Member Info for paulmetcalfe

Or maybe to put it another way---how many people would have been unhappy with these production figures and AISC if you had been told about them 4 or 7 years ago?

I know that Twonk briefly predicted 600,000 ounces shortly before the wall problem, but that aside I think most people would have been happy with the figures, but not the share price.

Sometimes you have to try to look on the bright side.

The share price took a bit of a pasting on Friday afternoon (pretty much guaranteed as I bought back the ones I sold last week ) and the POG was down $14 on the day too.

But --POG is still at $2658 ------and all being well, if that price holds, and production and AISC are on target, then that is a lot of profit.

Should the offer get kicked out then I'd hope that the share price would pretty much stand up on its own now.

I mean---after the wall trouble was announced, and we took the initial heavy hit, we were still at 164 before sliding downwards. 7 years ago (yes 7!) we were getting tipped by the papers at 179------and 4 years ago (pre wall) we were well over 200 and Sotolo was tipping us to get to 300 and Tibbs was saying he wouldn't sell until the price reached a fiver!

A lot of it is sentiment I guess, but surely we are in a better place (apart from the share price) than we were 4 or 7 year ago?

If the POG holds and targets are met, then surely this must look attractive to another buyer?

Https://africanminingmarket.com/egypt-to-sign-final-gold-mining-deal-with-barrick-gold-and-centamin/19806/

I saw that article too.

It makes you wonder? If it is not signed off yet then it cannot be included in the offer from Anglogold. If it is signed off, with favourable terms, then the offer should increase to reflect this. OR, if it is outside of the deal, then what do Centamin do with it?

Well oddly we are down today, but i think POG has just hit another new high? $ 2640 now?

Thank you Sotolo.

It would be nice if we reached or exceeded the mid point of the predicted range of Oz's mined. That would put another few million in the bank and would make us look more attractive to any potential buyers.

So do you reckon Centamin is or should be geared 3 to 1 with POG and were my figures in the ballpark.

If the offer went up to say---180 would you sell up then? Is it your intention to hold in Anglo if the deal goes through?

Can somebody check out or verify this please? If the share price is geared 3 to1 (Is that right?) Then gold has risen from $2300 to $2600 in the last few months-----roughly 12% . SO--should the shares have gone up by 36%?

Again---if this is right, then the share price of 132 should have risen by 1.36 times . 132 x 1.36 = 179.52.

Thanks

Maybe one for Sotolo this. I think they said that the shared price is geared to the POG about 3 -1? In early July the share price touched 132 when POG was around $2300 --------So if Anglogold Ashanti had not made the offer, what would the share price be now, given that it is mainly good news that has come of regarding AISC and Oz's mined?

When I checked the share price yesterday evening I could not believe that it had dropped back after being up in the day, especially with POG rising.

I keep saying it --BUT if AISC are around the $1300 mark and the POG is $2500 or above, then they are going to be making a lot of money at the end of Q3 and during Q4.

Good luck Dasut. I will miss your posts. They were often informative and suitably dumbed down so I could understand them. I hope you will pop on and I hope you are right that there may be another interested party ready to come in.

Live long and prosper.

Thanks Dasut.

I was hoping for another offer from one of the big boys. With the figures having improved this year, Doropo looking good . and the other parcels of land near Sukari, I would have thought it would have made it an attractive alternative to trying to find other areas to explore.

How long have they got to sort out the offer and completion?

That really this share price cannot go up now, other than that it is tied to Anglogold? Ie If Anglogold goes up, in theory we have gone up because the share pecentage when the takeover comes is fixed?

Maybe a question for Dasut. Do you think that anybody else is likely to come in with an offer? Also, is that more likely if Q3 figures are good?

Dasut--I hope you are right about another offer coming in. I'd feel a lot happier with another 15% or so.

Mr T--I know we have been through a lot the last 4 years and I can sort of understand you getting out now. A question for you and some of the others (Dasut touched on it) What do you think of Angloggold Ashanti? Are you selling now because you are not keen on them or because you fear the deal might not come off and the share price will drop back?

