Member Info for Papegoja

Debt reduced by MUSD 342 to MUSD 880 during last six months equals MUSD 55/month
Net Debt to EBITDA ratio down from 1.6x to 1.0x,during last six months equals -0,1/month.
We will end up with a debt at MUSD 550 at the end of the year or in 5 months time.
We will end up with a netdebt to EBITDA ratio at 0,4 at the end of the year or in 5 months time.

In my view we can expect info about dividend within short (Sept) and any EP info will be a another trigger. My worry is that AB will go for another big investment. Not because it is a bad decision but it will push my dividend further down the line and I am running out of patience. If someone talked with AB on his long term personal plans at the AGM it would be interesting to hear what he said. Any info about that would be welcome.

AB has bought 9,9 million shares in E since June 14. He has paid an average of 24,1/share. He received an additional 5,6 million shares for free on the 25/4. All in all almost 1% of the outstanding shares in addition to what he had before. Something good is in the cards and the low expectations from Barclays looks like a gift to everybody buying at the moment.

We have less than one million shares traded today in sth ( 800,000) total value of USD 350,000. Take away the robot trade and you are down to 200-300,00 shares traded to a value of USD 100,000. Shareprice has not moved this week despite increase in oilprice from USD 113 to USD 118. It is of course very frustrating to be a shareholder if you are fully invested. Hopefully we could get some clarity on the WT, as I see it any news can only be positive since I think we were hit hard by the info we received. I have one question to anyone participating at the AGM. Did you ask about the debt situation? did they indicate anything. At the moment I am just guessing they are repaying some MUSD 100 every two months which will take us to MUSD 750 in Sept. Any thoughts?

Following the release of the WT info Barclays has been on the selling side in Stockholm. I noticed it because they normally do not stick out the way they did and they continued after the immediate sell of. In Stockholm they had zero sales and more than a million purchases on some of the the days last week and it was the same up until today (yesterday was a holiday in Sweden). Today they are on the buying side with surplus of over 500,000 shares representing 7% of total turnover in Sth. For me it looks like the information about the joker James Hosies analysis was well know to many Barclay clients.

Does anyone have any thoughts about the result of the Exchange offer that will be presented on Wednesday? What is a good result on the exchange offer and can we expect some additional comments on how E will use the funds (I have not read the prospectus but is there an upper limit on how much they are looking for)?
To Romaron. I expect the dividend obsession will come in nicely in September (at the latest) at the next scheduled update. A firm plan for dividend will definitely attract new Investors. The fact that Schroders and Avanza is creating RNS at the moment is however (in my view) not of any importance. It just reflect the fact that they are very close to the 5% limit that require RNS (sometimes they are above and sometimes they are below). The key information we wait for is a clear dividend policy and a date for first day of dividend payment (my guess March 2023). I advice everybody to be shareholders before the announcement is made.

To Jan2,

Perhaps the reason for the daily movement today is the fact the Börsveckan (A Swedish Newsletter/magasin that provides analysis and recommendations)) came out with a strong recommendation today. This is the translation that was posted on Avanza today.

"Britain's Enquest is carving gold with a butter knife right now thanks to rising oil prices and the stock is up 70 percent this year. A juicy dividend could become relevant in 2023 as the balance sheet rapidly improves and fundamentally it looks attractive. The stock is good to have in a well-balanced and broad portfolio, according to Börsveckan".

My understanding is that Net debt at 24/3 was 1,004,7 at 24/3 according to report yesterday (See below").

As at 28 February 2022, net debt was $1,090.0 million, down a further $132.0 million from 31 December 2021, reflecting strong free cash flow and positive working capital movements. As at the date of this announcement, the Group had made further early voluntary repayments of its RBL facility totalling $85.3 million, with the amount drawn down reduced to $329.7 million. EnQuest is targeting progress towards a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.5x.

Thanks gurun, for your info the 100,000 are now sold to AVA at SEK 3,0. This transaction means that I have 7% of the total trade in Sth so far. Strange world we live in.

Elitsky, I know you follow the trades in Sth so my question to you is what do you think about the trade conducted by MLEX, MSE and BBI. I just place an order for 100,000 E in Sth at SEK 2,976. I immediately got the following result 16939 sold by MSE, 16939, sold by MLEX, 16939 sold by MLEX, then a pause and then MLEX continued to sell at 2,976 at smaller numbers until I got my 100,000 shares.

Do you think they work together? When I followed MSE for a couple of week they sold and bought more or less the same number of shares and made almost no profit (if the courtage was close to zero). I would be interested to hear views on the above. The price now 15 min later is still 2,978 and the total turnover of shares at this moment is 2,2 million in Sth.

