Member Info for paulmetcalfe

I hope so Mr T.

I think regular updates on the clearance would help a bit. If we get to a point where it is "should be finished in 6 months" or "Should be finished in 3 months" then that is something to look forward to that is not that far away--------and should give the share price a boot as AISC should drop quite a bit once the contract has ended.

Here is something (not Centamin related) for you to think about :-) -----------What happens if we go over to a cashless society? For QE if they cannot print money, do they just create some more electrical currency? I think part of the problem with Mortgage rates and high inflation now is that younger people have become used to low interest rates and paying for things without physical money, so they don't understand budgeting and saving.

Mr T---I think this share tends to get a bit of a quick rise and then sink back down again slowly so it feels painful. We know that it rose very quickly years ago and we now think that the figures and the dividends were being manipulated to enable certain people in on it to get out at a high share price.

Like you I doubt any of the other parcels of land will be mined in the near future and I cannot understand why Egypt/ Erma doesn't do better by Centamin to encourage other miners to start mining.

As you know, I would like to see regular director buys to give more confidence.

At least Martin Horgan has not over promised so far. I think we are working on an average price for gold at $1850? As always I hope we will hit or exceed targets in the next updates and a bit after that maybe some good news about clearing the waste away and an end date to that. If we get most of that and lower AISC then maybe Cowichan will buy some shares and post something positive.

I cannot remember the figures for ounces mined and AISC when they share took off to over £2 and Sotolo was predicting £3 (that seems so long ago now and £2 seems so far away) but hopefully we will start to get nearer those figures and costs without the bad practices that s-rew-d us over.

Hi Mr T. The garden is not doing too well. Some of the little apple trees have very few apples on them and the same with a few of the plums. Probably due to winter dragging on?? I've had a few black and red currants and with the cuttings I took, hopefully next year will be better. No luck at all with turnips or onions growing so far??? At lease the courgettes have finally started to produce and the tomato plants are still alive so far. The garden is a bit like these shares----always hoping that next year will be better.

I actually think I'll go for gold toe capped boots instead of flip flops. :-)

Well I think , without checking, my last lot were 105 so I'm well down on them. I'm also down on some post office (IDS) I bought as well. BUT I did get some IDS at 206 and sold them yesterday for 230 so made a few hundred quid on those. I left an order for some Centamin at 92.4 which went through this morning-----and I'm now down on those a little. I did want to get them below 92 but didn't want to wait and lose out on a possible rise. I'm hoping for a rise from here but it would be nice if the dividend reinvestment went through first.

The rough plan is to trade with the ones i got today and maybe a few thousand more and try to time getting in and out with a couple of hundred pounds profit-------and maybe dip back into IDS if they fall----although I'm expecting them to go up to round 250.

I suppose as always we are waiting on the next update. A slow and steady would be ok but a good one would be better.

I'm guessing the next dividend will be paid in October and will be around the same but I'm hoping higher!

I haven't got the money of the nerve to deal in 50,000 or 60,000 at a time like some people and would be scared of missing out on a big rise.

So it looks like trading a few thousand and hoping that if I do miss out at least I've got my core holding.

Fingers crossed for the golden flip flops.

I just clicked on the share charts and see that this has fallen from over £3 2 years ago to where it is now. Also it has fallen from 58p in the last 3 months. The yearly chart shows it has mainly traded between 60 and low 30's.

Sadly Liberum were right a couple of years ago ? When we were over a quid and they targeted low 80's?

As you know Mr T , I've always said that i would like to see moire director buys and on a regular basis. With the money they are on, I'm sure that there could be a buy of say 50,000 to 100.000 by at least one of them a month. A few buys over that would give a bit of confidence.

I'm hoping that we do start to get a good bounce up from here and then a steady sustained increase without any drama.

While it is a bit political Mr T. I agree. Personally, after the bank bail outs, I couldn't understand them selling the shares back to the RBS for less than they paid?? They should have at least kept hold of them until they had made a good profit and even better if they had just kept hold of them. Water companies and rail should be nationalised again. How many times has the east coast railway been nationalised and then privatised again. They get it running at a profit and then privatise it again??

Ok --enough of the politics from me for now. :-)

This can be painful at times Mr T. I was just checking when the dividend will be reinvested with HL and it is usually between the 11th and the 21st. I was hoping the dividend would have gone through around now at this price as it always seems to go up at reinvestment time. At least it didn't go through with the 5p spike yesterday morning.

I think we need a few things to start lining up for us to get an increase in the share price (after the dividend has been reinvested!) ----good figures with the next update, with ounces mined and better AISC, and also looking towards the end of the waste clearing contact---------and obviously the gold price to climb a bit as well. As always , a few director buys wouldn't do any harm.

It always seems that when we get on a bit of a good run up into the 110's and above, that we get the slide back down.

I really wasn't expecting this to dip much below a 100p

As usual , fingers crossed for the golden flip flops.

I thought you were back in on the 15th of June??

Nice to see you a bit more positive about Centamin now Mr T. I'm hoping from here that gold and the share price will start to climb a bit. With the recent drop in price, at least we will be getting a few more shares with the reinvested dividend (I think it should be paid today?) .

I suppose gold mining is very difficult to predict as you never know how much gold is actually in the ground in an area until you mine it.