I seem to remember Pre wall------when the share was over £2 and Sotolo was predicting £3 a share that you said if anybody wanted your shares, then they would have to pay £5! I take it you principles changed due to experience?

Also it strikes me how many shares some people have on here! I know you have been in a long time and I have no idea how many you have, but you could have got out 4 years ago and be 60p a share better off (minus dividends). Sotolo had 600,000 then and still rather a lot now + shares in Hoc. That house could have been built a long time ago!

I don't know anything about Anglogold Ashanti----and I don't know what I'm going to do with my shares. It looks like the deal will go through as if stalwarts off this board are selling them the big boys will almost certainly sell.

I'm hoping that the share price will rise more before the deal (when is that supposed to be?) .

I think Q3 could be a really good one----as if it is, that will probably make the deal look sweeter to the market. Looking quickly at the update figures released the other day, they could be making hell of a lot in Q3/Q4/ H2 if gold just stays above $2500 . Roughly a third of the year to go and a predicted 160,000 -180,000 ounces to be mined and sold with a pre share profit of $1200 Oz. That is a lot of money.

I should have added----that it is not bad because we are ex divi as well on those.

I was trying to sell some last night but the price dropped a bit. Managed to sell some just now for 157. If the price drops back to 154 I might by them back and try and make a little beer money. If the price continues to rise----I'll probably look to put the money elsewhere.

For all my little bits of fiddling with these, I would have probably have been better off leaving them in IDS (Post office) and catching the rise to 340 there. Some of these were the divi reinvestment , which went through at 132 (I think), so the price of a pint and maybe a bag of chips profit there. -)

POG $2541-----is that a new high. It looks like it has climbed roughly $50 a month the last 6 months.

If this price holds then Q3 and Q4 should look good.

I can understand why you would rather have the 163 now, especially with the number of shares you own and your average. My average is similar but with a lot less shares!

As I said on another thread----I'd be a lot happier with another 10 or 15% ---------that would sweeten it and make me feel the 12 years in here have been worth it.

What goldie would you put the money in?

I think Horgan has done pretty good up to now, with clearing the waste, opening up the mine and starting to bring the AISC down. However (and this was pre Horgan), the shares were 220 and you (Sotolo) were predicting 300 soon. So we are well down from the 220 and very far away from 300. I seem to remember Mr T saying the share should be worth 500 in those days. As I've said----All pre wall. I'd rather this offer were turned down, as it looks like Horgan has got things moving the right way and the next update should be really good and Q4 as well, which at the current POG and AISC should generate about $1200 an Oz profit (pre Egypt's share). If those figures are met/ then Q1 and the POG is about the same, what doo you think the share price would be then and what do you think an offer price would be?

Ok--very few of the directors bought shares, which the still could of done if this deal was being quietly talked about, and made a good profit. But when things are just looking good, I'd hate to see them ride off into the sunset with full saddle bags, as I think very few of them have actually been of any use to the company.

SO--I hope this offer gets rejected.

The recent rise is nice--but the share price is still a lot less than the "pre wall" 220 , when it was being tipped for 300 in a few months! So if you bought then (i bought some :-() you would be well out of pocket. I think my average is about 109 now and I was hoping for the climb back up to 200.

I am not keen on this deal. It looks like we have had to suffer a lot in the last 4 years for not very much, not even in the way of dividends. It looks like Horgan has done the hard work of the waste clearance and opening up the mine, along with reducing AISC .

I'll have a quick look at that RNS from yesterday-------but from memory, haven't the AISC come down to below $1300?

If so, then with POG at $2500, that is $1200 profit per Oz before profit share. I think the share price would have jumped a good bit on the full Q3 figures, without the offer.

I cannot believe that the board are recommending the offer. As someone pointed out, the first offer is usually a low one. We could do with someone else coming in with an offer and let them fight it out. I'd be a lot happier with another 10 or 15% should a deal go through.

You have to weigh up why the offer has come in if Centamin are a one trick pony? They must reckon that there is a lot of gold in Sukari and the other parcels from the last round of bidding OR that Doropo is a "GOLD MINE!"