Member Info for paulmetcalfe

I cannot remember how long it will take to get doropo going if it is a goer. But all the money wont need spending at once.

IF the POG holds above $2200 the money should be rolling in. I'm sure someone will get the figures better than mine in a previous post (maybe Prof or Sotolo?) --------------and a decent dividend/ special dividend is long overdue. I think a decent dividend would give the share price a boost as well.

I'm not trying to be negative and I know Martin Horgan is not keen on decent dividends (but as he get shares for free, that's his dividend)-------------but if the share price isn't climbing and the dividend is low, then why invest here instead of money in the bank getting a low risk 4.5% ?

As I've said before, with the money they are getting, they could pay a fair wedge of the dividend out of the interest on the money they have in the bank.

I am assuming that any investment in Doropo comes before the profit share kicks in? So if they make $400 million and invest £100 in Doporo, then there is $300 million to be split with Emra?

At least they have set the bar realistically low and not promised the 600,000 ozs like the last lot did, just before the problems showed up.

I think I said months ago when gold started to move, that if it stayed about $2100 I would be reasonably happy---------but by the time of Q2, if the price does not drop, then we will have had 3 months of gold over $2300, which is an extra $200 per ounce over 3 months, which is 1/4 of a year. Prof or someone will do the calculations again I'm sure, but I think that if they hit the lower figure of ounces mined for the year 470,000 and the AISC are at the top of the range $1350 --------and POG averages $2200 -------then you would be looking at profit before profit share of about 400 million? I think Prof said that if they met the low to mid point of AISC and gold stays around this price, that they could be clearing $900 to $1000 an ounce.

So lets hope they meet the figures and the POG holds.

With Q2 results coming up next month I'm hoping for something pretty good. Gold has been over $2000 for 6months , over $2200 since late March and over $2300 for most of the time since early April. If they hit the targets for ounces mined and AISC then they should have some money in the bank and be able to pay a decent dividend.

With the amounts of money they should have, they could probably get 4.5% or over interest and pay out a fair slice of the dividend with the interest they are earning. If the POG holds through Q3 , then they should be building a nice little pile of money up and the interest on that should pay a good chunk out of future dividends, while retaining most of there cash pile---------and hopefully adding to it each quarter.

The waste clearance is coming to an end, other bits of the mine have been opened up and are they expanding the solar some more? It is time for the mine, the share price and the dividends to kick on.

Currently our dividend is less that we could be earning leaving money in a bank account.

I guess it is having your cake and eating it?

The previous lot in charge ( few dodgy appointments there) were high grading to get the figures up. That is what has caused the waste clearance program. Emra were not complaining when they were getting money from the high grading so they should not complain now. As the clearance has open up other parts of the mine, things should start to get better and more consistent and Emra will get their cut.

It is nice to see gold rise a bit again, but even if it stays near this price, it should be good for Centamin profits if they hit production and cost targets this year. I think Eiprof said they could be clearing near $1000 an ounce?

Gold has been over $2000 for most of the last 6 months, above $2100 since the start of March, above $2200 since the start of April and above $2300 since early April.

As usual we are waiting and hoping for the next quarter figures---------and it will be fingers crossed for ounces mined, lower AISC and the waste clearance coming to an end. I think/hope we should kick on from then until the end of the year.

IF this is true then Egypt are really not doing a good job of encouraging other businesses to invest in the country. With Erma getting profit share already it would seem even more taking the P. Almost like the Tories and "we are all in this together".

If it is for lost production, surely the only thing that could account for that is the waste clearance but that should be advantageous in future as it has opened up other areas. Maybe the government wanted the previous dodgy practises and high grading to continue, to the point where they did kill the goose that was laying the golden eggs?

It is always good to read Dasut's views on things on here. I've not been able to get on line and am now having a bit of a catch up. I was not aware until today that POG had climbed to $2446. It is currently at $2342. It has been above $2000 for most of the last 6 months and above $2100 for nearly 3 and above $2200 for nearly 2. That has got to help Q2 and H1 figures , considering that I think estimates were being made on POG at $1950 towards the end of last year? I'm still crossing fingers and hoping for the more good news, end of waste clearance, bits of other progress (a few director buys!) and for a good rise in the share price and a decent dividend later in the year.

Dasut--having been in the business, you understand the jargon a lot better than most of us and hell of a lot better than me. I am pleased that you think it makes sense. It does seem a pretty detailed explanation and not one designed to fob off Mr T. IF we achieve the 500 mark mined at reduced AISC for a couple of years that would be pretty good I guess, especially if POG holds up.

For now, I guess we are waiting on the next update and hoping that will be a good one and the ounces mined and the share price will kick on from there.

I'd love to help out but I don't "trade" very often as I am not very good at it and I probably need to be more careful with my money than you do.

I wish I'd had enough spare cash to buy 4000 shares this morning when I posted and they were 121.7.

A few things I'm good at

Leaving and order to buy------this means the share price will hover just over the price I've left the order in for a couple of days.

Losing patience and buying anyway---as soon as I do that it will trigger a 2p drop in the price.

Selling after making a small profit-----this will trigger a 2p rise almost immediately.

