Member Info for Patient

Daniel,
I am happy to go on this chat show because, like you, I am scared of losing money. I have held these shares since Dec 2018 but only doing frequent trades from March 2020. I have now developed my trading strategy and by posting here I can sort of describe it and validate it, and to learn from everyone else's comments.
So far it has worked, and if this method is successful then there is no reason why I cannot continue. I have been successful because VOD has an underlying stability, and volatility is rarely above 2.5% on any day. Nothing can protect from a serious crash, but I am bullish with VOD, only I want also to take advantage of the little ups and downs in the meantime, and it seems to be working.
The only risks are (a) selling too soon when there is a large upswing and losing what would have been a bigger profit, and (b) selling too late when there is a drop. I hope I would sell up before all my gains to that date are wiped out.

Bought back what I sold this morning. It's nice when your dreams come true!

Mikey, Yes I am working on it really hard, as you have deduced!

Hi Mikey,
I've got a feeling that there is some support at the current valuation. I'd love it to drop to 129p later today but I don't think that will happen somehow.

The exchange rate is based on a 5-day average taken a few days before the payment, so the stellar performance of the £ since the end of the Brexit whatever-period will see a rate probably around 1.13 rather than the lower rate of around 1.11 last time.

H-hi, if you really think that VOD is dead money, shouldn't you put it to better use elsewhere? After all, if there are no prospects for VOD, you are missing opportunities elsewhere if you don't sell.

I'm hoping that the shares will flutter well over 130.5p tomorrow morning, after today's Nasdaq rise. I can only recall one occasion when the sp did not rise after a similar uptick in the USA.
By the way, does anyone know why the sp is rising?

Rob, thanks for your comments. Yes it's difficult to sell for a loss, or buy back at a higher price, but it's necessary at times in the way I do it. That's why I keep a running total of gains to put these isolated losses in perspective.

Daniel. You are clearly sceptical, but I record all my profits and losses on every single deal AFTER expenses, so the expenses are in fact irrelevant after the deal. Of course I would have made a massive amount more without stamp duty, but that's part of the furniture.
What I am doing at the moment, through my dealing, is getting "free" shares by say selling £5000 worth (£4995 shares + £5 fees) at a high price and buying them back later when they have fallen enough to cover the stamp duty and expenses (£4970 shares plus £25 + £5). If I can buy more shares with £4,970 than I sold for £4,995 then I am in profit.
Similarly, if I buy X shares for £Y (including fees) and I can later on sell fewer than X shares for £Y + £5, I have got more shares for free.
I quite like doing that, and the way the Nasdaq closed today, I expect there may be opportunities tomorrow.

Hi robleo, not sure that VOD has debt problems. Interest rates are low, probably for the next 2 years at least. As long as revenue is maintained (we will find out soon if that is the case) then the debt is manageable. However, should revenue fall and costs remain the same, then it could go horribly wrong very quickly (a dividend cut and sp crash).
The effect of debt is to magnify the effects of a rise or fall in revenue/profits. Worst case the bond-holders take over the company and wipe out the shareholders.

H-hi, a lot of it is luck also, actually.

If I had decided (or had the cash) to invest at 200p I would probably have done so, but no, I invested at 165 because that was what it was at the time, and also I remembered then that 170p was what VOD was a few years ago when I was investing in other shares, and I thought about VOD then.

My day trading strategy really is dealing in small tranches, and small spreads, but it is surprising how volatile VOD is, so it is really easy to overcome the stamp duty threshold. Dealing in that way (I only dabble in VOD) I can keep a close eye on things, such as topping up at 93p on the 17th March last year, and later selling to reduce my average.

VOD is my only holding. I only use VOD as a suitable vehicle for day trading, so I don't need to diversify into other shares.

Hello H-hi,
My original purchase of VOD was at 165p, but now my average is 103p, although that is with dividends received these past two years. I think that dealing in tranches averages out gains/losses, a bit like regular monthly investments do, but in a different way of course. I developed a method when I realised that just sitting on these shares would not produce an adequate return, or even get my original investment back.

