Member Info for pauldrayton

This really is grim to watch. Surely massively undervalued. Sunak & Starmer are unfortunately destroying our oil & gas industry in plain sight.

ZENGAS,

With respect I think I say on behalf of all shareholders who have been involved In Longboat since the IPO, everything they have done so far has been a disaster. They bottled picking up assets during the downturn and then commodity prices shot up, meaning they couldn’t do a production deal at all. Their exploration campaign was a total disaster except for Kveikje which had over 50% CoS.

The JAPEX deal is certainly encouraging but they haven’t done anything with it yet. I’m sure all holders (old and new) hope for the best but so far all that Longboat has done is erode shareholder value whilst paying themselves handsomely.

Thanks JJ, have they mentioned a start date?

Head of Exploration, Malaysia

https://www.linkedin.com/in/choo-matthew79?

I’m beginning to think that with the disastrous EPL in the UK, the Falklands is looking like one of the most attractive places in the world for oil & gas E&P.

The FIG will have given Navitas assurances that they aren’t about to slap additional windfall taxes on profits, and as far as I’m aware the development of their oil & gas industry is supported across the board on the islands.

With the prospect of a Labour government in the UK that is likely to be just as shortsighted as the Conservative one, the North Sea is all but dead for new investment.

Once Sea Lion is developed, I’m sure there will be additional farm outs to bring some of the other prospects online quicker. The NFB is huge and has a favourable tax regime. Yes it is remote and it has the Argentina issue, but it should be too attractive to be ignored in due course.

Cameron’s ‘Remain’ campaigning hasn’t been very successful in the past ;-).

Navitas won’t spend a penny more than they need to or compromise on the rig of their choice to help any other company. If it makes financial & logistical sense for them to contract a rig that can operate in the SFB then it’s a possibility but I wouldn’t hold my breath. There will be no compromises, and we will have to wait and see. I suspect the rig has already been earmarked so any changes at BOR now will not change what has already been decided.

Why are so many of our politicians so utterly stupid?

It beggars belief.

£6 (I hope)!

Everyone who wanted to buy has recently had an opportunity to buy pretty much as many shares as they wanted for 9p, and there will undoubtedly be an overhang.

Patience.

The annulment hearing is not until April. There is a chance that the signed agreement takes until the end of June but the “no later than” suggests it’s probably going to be earlier

Also the panel do not decide the outcome at the hearing - that comes afterwards. It can be as little as a month but on average it’s more like 6-9 months so the outcome of the annulment case is likely to be towards the end of the year (after the 30th June backstop date).

So whilst there is a risk, it’s a relatively small one. And it works both ways - if the outcome is positive before the end of June and the current deal has not been signed then theoretically Rockhopper could also back out and get a better deal.

I expect this one to go ahead as planned though.

The UK government has been clear all along that they will support the FIG’s decision and it’s the FIG’s decision to make.

Wow. Sub $25/bbl is incredible considering inflation over the past few years. Well done Navitas.

FPSO identified and long lead items being procured.

Forget politicians (British & Argentinian). It finally looks like it’s happening.

With all the political turmoil in the world you’d think the Israelis would be as keen as ever to develop Sea Lion. Whilst it’s not good to see conflict, at least the political backdrop favours Rockhopper for once. Let’s hope they overcome the issues at Shenandoah swiftly and proceed to Sea Lion FID this year as planned.

93.9%.

640,578,764 Shares in issue. Let’s hope that’s the last of the dilution.

The windfall tax only applies to production in the UK, hence this move to diversify to other jurisdictions.

Sunak, Hunt & Starmer should take note, but they won’t.

In my mind the most simple way to calculate where the share price should be now is as follows:

HBR have 770m shares in issue that were trading for circa 245p prior to the announcement = Market Cap £1.9bn.

They are issuing an additional 920m shares = £1.69bn shares total after the acquisition.

They are paying £8.8bn for the Wintershall assets, plus Harbour’s previous value of £1.9bn = £10.7bn.

Subtract the debt they are taking on (£3.86bn) and you get a value of £6.84bn.

£6.84bn / 1.69bn shares = share price of £4.05.

If we take the view that Harbour was undervalued at 245p and true value was the 360p that Wintershall shareholders are getting then:

770m x 360p = fair Harbour value of £2.77bn.

£2.77bn + £8.8bn = £11.57bn - £3.86bn debt = £7.71bn / 1.69bn shares = £4.56

So assuming we don’t think Harbour have overpaid, I would expect a minimum share price of £4.05 and a fair value of £4.56.

This doesn’t factor into account any synergies, growth potential or the fact that Harbour might have got a good deal etc - it’s just a simple way of looking at how the company should be valued today. £4-4.50 seems right at the moment to me on a basic level, and I can see £5+ in the next 24-48 months.

You need to factor in debt into those valuations but £3 is clearly very wrong.

The market is quiet, lots of people on holiday. Also no time yet to digest the enormity of this deal. There will also inevitably be profit takers along the way with such a large uplift.

When the dust settles my guess is £4 by end of Q1 at the latest (possibly much sooner) and £4.50-5 by end of 2024.

Surely £3.60 is the ‘starting point’ here but I would have guessed £4+ on that news. Current share price makes no sense given the deal.