Member Info for paulmetcalfe

I take it you went against your usual thing Steve and were in overnight? I'm a bit disappointed, as I was hoping for good figures in the Q3 update and for the price to start flying on it's own.

Yes-- It seems whenever the divi gets reinvested with HL that the price drops afterwards, (from 132 to current) . Lets hope that gold price holds and Q3 is a good one. If the POG does hold, then it has to drag the average price of the gold sold this year up-----and as I have mentioned about a month ago, if they meet the mid point of ounces mined and AISC of 1350 then they could be clearing well over $1100 OZ at this price.

I'm getting a bit old now and i could do with the price reaching the Pre Wall highs so I could get a pair of those fabled flip flops.

Well someone sounds positive about this!

The Pog has just touched $2500 again. Hopefully it will hold and maybe even climb. About a year ago around the $1800 mark, I think a few were suggesting a drop to below $1500 and maybe to $1350!

After getting in from a walk to town to do my shopping, I've checked and the POG is at $2520 . Is there a reason for this mornings rise? Hopefully it will hold.

Each day with POG at a high price should help drag the profit margin per Oz mined upwards and IF it holds longer, should drag the average profit per Oz mined up for the year.

Why has it taken off today? I've just looked and it is $2509

Sorry. That should have said "Thank you for that".

That you for that Dasut.

So If I'm understanding you correctly, only Sukari is subject to profit share and not Centamin as a whole? So any profit that will hopefully come from Doropo is just for Centamin? The other parcels of land, that Centamin acquired in the auctions, what is your feeling about the profit share there? Obviously Egypt has been trying to get other miners involved and it has to be viable for those miners as well as bringing in money for Egypt.

Thanks Dasut. I don't really understand all that stuff.

I assume the capex is taken off before any profit share ----------and not from Centamins share of the profits?

So--VERY SIMPLY! If gold holds above $2400 for the est of the year an they do make $1100 an ounce----and meet the mid point of production, how much profit will they actually make (1) in H2 and (2) for the full year?

Sorry for being a dunce.

So what sort of capital expenditure are you looking at? And I take it that the money wont need spending in a lump sum?

I know they are looking at a new mine, but that money will be spent over a couple of years developing it wont it?

Just looking through the last RNS at the figures. For Q2 the AISC were below $1300 I think. There was also a shortfall in the gold sold, so even though they mined a bit more, for H1 they have sold 209,000 Oz.

It is also stated that they are on track to meet guidance of 470.000 to 500,000.

SO----IF gold holds above $2400 and AISC come in at $1300 for H2, then they should be making $1,100 and Oz.

Also, IF they only meet the lower production figure of 470,000 then they have to sell another 261,000 Oz in H2 to make it up.

SO---261,000 x $1.100 = 287 million before profit share for H2 -----------and around 300 million if they meet the mid point of 485.000 Oz.

Am I in the ball park with those figures or have I missed something?

Obviously there are a few IF's in there.

In fairness Mr T --when Liberum gave that rating, you accused them of not knowing anything, or words to that effect.

What can we believe on here? Are you pro or anti Centamin now. Have your recent critical posts been ironic or not?

How many people on here are on here under several names?

What do they know?

I believe that there are a few mining or ex mining people on here, who seem to know better than most of us about grades, waste, and costs.

There are also some very negative posts by a small number of people that usually get taken apart by Siko or Dasut.

At the end of it, what do you, they or the "man on the train" really know, as it is all based on figures from Centamin or someone else.

I'm hoping that things get better with the mine and mining and that the POG stays around this level. Then that some of the other stuff happens and costs come down and profits (And Dividends) go up.

As most of it seems in line with what we were being told. I can only assume that the lack of ounces to get closer to the half way point of guidance has been poorly received? I mentioned on another thread that they need another 245.000 Oz to get to the low point of guidance. OR another 275,000 to reach the high point. If they meet those figures, then pretty much everything should be going well.

The only other thing is maybe they were expecting a bigger dividend? I was hoping for one.

I'm not very good at reading the figures---and as you say, they don't look that different until you look at how Q2 was doing. If I am reading it right---if things remain steady and on target, AND Pog holding up, then they could be clearing over $1000 an Oz? To meet the lower end of guidance they would need to mine another 245,000 Oz in H2.

Again if I am understanding things correctly, after profit share, that would put the money in the bank up over 300 Million and towards the 350 that they had prior to the waste stripping?

Hopefully --with the waste clearance coming to an end and the feasibility study done, plus decent figures on Thursday might start to get things moving.

Obviously a better dividend and a few director buys might help as well. :-)

Going off the 4 part article ( mainly part 2) that Goldgnome has put up today, there should be no shocks regarding the AISC.

Come on Martin----give us a decent dividend this time!

Well we are not that far off Q2 results now--------so anybody fancy a guess, just for fun? I'm hoping gold doesn't get a walloping today, and we get a steady climb in the POG from here. There has been no bad news or any reason for a shortfall in any production, and if production and costs are anywhere near on target then they should have been clearing around $950 an ounce for the best part of 4 months by the time of the results. Clearance should be just about finished now as well.

I really am hoping for an announcement of a decent dividend or a special dividend as a "thank you" for the crap we have been through the last 4 years. Given the POG compared to the $1950 they were working on we are probably on average over the last 6 months $250 and ounce above that. As I have said before, I think a decent dividend will give the share price a boost. I understand about exploration (and hoping it is more stuff near Sukari) but you cannot (SHOULD NOT!) keep using money to dig holes without rewarding investors first.

But as you tell us Mr T with the HISTORIC stuff, they over delivered because they were high grading. If the hadn't been then they probably wouldn't have over over delivered and we wouldn't have been left in the situation we have had the last few years. Would you prefer them to high grade again and have the same problem a few years down the line or would you rather have the "steady as she goes" and hopefully a gradual improvement?

Thanks .I hope you are close 3bear. I'm wondering if they will keep around the 19241 as a sort of float for later in the year?

Has anyone done the back of their -ag packet calculations yet? What do you reckon the figures will be?