If the price of gold holds or rises, then things might start to look a bit better in the coming months. With the waste clearance having opened things up a bit and then getting an updated estimation of when the waste clearance will be finishing, that should give us a boost. I think once we get a date for that the market will like it. That should bring down costs by a lot and boost profit. Along with the solar and the grid connection that should really help.

A bit of good news about the court case and the other parcels of land would also help.

A decent increase in the dividend would make me happier as with the recent rise in interest rates, you can now get a similar return from a building society as the dividend here, without the risk.

Its funny isn't it? That on the boards you always get the rampers, de rampers, gob sh-tes, know it alls and rude people who dismiss everyone else. This board can get a bit like that at times but the core of people is generally gentlemanly on here.

Have a good weekend Mr T.

"I say there boy. I say. Ive added. Added again, I tell you. I've added boy, Added!"

You are getting me all depressed, going into the weekend! In the very short term, if we reinvest the dividend then we get a few mores shares for our money. In the slightly longer term, this share seems to move between 100 and 110 and I'll try and dabble and sell a few at the higher end of that and then hope to get back in about 104 or 5.

Longer than that -----well gold seems to be keeping above $1950 which is $100 above what Centamin have factored in so there should be a bit more profit and hopefully a higher dividend next time round.

Beyond that, they should be getting on with the waste clearing and with the solar and also connecting to the grid, AISC should be coming down.

I'm getting too old waiting to pick up the golden flip flops. RIght--off in to the garden to prune some lavender.

Its been going on so long, I forget where we are up to with the court case, law 32, the Egyptian legal system etc??? Didn't something get passed a few months ago?

Anyhow, while it would be nice to diversify and start mining in other countries, surely anything closer to Sukari would be much simpler and cheaper to do? I.e. the 160km

If Egypt wants other miners in the country, then surely they have got to show that they can do right be Centamin, who have been the only (legal) miner in the country and have contributed a lot of money to the country.

Thanks for that. I suppose it depends if the waste is in a hole or not. I.e. if you have to go deeper to get the last bits out, it takes longer but if it is out of the hole and in a pile, then it should get quicker.

Dasut--It is nice to have somebody on the board who has worked in the business and can explain some of the things to those of us who haven't. You, me and Mr T, are aware of what went on in the past and as you have pointed out, something needed doing pretty quickly. If the mine had carried on the way it had been doing, then production would have probably have ground to a halt. Despite the promises of record amounts of gold being mined being forecast, for the last few years of the previous management something would crop up each year.

As I mentioned the other day, in another 6 months or so, we will be 3/4 of the way through the 4 year waste clearing contract. It would be nice if they got it finished before the 4 years (wishful thinking --but who knows?)

I don't think Martin Horgan will over promise on expected ounces mined, and that should bring back confidence in Centamin. Coming in at the midpoint or above of the forecast would be fine. Then looking forward to the waste clearance coming to an end, others areas opened up for mining, more gold mined and lower costs should all help.

For the next 6 months, I don't expect much improvement in costs or the share price unless gold takes off.

Another question for you. As the waste removal goes on, does it become faster, easier, cheaper to shift what is left?

and the thing is, if centamin were doing the waste removal themselves, then there would be less gold getting mined. their own trucks and workforce could not be in two places, doing two things at the same time.

i'm guessing that they should be getting on top of the waste removal now and that things should be starting to open up and give a bit more flexibility now? in another 6 months, i suppose things will be looking a lot better as they will be nearly 3 years into the 4 year contract.

also with the price of gold being higher recently, i'm still hoping that the dividends will start to go up a bit after this one. it will help to ease the pain of the last few years. i think the estimate was with gold being at $1850--------and hopefully we will stay at least $100 above that and maybe a bit more. i think prof an sotolo did the *** packet calculations and with the price being around where it is now, another 2p on the dividend should be possible, and encouraged as it would reward us lth a bit and restore some confidence in the share.

Ive just bought back the ones I sold a few weeks ago at 107.9 for 104.9. I was hoping to get in at below 104 but it didn't fill this morning.

If the price jumps, I may try and sell them and hopefully get back in before the dividend but if not, I'm happy to hold for he dividend and beyond , hoping to finally get some golden flip flops. :-)

Fingers crossed for gold staying around this price or going up----------and for being at the higher end of the guidance for Oz's mined.

We might actually get a decent divi then.

On a different note, how many good updates or results do you think it will take for the market to start liking Centamin again?

You can blame me for the rise. I sold some Centamin shares yesterday for 107.9 (DOH!). However I did make a small profit as I bought them the day before.
That was the first time I have traded in years.
Im hoping that we will get a small pull back and I might be able to get in cheaper than I sold and but a few more shares for my money.
The good news with the high price of gold is that we should make more profit and get a bigger dividend, which i have been reinvesting here.

Thanks Prof. No matter what the figures are or what happens, somebody with the benefit of hindsight will say that it was expected because of XYZ . I suppose it is very hard to predict how much gold you will get out of the ground, even working at the same speed, as it depends wheter the gold is there or not! A few nice fat nuggets along the way would help :-)
I know some people dont like Martin Horgans "playing it safe" style, but that is also fine by me as I think he realises that he has to produce what has been predicted , or very close to it, each quarter, to maintain confidence. So this "steady as she goes" style is fine so long as the work is getting done.
Having said that, Im still waiting for him to unleash a cover drive or 2. From what I can gather he does seem to be clearing the way and opening things up to allow increased production in the not too distant future.
Fingers crossed for the Golden flip flops.