Member Info for pardariff

What are they supposed to report?

An excellent drill report and ongoing testing .

They cant report a more encouraging scenario and yet the share price seems reluctant to reflect this .

Testing is obviously taking time but so what.

Dbh1956 dbh

Thanks for the reply . It seems to me like shades of Gordon Brown selling off the Gold !

Why would North sell all their shares if this is such an obvious buy with production increasing and more wells to come ?

Sorry in advance if this seems like a silly question but the antics of some of these outfits still baffle me

TerryM1

Both you and Temple of doom have interesting takes on the geopolitical scenario with Trump and gas /green energy

Fwiw my take is that there will be shades of both with an increase in natural gas and oil production but i cannot see a total ban on green energy production [ think Elon Musk influence ]

All powerful as Trump appears ,he still has a government machine to contend with with all the vested interests of the governors / senators etc.

I hope this share price slump is just a knee jerk reaction and will reverse soon

My take [ fwiw ]

No changes to aim and shares in general

Hit to oil and tobacco and possibly petrol [easy targets ]

hit to inheritance tax and capital gains tax

change to tax free lump sum on Sipp [probably an upper limit ]

Comments and other opinions invited

Grippa i am not an expert but this is my opinion -

Lion trust are quoted on the main market and as such have the same tax status as any other quoted company .

They run a fund with Aim companies in it and this could be affected if the inheritance status of Aim shares were affected by budget changes.

Fwiw i would wait and see what develops regarding Aim shares as messing around with the status of Aim shares may not happen in the budget.

I own Liontrust shares and perhaps this type of speculation is affecting the share price

Trek

Thanks for your valuable input.

As you rightly point out the U stock markets is a different animal to ftse which never fails to disappoint!

Trek

Thanks for all your helpful posts and i am invested in mostly divi stocks .

We have no real idea what an Israeli strike on Iran will do to markets but to be sure it will not help share prices [ except for oil!]

What are your views on say a triple short on the ftse100 with say 5% of a portfolio as opposed to going big into cash?

Sell some of holdings to finance this and if ftse goes up you still have the shares to offset the loss on the ftse short

Market Dealer

I dont post very often and generally agree with your comments and investment strategy with one exception--

Mathematically speaking if you only hold a small number of shares and one takes a big hit it badly affects your overall wealth creation .

Fwiw i try and hold up to 30 shares/funds for this reason

Jim800

My comment was made to indicate that although gas prices are down at the moment it does not follow that DEC has had a bad year.

As you correctly point out profit is a function of price and cost and my comment dealt with the price achieved before costs of production.

I think that todays spot price has a limited impact on future hedging prices as the future hedge price is based on what the predicted gas price will be at some time in the future.

A lot more gas producers would struggle at todays low gas prices and some firms are already stopping production.

Bismark

We dont know the details of the current years hedging policy but my very simplistic take is that if you are hedged at say 2.66 and gas is currently at at 1.66 say , you should be making good profits on your hedging strategy.

This leads on to the conclusion that the more you produce ,the more profits.

The upcoming results will provide the insight into whether the shorters were right as the natural gas price has taken a right hammering lately .

The hope is that this is a short term situation as we all know how volatile gas prices can be .

The best scenario for DEC is that they have hedged out to 2025 and for 2024 have made large profits on their hedging strategy .

My take FWIW is that the share price is so low that most negative issues have been covered and a solid report will see a good upgrade to the share price.

Here,s hoping!

What would be rely interesting is if the shares were to take a sudden leap up in value to say 1500+ per share before the tender period expired

The price drop could be a reaction to large us gas companies cutting production due to a glut of gas and falling prices .

I cant work out if companies cutting production is good or bad for DEC due to its hedging position but these price movements are to be expected with natural gas .

Shorting should be banned.

To bet on a company failing is wrong and is a device set up by MM,s to make money out of trading the shares without regard to the Company itself.

MrG123

I agree with your sentiment and the acid test will be if they can maintain or even increase the dividend.

Onwards and upwards if this is the case as with interest rates forecast to fall this will look like an absolute bargain.

Bismarck

I take your point regarding the Divi v FCF and i know we will have to wait until end of march for full year results to see their hedging , dividend policy and where they see the gas prices going forward .

Fair play to Rusty as he is very clever at trying to give both shareholders a boost and keeping shorters at bay .

I would like to see a dividend declared for the whole financial year 24/25 because at present there seems to be an air of " too good to be true " about the dividend which at current share price is a massive investment opportunity if it can be maintained

To be fair most posters on this board including myself did not imagine such a large yield which is obviously a function of the lowering share price.

From my perspective Rusty could help to boost the share price by BB,s but there are no real guarantees that this would work when sentiment is against you.

I cant see the need to reduce the divi if cash generation is not a problem and going forward there is a very good chance that sentiment will change and the yield would naturally adjust itself to what would look like a sensible one.

Lets hope for a good February!

Axe- Capital Your analysis of short trading is interesting but if you are stating that short sellers are accumulating shares to make future profits then we should all be piling in at every opportunity as the price is bound to recover.