H-hi, ref crazy £.
VOD has earnings mainly in Euros, so the sp on Nasdaq will reflect both the sentiment towards VOD and the relative value of the $-euro. I have a property in France so I consider my VOD holding as a £-euro hedge, so no worries there.
If I bothered to find out how to invest on the Nas, I would expect to invest a fixed amount in $ and not keep changing the currencies back and forth. If the $ gained against the euro, then the VOD price on the Nas would fall, but the fewer dollars invested would still be worth as much in euros. As the price in London is also heavily based on euro earnings in Germany, it will also rise and fall in accordance with currency movements.
In my opinion, therefore, there is no need to worry about currency fluctuations with VOD, only to minimise exchange costs to the absolute minimum.

H-hi, If I were overweight in VOD I would sell a small tranche say £5k after a sharp rise, and see what happens. If it then retreats, buy back perhaps? That wold be a profit then, otherwise if it keeps on going up after you have sold, you have at least achieved your goal of reducing your VOD holding.

Hello again, Daniel. Just an example:
VOD closes at 1.29. Somebody already in profit, wants 1.31. The next day, it opens at 1.31, so he sells. Therefore he sells at a profit. The buyer hasn't lost anything, apart from SD and fees. How does that fit in with your winner/loser ideas?

Hello Daniel,
The seller may not be selling at a loss, if I buy. After all I don't sell at a loss. The seller doesn't benefit from future rises, I do, but he has probably already made a profit.
Don't forget that shares rise and fall not just because of buying or selling pressures, but because of general sentiment. An SP can go up 10% without any shares changing hands, because of some kind of good news ... In that case, every single shareholder is a winner, and there are no losers. That is how share prices work, they don't operate the way you think they do :)

H-hi,
No I don't. I pay SD like the good boy wot I am!

It looks like VOD is going higher on the Nas, a bit like yesterday evening. So IF it stays up this evening, and IF the £ stays the same or goes down a bit against $ and euro, and IF the Nikkei doesn't drop overnight , then there may be a little burst of enthusiasm in VOD in London tomorrow morning, so I will keep a lookout for that. I hope it goes clearly above 130.5p, what would be annoying is for it to fiddle about just under, and then drop back.

Daniel,
There doesn't have to be a loser if you buy and sell shares, since share movements are not a zero-sum game. A neighbour of mine way back did this professionally, and returned around 10% to his clients, so he said. That is not a high hurdle if the VOD dividend is 6% already.
I look at the movements in the $ £ and euro, and the Nikkei and Nasdaq, as well as FTSE and other news.
I have found that if there is good news, there is often a delayed reaction, so perhaps wait a few hours or even a day for VOD to peak. I have noticed that, don't know why. If I'm selling on a rise I usually sell too soon, just to see it go further, but I have still made a profit. Or else it doesn't rise quite enough and then dips back so I have missed an opportunity.
Today for instance it did not fall back enough for me to buy back, because I sold (at a profit) before the high point. I am currently neither over- or under-weight so that I have potential tranches to buy or sell once the SP moves outside the 127-130.5 range. Either way I make a profit. So if the SP rises above 130.5p tomorrow I will sell 1/6 of my VOD shares, or buy a further 1/6 if it falls below 127p, all other things remaining equal. That will make me either under- or overweight so I will adjust my next deal accordingly, perhaps by dealing in smaller tranches.
I have done this long enough in VOD to have missed large rises by selling too soon, but not long enough to encounter a sudden disaster/crash in the share price. If that were to happen I know I would be pretty defenceless. That is why I keep tabs on my running total of profits as I would consider selling to preserve some of it at least.
I am up and down ladders because everyone else around here seems afraid of heights! I will come down for a cuppa, but not to answer the phone!

Surely it must be factored in to the current SP mostly?

I bought VOD just over 2 years ago on the basis of some recommendations at around 1.65 and I am nicely in profit due to intermediate share dealing. However I now see it as a basic utility, but one that is subject to intense competitive pressures. Furthermore, the company culture is probably not one of innovation that will see it developing a new killer product, so the potential competitive downsides will keep the lid on this one. It is likely that the Board are more interested in keeping the bond-holders happy rather than the shareholders. After all, the bond holders are getting a reasonable rate (for bonds) that they may not be able to get so securely elsewhere.

I am only keeping it for day trading and as my crystal ball seems to have become attuned to this share.

Yeah. Look forward to skiing right down to the cafe at the foot of the hill by lunchtime!