I wonder if i could sneak up on it and just buy or sell a few shares to confuse it???

I see we are currently down 4p to 121.7? Is there any particular reason for that-------other than me buying some at 127 last week?

I think Mr T has been here for a long time and has probably trebled his money or at least made a good profit. If that is the case and he is no longer happy with things, then he could sell up here and put his money elsewhere. We don't usually know what is going on, only what we are told, which in the past turned out to be lies. ( We know the historic promises and the high grading etc) . So it is the usual 50/50 . We could be getting told the truth or we could be getting told lies.

I think several people on here have pointed out about the open pit. I think Dasut spoke about it a couple of months back?

Several people have mentioned with the current POG that we should be making a good profit this year. Apart from a bit of a blip in November, POG has been above $2000 for the last 6 months, and $2100 or above for the last month or so.

i think that things seem to be moving the right way regarding waste clearance, solar etc and that should help reduce AISC which we are told are still going to be on target.

I cannot remember when Cowichan sold up but I've got a feeling was when the shares were around 105? (maybe higher, maybe lower) but we are up fair bit since then, so I wonder if he would have preferred to stay in a little longer?

It does feel like we are always waiting for the next Update/ next Q . I'm always scared to sell out before one (Like STEVE does) in case we get some really good news, but i cannot remember when we got a decent rise on an RNS??

Hopefully the next Q should be a good one and move upwards from there.

Pure luck. I wish I had the nuts and the money to do it with more-----That would have been a nice pick up. It made up for selling some here twice and having to buy back in 3 or 4p higher. With the amounts I've traded, I probably need a near 2p change here or (because of the tax) a near 8p change on the post office shares, to make more on the deal than Hargreaves Lansdown. I'm still down overall on the post office but managed to reduce my average a bit. It hurts when you don't get a dividend or only a low one like here. I know you can sell shares if the price goes up, but a nice (genuine and not like happened with the previous lot in charge at Centamin) dividend helps most of us along.

I really am hoping that gold stays near these levels and Centamin reach targets and then we start getting a nice dividend,

Star Trek Insurrection ------Jean Luc Picard.

"But some of the darkest chapters in the history of my world involved the forced relocation of a small group of people to satisfy the demands of a large one. I'd hoped that we had learned from our mistakes but it seems some of us haven't..."

Peace and long life.

I was hoping to get some more at 126.5 yesterday after I sold the post office ones I bought for 263 at 273, but the limit order didn't go through, so I tried again today. As It didn't look like going through I paid 127. 023. It is only a few compared to how a lot of people deal and HL probably made near as much as me :-( but i made enough yesterday to get me a few more shares here. I think I sold IDS at 278----bought here at 124 and then sold at 126 (so made nothing really) ,then bought IDS at 263 and sold at 273 ------then managed to get some more here at the 127. 023. Oh well--it's done now and at least I made a few quid for a change.

I put some onion seeds in the other day and some shallot seeds today, so fingers crossed. I've got a few different tomato seedlings going, some in the house and some under glass in a raised bed. On day I might get some luck in the garden and with Centamin

I hope everyone has a good weekend.

I sold some IDS (Royal mail) first thing and bought a few more here at 124.3 . If I had held my nerve 2 minutes longer it would have been better. I then sold most of the ones i bought at 126. 3 and bought back most of the IDS at 15p less to bring my average down a little.

The RNS today isn't a horror but the initial Spanking was. I think most of it was more or less known about regarding the "Softer" H1------------but as you know, the market likes to churn shares.

I take is as a positive that the figures for the year haven't changed------------but they still need to get the gold out and the costs down! The waste contract ending and the other solar should help a bit. The unsold gold should be getting sold at a higher price than it would have a month ago.

I suppose other that any unexpected news coming out, we will all just murmur about stuff until Q2 comes out.

I'd like to hear Dasut's views on this.

It's a good job I make my own jam because I'm still waiting for the Centamin jam

If gold holds around the price it is now and we get back up to 130 and hold there for a bit, I'd be quite happy in the short term-------until closer to the next update.

Well the Q1 results are due tomorrow. I'm hoping there are no bogies there. Even though they mentioned a "soft" first half or "slightly weighted towards H2" anything negative could give us a kicking. The way Horgan is, I cannot see anything spectacular ----------but I'd be happy with a bit of "Steady as she goes", "Waste clearance on schedule" , "AISC at lower half" . I think that sort of thing could slowly get us moving upwards along with the POG.

I think that if gold recovers or even stays at its current level, that for the next few Fridays we could have similar falls around close of play in London. I know people talk about profit taking and the like but that drop was pretty hard and fast around 4.30pm.

I see gold is at $2363 at the moment , down $13 -----and it was up earlier to $2427. Is there a reason for this (news from America?). It seemed to drop a lot just before close in London----so is it a planned attack on the price?

That's not bad then Steve if you "got it wrong" and it only cost you 1.5% .

So it only cost you a couple of pence more to get in then? I think it cost me 3 or 4 pence more when I got it wrong. Despite missing out on the jump from 111 ish to 115 ish :-( at least it has climbed a bit since then.

You sold on the data----so was the data wrong or did the market pretty much ignore it? The latter I guess?