Member Info for paulmetcalfe

Prof---as you seem to have the figures to hand, assuming for now that gold hovers around $2,000, how will the end of the waste clearance affect the AISC and profits? I think the waste removal is costing rather a lot at the moment? A $50 or £100 dollar reduction in AISC is as good as the same increase in the POG isnt it?
Also, moving forward, (just at a guess) how much will connecting to the grid cut costs?
Thanks

I think it a continuation from the previous management. They were kicking the can down the road for the next quarter or the 2nd part of the year, promising lots but not delivering in the last few years. I think they spoke if 600,000 ozs one year about 3 weeks before down grading?
It is always nice to break the back of a job and then be able to ease off. It would be nice to see a decent amount mined In Q1 , but they would have to announce it well in advance or when the amount dropped later in the year, it would be seen as a failure.
As I mentioned this morning, I think Marting Horgan will shift any excess ounces to the next quarter, until he is confident and good and ready lto announce increased production.
The painful clearing of the waste should enable more consistant figures, once it is out of the way.

Yes Prof "Boringly predictable" I am also quite happy with for now. Hopefully other things should start to line up and help bring AISC costs down and the price of gold will stay mainly stead, OR RISE!
I think the "boringly predictable" is helping with the market being a bit more confident with Centamin now. The way Horgan is I think if they had a really good quarter, he would carry most of the excess ounces mined forward to the next quarter until he is confident with the ounces they can mine each quarter. Ie a good quarter followed by a drop back to an average one would set alarm bells ringing again.
With this being Centamin, I would be pleasantly surprised if the market likes todays RNS unless gold rises a bit today as well.
Fingers crossed for "the demented cash machine" and no more roller coaster riding.

Well Mr T. I cannot say that the regular, usually Friday afternoon spankings are enjoyable, but so much easier to take recently. If you can take a $35 spanking and still finish above $2000 , it looks like gold is getting a bit stronger. Our profits are linked to the price of gold and if we can get AISC down, even better.
I've said I'd be happy for the share price to stay around this level for a bit longer, especially if our profits and dividends go up due to the price of gold holding at this level or maybe rising to $2050. Then we should get a reasonable dividend, there should be more money in reserve for whatever Centamin want to do, and it would get Martin Horgan a bit more breathing space for taking on the waste clearing.
I cannot say I have been happy with the wall clearing costs and the lower dividends, but I think the former needing doing to open up things quicker for easier, lower cost mining in the not too distant future.
Have a good weekend Mr T.

Just wondering--If the algos are so sophisticated now, do they factor in the traders exiting for the weekend? Do the traders exit on Thursday night or Friday morning? When do they get back in?
Given that chess computers play at a level beyond humans now, wont the algos outsmart a trader???

Somehow I missed this post.
When I was asking about potential profit and dividends, (which you kindly worked out) , I was hoping for a gold price over $2000 and maybe even $2050 to enable a rise in dividend whilst still paying for clearing the waste away and investing for the future.
In the relatively shorter term, the share price where it is now and higher /better dividends would suit me as I will be reinvesting the dividends .

Thats why Im hoping gold stays at this price or higher-----and AISC come down. Ie more profit for the same amount of gold out of the ground.

Yes its annoying that the BOD have been getting shares even though they were there through the High grading and wall times.
Ive said before, for now, I'm ok with the share price staying steady around this price but hope the dividends start to pick up. If the price of gold holds around this level and AISC stay the same or start to come down, this should enable a bigger dividend, all things being equal.
Then Im hoping that things improve with the waste shifting, access to be able to mine more gold and costs to come down.

I suppose that shareholders have to hope this doesnt happen then.
IF Egypt want other miners to invest and start mining in Egypt then "Killing the goose that is laying the golden eggs" would not be a very good move would it?
Taking smaller percentages from more companies would be better for Egypt than trying to wring everything out of one.
Surley Egypt/Erma want the companies who bid on the parcels of land to start producing gold and profit/ profit share.

To those with the *** packets and the maths skills, how much difference to our profits (Dividends!) would it make between gold being , say 1950 and 2100?

