Member Info for paulmetcalfe

Lets look forward to a better one. I'm hoping that the troubles in the Ukraine and Gaza find quick and peaceful resolutions.

On the Centamin front----lets hope that production figures get met, AISC come down and the gold price remains at this level at least. If that happens then we might get a half decent dividend.

With the recent high gold price that should have pushed the average profit up for the year.

I look forward to your "back of a f-g packet" calculations of profits and dividends---so please do them on a regular basis.

We are waiting for the figures for the last Quarter , where hopefully we should meet the lower figure of guidance at least. If we do that then with the waste removal coming to an end, AND if gold holds this level, then we should have something to look forward to.

Creeping up a little at the moment. Lets hope we don't get a Friday smackdown from the USA.

What are the back of a cig packet calculations for the dividend for POD at an average of $1950 (which we must be near this year) and $2000? (which I'm hoping we will be above next year)

Thank you for your detailed reply.

:-)

All the best for Christmas and the New Year.

Hi Dasut. I think you are right about scraping in at the lower end of guidance. I don't think Horgan likes to promise much as if you don't meet the figures the market reacts very badly. With the price of gold recently that should help with profits.

I think they were working on an average price of $1850 and I'm pretty sure we have been above that more often than not this year.

I sometimes wonder if Horgan holds something back "just in case", to help smooth any bumps?

There is something I wanted to ask you. Does Sukari have enough machinery to cope with any more material or if they dig more out, will they need more machinery? I suppose the best thing is good grades so you don't have to process as much material to get the gold.

Thanks

The price is flying a bit now. Wheres "No Fear" ? He usually appears and starts shouting whenever the POG rises.

$2066 at the moment.

Without jinxing it, it is nice to see gold seems to be holding up fairly well over $2000 and nearer $2040 (Hoping there isn't a Friday smackdown) .

I think Centamin were working on an average gold price of $1850 for the year and I'm pretty sure we have been above that for most of the year. How will this affect profits?

Also with regards to hedging the gold price at $1900 ( i think), well it seems a bad move now, but was probably a good move as cover. I'm pretty sure that they (and us) wont mind the cost of the hedging, if gold stays around this level or rises.

What caused the rise yesterday?

Maguire might be right one day but he might be wrong.

Look at the "game changers" from the last few years. Kinesis and basel 3 . Not much has actually changed.

I'm with you MrBond----------Lets pray they choose re-valuation.

In the words of Mr Lydon

"I could be wrong, I could be right

I could be black, I could be white

I could be right, I could be wrong

I could be white, I could be black

Your time has come your second skin

The cost so high the gain so low

Walk through the valley

The written word is a lie"

Well, he was right about Saville.

Ok we all have our opinions and hopes about this share and most of us have some "skin in the game" and wish some more of the Centamin board did too. However I'm getting pretty sick of someone who does not have any "skin in the game" finding and posting up any negative thing they can find about the share and Egypt. It is such a pity that they were not digging so deeply in the past and giving the warnings about the last lot and the high grading etc.

While I'm on a rant. What is with all the recent Re. Re. Re. posts , rather than actual threads??? It makes things difficult to follow.

To our Aussie contingent. Well done in the cricket and can you spare some of that Glenn Maxwell magic for Centamin?

I still think you were really lucky to retain the Ashes-------and deep down you all know that!

Yes Mr T--they do seem a very long time ago. We have been bent over and shafted by the last lot. It shows that even people "In the know" didn't know that much. As with most people "in the know" and people predicting, they are right until they are wrong. I think of all the people and all the stuff that has been said on here , even the last few years ------and how often it has been wrong.

Maybe Dasut will step in with something a bit more positive after he reads the next bit?

Gold is hard to find.

Centamin found gold at Sukari and managed to mine it.

Sukari is still the 3Km bit, not the full 160km bit.

Law 32 is either forgotten about or just wont matter.

Therefore there should be the full 160km to go at when they want to.

I am assuming that there will be similar amounts of gold in the full area as the current Sukari area?

So should we be positive about that?

It's nice to have a positive few on here Dasut.

Obviously we only know what we are being told, but it was the same with the last lot. Remember people were talking of "golden flip flops" , saying "Josef (joseph?) is an honourable man, "Good times are coming. Good times are coming", "Turning out cash like a demented cash machine" and saying they would not consider selling their shares for " less than £5"

So among all the gloom now, it is nice to have your view on things.

I would still like to see regular director buys though.

I don't mind "boring" if the results start to pick up along with the dividends and the share price. I'd much rather that that what the last lot did. Wasn't there a special dividend one year which took the dividend up to around 12p? While it was a nice dividend to have, the money could have been put towards keeping on top of the waste. I'm guessing the reason it wasn't, was because the high dividend suckered people in, the share price climbed and the last lot did one with lots of quids in their pockets.

As I've previously mentioned, Martin Horgan is going to a lot of trouble, with opening up the mine, new trucks and solar.

Maybe it is a cunning plan to switch from mining to producing electricity from solar? ;-)

I've just come on and wondering the same??

How does it effect Centamin's profits?

I think they were working on an average gold price of $1850 this year.

Does anybody know what the average price of gold has been so far this year? I know we have had a few dips but I would have thought we are above the $1850?

Ok---most of us LTH are cheesed off and thinking that we should have cashed in when we were 220 and Sotolo ( who's views are back of a f-g packet calculations are interesting) was predicting £3 before long. But we have hindsight.

We never know if what we are being told is true. We were being told a pack of lies when the share was up to 220 and the previous lot were high grading, which looks like it was for their benefit .

If Martin Horgan is pulling the wool over our eyes, then he is going to a great deal of trouble to do it. He made a decision to do the waste clearance and to allow more access to the mine. Then there is the solar and the new trucks. If he was getting a kick back from all of this (I am not accusing him) would it be worth the effort?

Ok--there was a problem and they missed Q3 targets , but they reported it before the Q3 figures officially came out. It's not like the last lot predicting 600 OZs for the year and then suddenly announcing at the last minute there was a problem with some machinery.

Dasut and Kees Dekker thought waste clearance was the way to go---and that is what is being done.

The big IF is can they meet and exceed targets from now on and can they reduce costs to increase profit?

With the recent rise in POG (which I think Sotolo says is geared 3 to 1 with costs?) then that could give a bit of leeway. If they meet targets and gold remains high, they things should look a lot better.

I haven't a clue about Doropo. If they make a decision next summer, then they will either go for it if they think it is a goer or they will get rid of it and stop spending money on it.

I still think there are trust issues with the market and Centamin-------but if we get a couple of good things or meet or exceed targets, that could come back.

I still think Martin Horgan will always underplay targets ------because if you exceed them you are doing well and if you don't , its still looks good for you.

Please can somebody else give us something a bit positive?

What will it take to get this share moving upwards?

It seems that even the jump in gold isn't doing much, after that rise and fall back in the share price the other week.

I keep muttering to myself ----"Waste removal contract coming to an end, AISC falling ,gold price up" --------but what will it take?

Hi Siko. I hope you do pop on now and again. I'm sure you have other more important things on your mind. I hope you and you family are safe and well and have a good weekend.

Mr T --check the RNS from the other day.

It said "· Doropo Gold Project definitive feasibility study (mid-2024)"

Is that when the deciion will be made one way or another?

I know there are other things going on but gold has risen about 8% in the last week or so and our price is about the same as it was a week ago???

It's a weird old share this.