Member Info for Papegoja

The price of oil has fallen to the point where it's almost as if the loss of a billion barrels never happened. I've listened to a range of experts, including Eric Nuttall, Jeff Currie, and others, and they all seem to be saying the same thing: "the market is too complacent" and "I wouldn't want to be short in this market."

Given that backdrop, why is it so difficult to take a position against the market and start buying? There appears to be substantial expert support for higher prices, and that's before even considering the possibility of a positive cabinet reshuffle under Labor. Yet the market continues to move in the opposite direction. What am I missing?

Always nice to have analytical support from JP Morgon and a new target at 29p. Sometimes it means something for the share price but not today, apparently.

What a lovely country you have. Oil&Gas? No thank you! How about wind turbines? No thank you.

My take on your question to Stevo. E is negotiating something with someone and they don't want to have parallell numbers in circulation. Apart from that I think every day the Strait is closed is positive for E.

It could happen, but in a way it seems strange because the best-case scenario for E is ongoing negotiations while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. I can’t see how a new attack would benefit E, since it would likely destroy demand. By the way, did you get any information about net debt at the AGM?

Krak and Rom, are you buying or selling E following the AGM and did you get any info of substance?

For Q1 2026 Ithaka recognised oil revenues of $91/bbl before hedging and $78/bbl after hedging. If we assume they averaged USD 65/b in Jan and Feb Ithaca must have sold their oil for USD 140/b in March to reach an average of USD 91/b for Q1. Could it be the same for E ? and then we have April and May on top of it.

In my view the USD 80,6/b would mean Jan USD 65, Feb 65, March 110 = 240 / 3 = USD 80/b. Looking forward to Q2 the future looks good.

With information from Jan to May 20th it will be very interesting to see how E has performed. Equinor provided some impressive numbers for Q1 but I assume E will be one of the first to provide some indication on NS performance since the start of the Iran-US conflict.

Profitaker,

We are in agreement. I only referred to the info provided by E and not the total production.

Hunbah, I agree .

Let's hope we get some sort of clairty at the next report.

( Extract from Es latest update) "From 1 April 2026, EnQuest has hedged a total of 5.1 MMbbls for the next 12 months with an average floor price of $71.3/bbl and a further 3.5 MMbbls in the subsequent 12-month period with an average floor price of $64.4/bbl, predominantly utilising swaps". If we focus on 2026 then lets assume Brent at USD 100/b and physical price at USD 140/b. My understanding is that E will get 71,3 USD/b + USD 40/b (140-100) in total USD 111,3 USD/b. The other party will get 28,7 USD/b (the difference between USD 71,3 and Brent 100/b). I assume that E is selling at USD 140/b (physical price). Any other views?

Thanks, Stevo I really appreciate it. Now I’ll keep my fingers crossed for a transformative deal and a shake-up in the EPL as welcome surprises

Welcome back, Steveo. While I know not everyone agrees with your perspective, I value it and would appreciate your thoughts on a couple of points:

When running your calculations, which pricing benchmark do you rely on? A few years ago, E suggested using Brent as a rule of thumb, but now we also have the dated price. What’s your approach, and why?

Brent has averaged around USD 100/b over the past two months, and I’m assuming it may average closer to USD 85/b for the remainder of the year. Based on that, how do you see FCF developing? Also, could you compare NS with SEA?

I appreciate your typically conservative take.

North Sea is creating the best year ever for Norway (jobs, investment, tax income, wealth) and the worst year ever for Great Britain (unemployment, noinvestments, mimmal tax revenues) all because of political decisions.

It is for Tory and Reform to inform them.

BP doesn't invest in the North Sea and doesn't make any money in the North Sea.

One of the best years ever for Norway because of the oil/gas prices and at the same time one of the worst years ever for Great Britain because of the oil/gas prices.

Solid RNS! Balance sheet clean-up and money availbale until 2031. All good IMHO.

Hunbah,

I think you are on to something here.