I have said previously that I would like to see regular buys by the board. It should help steady the price and give a bit of confidence. I think the last time any of them dipped their hands in their pockets was a couple of years ago when the price was around 130? I also think the size of the buys was around 20 or 30k.
Sotolo it is nice that you have the money to buy another 30k shares and have the confidence to do so, but can I ask WHY? considering your man was predicting a fall in the price of gold a week or so ago?

Thank you for that Dasut. Obviously without seeing it first hand, it is an educated guess what has gone on and what needed doing.
If you will have another guess for me please? Do you think that Martin Horgan is opening things up so he can "get a decent swing at things"? in the not too distant future?

Dasut--I apologise for this, but can you look back to my earlier post where I was asking cowichan about various aspects of the mine and give me your take on it please? I know we have a few mining professionals on here and sadly forgot that you were/ are one.
Thanks.

That would be good to see. At least under Martin Horgan so far, we have not had promises of guidance and then been let down. That was part of the problem with Pardey and the last lot.
Im hoping Cowichan can answer the questions I asked earlier.
I dont know anything about mining, but it just seems to me like Martin Horgan is getting the spadework out of the way. I believe he is well repected in the industry and cannot see him doing things without good reason.
It could be argued that the Solar has cost us a lot of money, but the savings should start to come through and it will seem like a good choice.

Cowichan--you are or were in the mining game? What sort of reputation does Martin Horgan have?
How would you have tackled "The wall" differently? Or not at all?
What reason do you think he might have for shifting it all in one rather than just removing what needs to be done to continue current mining, and maybe also gradually work on "the wall" if it does need doing?
What do you reckon to Mr T's mate Kees Decker and his thoughts over the years?
Also Im pretty sure that previous management did promise a lot over their last few years only for bad news to crop up a few weeks later. In one case I think it was the promise of the amount that would be mined in the year and then revised 3 weeks later.

Im not having a go at you. I'd like your view on the questions from you experience in the business.

Im a dull and boring sort of bloke. IF the dividends for the next 2 years were to total 20 cents (We should be so lucky!) , I'd much rather 2 lots of 10 cents than one of 15 followed by one of 5, even though money in your pocket is always better.
The point being, the consistancy would give confidence.
Thanks

I agree that we were stuffed really. The previous bad management caused the problem and it looks like they sold the majority of their shares at the artificially high price they had created by high grading.
You do wonder if Capital were aware of the situation if they were on site?
It looks like Martin Horgan had to make a difficult decision and thats what we are now stuck with. Im guessing his options were very limited. I do wonder if he could have negotiated a better deal though.
As I've said a few times, if things were done better, we probably would have had the same average dividend, but the share price and the company would both be in a better place.
On a different note. Wouldnt opening some of the 160km be an easier option that looking for gold in other countries?
I know we are stuck with the "one mine" tag, but getting the gold that is next to where you are already mining seems like a good call while you look for other options?

It would be nice gold stayed above $2000. That should increase profits and maybe bring the dividend back up without anything else changing. Didnt Sotolsay the share price is 3-1 linked to the price off gold?
Now gold is $2000, how long before the shouts of "Its going up to $3000" start again?
One thing that I think would make money pile into gold is if there was some other scandal/ crash/ cyber attack on crypto. Despite these things being (So secure) I can see them getting hacked, cracked, cyber attacked.

As I've said before Mr T ------if they had done the job properly or even a bit better, we would probably have received the same total dividends over the years (lower earlier but higher now) . Also the share price would be higher due to confidence and that we should be getting the gold out of the ground now.
The way to try to look at it, while the price of gold is high, is that the dividends should go up and if you are reinvesting them, then with the lower share price you get more shares for your money. Then hopefully when the share price does climb, they will seem like they were at a discount price.
I've also said before that Martin Horgan could walk away with no loss of face, so it is encouraging that he wants to stay in the job and must think he can make a decent fist of it.

Lets hope we live long enough to get and enjoy the golden flip flops.

Well that is something.
I'd like to see more regular buys by the board. Im sure one of them a month could put their hands in their pockets.
It would help instil a bit of confidence in the share.

B-oody hell!
Looks like I did jinx it!