hoodwinked??
People have talked about kinesis and Basle 3 making a difference? Have they?

I dont know about any of that stuff.
My feeling is that if the previous management had kept things slower and steadier, over the years we would have still received the same total dividend over the period, but with a higher share price than now and more confidence in the company. Look at it like the England cricket team--------their average results over the last couple of years. They do not look brilliant on paper. But look at the results since Stokes took over!! Yet is is largely the same players. They have momentum and confidence.
A positive for me is Martin Horgan seems to want to stay in the job. If he left now, I dont think his reputation would be any worse than when he came. People in "the know" probably realise he has had to clean up after what the last lot left him with. I think he is going slow and steady and when things start to improve , it will be positive for the share price as he will have built trust by not over promising.
Having said that, I would still like to see him and other management buy shares on a regular basis.

Hope?

Obviously the high dividends were nice but we are paying for it now with lower ones. If they had gone slow and steady, we would have got the same average dividend over the period of years.
What they did was a bit naughty.
I've been told that police cars are serviced at certain intervals and if you buy one at auction you may be lucky and get a good one that has just been serviced and had worn parts replaced OR you could get a dog, that a lot was worn out on.
Some people were lucky with this share and got in then got out when it was over £2 -------------others bought in at that price and are suffering / losing out because of the previous deceit.
I reckon that if the share was now the £3 you were forecasting before the troubles, you would not be bothered about a low dividend as you would cash out?

That might be the case Bob-----------but maybe you forgot the " suggest you buy shares now and get out the same time as Josef"?
I dont think to keep going over what happened is going to do any good Mr T and maybe might put people off investing here as well.
I think you are right about what has happened and long term it has not done us any good. Slower and steadier would have yielded roughly the same amount of gold (averaged out over the years) with less drama, more confidence in the managment and company and probably a higher share price.

Many years ago, a previous owner of my property hade a load of limstone put into the ground. I try and reclaim a little bit of it each year. I've had to use a mattock on some of it as I cannot get a spade in------------and some of it a pickaxe!
The way i prefer to do it is to get all the material out, then sieve it, take the stone down the garden and put the soil back into the hole (having added twigs and compost first). It is the way I prefer to do it, rather than dig a smaller hole and do it in stages. If there was gold in there, I wouldnt get any until the sieving stage. Anyhow --Im sure you understand what Im on about.

I sort of agree with the last bit ---------but I hope we do start to get bigger dividends again fairly soon. Without dividends then shares are just a pyramid scheme arent they? I've said before that i bought some shares near the peak and even with the divis am well out of pocket with those. Overall my average is around £1.10 --£1.12.
I wouldnt be bothered for a couple of years if the price stayed around that mark if we got decent divis-------which i would re invest. However at some point I would like to start taking cash from the divis.
So ---I guess I would like the price of gold to go up and costs to come down. Then we need one of those bonanza grades to get things going.

So when do you think we will hit the £3 a share you once predicted? (just teasing)

I totally get why you are upset Mr T , but I think you dont need to bang on about it so much. I dont think it does much for confidence. Also pasting up old things about the court case or whatever could be confusing as someone might think it is current and not historic.
A couple of thoughts about the wall and maybe try to look at a few postives, moving forward?
It really does look (to me) like the last lot, really went after the high grade stuff and then when the situation was Iffy, did one. Thes could have not gone after quite so much gold and cleared some waste away and carried on for another few years before the stuff hit the fan.
When you think about it, the high grading didnt really benefit Egypt/ Erma as things have had to slow down to try to rectify the mess.
Im guessing Martin Horgan was aware of the situation when he took over and it looks like he is trying to do things properly and also he intends to stay for a good while. Could he have carried on high grading for a couple of years and then got out, leaving the problem for someone else?
Regarding a take over? I think that the situation in Egypt, with the speed of legal matters, plus any profit share agreement would put most people off.
With the new licensing, I could see a small company hoping to get some gold out of the ground quick and then do one if a take over offer came in.
SOOO ---the positives? It looks like Martin Horgan is in it for the long haul (pardon the pun) and with the waste clearing is doing more than he has too, so he can get a full swing at things in the not too distant future. The situation with legal and Erma is likely to stop any takeovers.
Hopefully gold will rise and the powers that be wont be able to blag their way out off the situation by creating more money from thin air.
I think you once joked about the worth of physical gold and that it would only be worth the same amount of physical gold.?
We know there are notes for many times more gold than physically exists, so what happens if there is a demand for gold? What do you back it with?
Im getting old. I could do with Centamin getting their act together and gold rising as well------before I shuffle off my mortal coil.

It is true a big buy by Martin Horgan would be nice to see, -----but regular buys of 20,000 + by the rest of them would show a bit of solidarity and may give a bit more confidence.

We know what has gone on Mr T and it is a pity that no one is accountable for it. Sadly if the investors who were duped by the goings on, took some form of legal action, it would just make things worse for investors.
As you said--we were going off what was being reported .
Im hoping we stay above a £1 , just as it looks better, but I will be reinvesting my dividend again when it is due (always seems a long time off).
I suppose we have to cross our fingers that gold rises in the mean time and that basle 3 actaully does some good.
As I get older and even more cynical, Im wonder wheter the US and the UK are going to blag their way out of a recession again------and the fat cats will get even fatter and the national debts will get even bigger.

i think every time it goes a bit quiet for Centamin, we could do with a few director buys to give confidence. 20,000 at a time would not hurt them at all.

Come on No Fear-----add a few more exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!

At the moment Im not worried if the price of the share doesnt go up with the price of gold. At least the company will be making a profit and we might see a bigger dividend. If you are reinvesting the divi then you get more shares for your money.
If you do not get a dividend from a share then really the price is a pyramid scheme! Look at Ocado. I dont think they have ever paid a dividend but the share price went into the highg£20's !!???? before coming back down to to below £5 ( I think). It is now around £7. Some people will have bought low and sold on the way up to the £20's (was it £28?) and some will have bought at that price and have lost out a lot.

I bought some shares here before the wall thing happened, when there was talk of £3 a share. So i bought some at over £2. It is highly unlikely that we will see that price in the near future, so I have probably lost out even taking the dividends into account. I reinvested the last dividend in the mid 80's , so if at some point I decide to sell some of them (at hopefully nearer £2 than £1!) then I will be in front and had the dividends as well.
Years ago there was someone on here who seemed to do well buying and selling on the rises and drops, but he got out around 55p. We are now double that and have had about 8 years of dividends.
So swings and roundabouts for some of the day traders as well.

I hope that you are right but you have said it 4 times so far this year.
Maybe you need a couple of more exclamation marks? !!!!!!!