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I find this comment in the RNS very interesting
"The Company will announce any market repurchases of Ordinary Shares no later than 7.30 a.m. on the business day following the calendar day on which the repurchase occurred"
It will give us a pretty good picture on how the SP reacts on the repurchases. In addition I do agree with Dumbly. I think the message about repurchases in the amount of MUSD 15 was unclear now when it includes shares for the staff/management.
I contacted IR and asked them what kind of oil E is producing and how I could follow the price level. The answer from IR was the following:
EnQuest oil production largely follows Brent pricing, with the following exceptions:
- Kraken crude sells directly into the very low sulphur fuel oil ('VLSFO') market, where it is blended offshore to form shipping fuel. Over the past 24 months, the pricing in this market has been relatively volatile and we have seen significant premiums and discounts to Brent, although I'd note that annual averages have been close to Brent.
- Alba oil generally trades at a discount to Brent of c.%3/bbl, while our Malaysian production from PM8/Seligi tracks at a premium of c.$1.5/bbl.
I also asked whether E needs to issue RNS every time they purchase their own shares or if I could follow the process in another way. This is the answer i got.
With regard to the share buy back programme announced last week, we are in the final stages of putting together the administrative details, but will certainly announce the commencement of the programme as a minimum.
In the beginning of 2023 the Net debt was MUSD 717. E produced 43,8Kboed at USD 82,5/bbl and reduced the Net debt to MUSD 480 (- 330). For 2024 the production will probably be the same accoring to E and oil price will be ?, my guess USD 86/bbl. With that said I expect the Net debt to end up at MUSD 150 (- 330 or same as for 2023) give or take some milions.
In addition
During 2024 E will start to purchase its own shares for MUSD 15 or 85 million shares at 14.00. That represent 4,5% of total shares outstanding. However, the ten biggest shareholder holds 50% and I guess another 25% are LTH (Jan and others on this Board) so with that said 85 million share represents not 4,5% but 18% of the free float and this will have a huge impact on the SP, in my view.
So instead of follwing the SP on a daily frustrating basis I will leave it to AB and his team to focus on the things they control and I will return back to this Board on a quarterly basis to check the development on my 0,1% of the shares. Happy Eastern everybody and especially Kraken since I fully share and agree with his frustration. I note that 2024 has started in a good way so its only 9 more months to go.
I think the MUSD 15 is a bit conservative (representing 4,5% of the market value) However, many on this board as well as AM and the likes are LTH so I guess it will have a quite an impact on the SP. With decent production and oilprice it looks positive.
At the last Annual meeting held on 5 June 2023 the shareholders gave Enquest authority to purchase its own shares in the market up to a limit of 10% of its issued ordinary share capital. I think it is a good opportunity and has been a good opportunity for Enquest to start before it becomes too late/expensive. Just imagine what could happen to the shareprice if this happened. You buy 10% for coffee money!!
As a principle I don't have anything against a real WFT. So what is a real WFT?
If we start 1973 the price of oil was 28 USD. If the price had followed inflation that would be equivalent with 165 USD today. If we say the starting point is USD 60 which was the price in 1974 (following the oilcrises)then it would be equivalent with USD 354 today. Today the price is USD 82. I can't see any need for a WFT and I fail to understand the politicians in your Kingdom.
E is repaying its debt, closing down i Sth and now stopping the reporting to Canada. Part of it positive for the SP and part of it not. Any how, it does follow a pattern. Something must be cooking within E, my guess it is to make E more attractive for new shareholders. Lets wait and see
I think we have to leave with the fact that E is an almost dead share at the moment. There are more than 1,9 Billion shares issued and the turnover is a poor 2-8 million shares per day. That means 0,1-0,4% of the shares are shifting hands every day. Following this Board I can almost name everybody who is buying and who is selling. I can't see any new heavy shareholders coming in and i guess the shareholders we loose are the ones who disappear due to natural causes. Until this change nothing will happens. We don't even follow the oil price anymore. In my view this will only change when E decide to repurchase shares or introduce dividend. This can happen within three weeks time but more likely at the Annual Meeting.
I think there is more to be said about the Viaro Energys purchase of 15% of EP and Bressay. Why did they pay almost MUSD 60 unless something is cooking inside Enquest. What do they know that we don't?
Today and since many years back, EP and Bressay are just costing us money and I can't see how we can develop Bressay without someone else coming in with a lot of capital.
Something is going to happen soon.
Thanks voice,
So now we share Bressay with Viaro (not the the strongest partner but still money is money). We are getting closer to shareholder returns or perhaps not.
We have 85% in Bressay and EP and Viaro the balance. Next step being gas tie-back solution to reduce Kraken emissions, as well as an early production solution project at Bressay. All that sounds good, however I miss a partner with sufficient cash to start this project and if we are going to finance it ourselves then I expect the shareholder returns are postponed, again. Anyone who can bring some light on the cost to open up Bressay?
When it comes to EP its clear to me that E is selling 15% of the total value of EP. However, its not clear to me if E is selling 15% out of its 40% or are they selling 15% of Bressay? Anyone?
Also, the increase in SP today is a big and pleasant surprice to me. Could it it be that we are coming very close to 0,5 to EBITDA and shareholder returns are in the cards now and we are attracting new shareholders??
First day without the possibility to trade E shares in Sweden and this is my view on it. From 5/9 50% of the E- shareholders left Enquest. Approx 30 miljon shares were sold (net sales) with a vaue of between MUSD 5 - 6 (A small percentage of total shares and less than Es oilsales for one day).
The 4000 shareholders at Avanza that didn't sell are either LTH or people who do not care. We can now only sell shares if we call our broker and ask him to sell/buy and we also need to pay courtage that is more expensive. This willl clearly reduce the interest in E and reduce the turnover. I think most retail owners will do nothing and wait for "good times", whenever that will happen. I also think the bots are crying in Stockholm since they took care of 80% of the trade before E decided to close down Stockholm. We look forward to information about any M/A, Enquest Producer, Management plan for shareholder returns, etc etc.
Dear Krak,
I appreiciate the comments from Stevo. Please drop the crusade agains him.
From Stockholm I can reportt that approx 48 % of the shareholders at Avanza has now left Enquest since 5/9. We are around 4300 that will now trade through a broker at a higher cost. I assume in this group we are LTH or totally uninterested in E.