Some of my thoughts - nothing more - also ran out of space!24 Feb 2020 15:17
Hi all, i've been watching this thread for a while and today I just created an account so this is my first post!
I have quite a lot of RDSB shares and about half as much RDSA as I have B shares again. The A shares were from an employee salary sacrifice and I had no option to get the A shares with that.
Anyway, haven't been an employee for 6 years or so but having worked in the industry, this is my two cents.
There is absolutely no shortage of oil in the world, and unfortunately when the US began fracking, they for the first time became a major oil exporter. This begun circa 5-7 years ago. ARAMCo and others lowered the price of oil drastically to make it unsustainable for the US to make fracking profitable as it is an expensive way of doing things. However, this did not work as planned and we continue to see today the low oil prices globally. We also see the US continue to be a major oil exporter. Along with the Chinese, Russians, S.America's, West Africa and Middle East - plenty of oil, plenty of competition = continued low prices and low profit margins. I don't see this finishing anytime soon unfortunately. I think off-shore assets are the most unprofitable as of their potential for huge damage to reputation and the costs involved. There is now plenty of oil available via the land without that exposure to risk.
LNG was a huge money maker for the oil majors back in the day, especially trading to Japan after the Tsunami as the Nuclear sites were shutting down and the big move to gas powered power stations. A lot of this would come from Qatar, Brunei and Nigeria. They are typically your main LNG export countries. Having been out of the industry for a few years now, i'm not sure about the ins and outs of LNG demand now, but I don't suppose those power stations have closed overnight.
Just from reading around, I believe the main contributors for the low share price are, a potentially low LNG price with over supply. This is a very expensive cargo to produce and transport, it used to have high profit margins, but I don't think this is the case any longer. Imagine the costs involved to source and liquify methane to a cryogenic temperature of -163°C and then transport it. If the spot price for LNG is low, then their profits are wiped out straight away :(
Shell is a market leader in LNG and manages LNG operations for Nakilat, Qatar Gas, Brunei LNG and Nigerian LNG, it's a big part of their portfolio. Just google LNG Prelude, a floating Production and storage facility - the biggest of it's type in the world off the North West Shelf in Australia at a cost of about $12 billion.
Also this Cornovirus, this i'm sure will be time bound and out of the way first. But it seems it's slowing down industry and therefore their requirement for hydrocarbons which makes sense I guess. But it has had a bigger affect than I had imagined..
Russia not agreeing to OPEC cuts.. this is also not good - but why should they??