Thanks for reminding us about the present situation. I only want to add one comment to your post. In 2021 we had a FCF of MUSD 400 at an oilprice of USD 69. In 2001 our production was 44,415 boepd.

Today we have an oilprice of USD 100 and our production (so far) has been 50,000 boepd. Dividend is coming and I don't think it will stop at 5p. AB and his foundation does have a purpose and I guess he would like to harvest before he gets out of the oil-business.

I expect E to inform us that production has been around 50,000 bopd up until 24/3 (in line with the the production reported in Feb. I also expect that E has managed to take advantage of the oilprice during March which would be around 100USD. With this said I expect prepayments of existing loans and hopefully an indication on time/level of debt when Dividend can be paid. I also hope for information on EP. (With info about dividend or EP is provided I see them as substantial triggers for a much higher share price).
In respect of discussions in this Forum lately my view is that the RNS from Avanza are non issues. Avanza Fund happens to have a holding of around 3% and the holding moves up and down depending on how the fund investors act. Sometimes above 3% sometimes below 3% (a non-issue in my view).
MSE trading in Stockholm. I followed them for a time, they had about 20% of the total trade they sold more a less the same number as they bought. They made peanuts in profit based on the assumption that they don't pay any courtage. Clearly robot-trading and in my view a non-issue.

If anyone is following the Kraken production (vessels coming and going) please share that on the Board. In my view this is the only thing we should worry about. If we can keep the production on the 2021 level we should all be fine.

Thanks Gurun, much appreciated.

To Elitesky,
Do you have any hard information about the trading of MSE in Stockholm? I mean do you follow MSE trading on a daily basis and have more precise info over time? If you have info I wonder if you could share it?

I am asking because I followed XTXE for some time last year. XTXE is an algorithmic trading firm and they traded Enquest in a heavy way (they had around 40% of the daily turnover under their name. Some days as sellers and some days as buyers but most of the days on both sides). Over a period of 6 months they bought as many shares as they sold and I assume tried to make some money. As said, I followed them on a daily basis for 6 onths and it was obvious their algoritms were not top notch. During the six months I was following them they did not make any money at all even if I put down the courtage to zero. Consequently they stopped trading and are now not active in E anymore.

I think it could be interesting to follow MSE if they are only on the selling side, as you are indicating. I will start following them today and the starting point will be MSE buying 870, 000 at 2,646 and selling 1,770,000 at 2,643 giving a total of -900,000. (at a loss).

A nice week in my view. Production + 50000 boepd, POO above 90 USD the whole week that gives us a revenue of more than MUSD 31,5. I ask AB to use it in a intelligent way and SP will follow.

I put my hope in the fact that AB is getting older (58) every day and I don't think he would like to spend the rest of his life at Enquest fighting the green revolution, endless discussion with Banks about covenants, hedges etc. He has been there since 2010 (12 years is a long time), he has invested most of his money in Enquest and he has not yet received anything in return (except a nice salary which by the way has been invested in Enquest). There must a purpose with his Foundation that goes beyond Enquest and I think he is counting the days for a possibility for him to announce that Enquest is going to pay dividend. That is the only way his Foundation can do something that is meaningful.

I say, give it six months and then we will hear the word dividend.

Mansardman, you are right I got overenthusiastic. I expected the market to see what I see in E and I was wrong again. I couldn't see any major buyer step in either. So my conclusion is that it is only "small fish" that iare trading at the moment and it is quite easy to move the SP. I think we need Q1 results or EP information before anything moves in a substantial way, so I will continue to wait.

Nice to see the SP moving up when the Oilprice is going down. Perhaps investors (with the exception of squif, of course) starts to understand what is coming.

50810 boepd in January and 3 days in Feb at USD 78 (worst case scenario) gives a revenue of MUSD 134 or MUSD 4,0/day. From my point of view E can proceed like this for the rest of the year. I am buying today.

I find the flow of information from E among the worst in the industry. The lack of projections and scenarios is cause for concern and creates a lot of unnecessary guessing among the rest of us shareholders. We are guessing on production and and price for our oilproducts, we get no information or updates on breakdowns or the solving of the same, we are guessing when it comes to EP. We are not even told about the date for OU only a reference to February. So why do I remain as a shareholder? First the high oil price not even E can avoid being profitable here, then the potential in the existing oil fields and finally the fact that AB is a big shareholder and is getting older every day. I think he would like to use the wealth he is now sitting on before he gets to old. I give him credit for the GE deal and my hope is that he use the word DIVIDEND within short.