Member Info for Papegoja

Short update from Stockholm. Since 5/9 Sept 38% has exited Enquest. Net sales at Avanza is 25 million shares. Today the turnover, so far, is 1,8 million shares. 20% is Avanza trade. What is curios is that Avanza are net purchases of 321 thousand shares. First time since the 5/9 there is a net purchase.

To Krak,

As said before most retail shareholders in Sweden trade with Avanza and Nordnet. I trade with Avanza and we were 7985 shareholders on the 5th of Sept and today we are 5175 shareholders, 35% has left and this is ongoing. I assume the numbers are similar for Nordnet and for the few, who uses the Banks. Why do we sell?

When I buy/sell shares via Avanza I can do it over internet and the prize I pay for a transaction is very low. Going forward I will have to call a broker at Avanza when I would like to buy/sell and the price (courtage) will be much higher. That is the change for us retail shareholders and that is the reason E are loosing a lot of small Swedish shareholders (apart from the bad performance) for shareholders with larger holdings its a non-issue. If loosing small sharholders is good or bad for LTHs, your guess is as good as mine. I assume in the short run its negative (on the margin) but in the long run its good. Avanza has had a net sale of 25 million shares since 5th of Sept. That is not a lot compared to outstanding shares. Also the value of 25 million shares is MUSD 4,3 and when E start to buy back shares that is less than the value of 2 days of production.

Perhaps this can interest some of you.

On the 5of September we were 7895 shareholders in E (trading with Avanza) This was the day E informed us E waas going to exit from Nasdaq Stockholm. Today we are 5442 shareholders. That means that 32% of the shareholders with Avanza has exited E. Net sales from Avanza has been more than 20 million shares. The SP has gone down from SEK 2,49 to SEK 1,837 during the same time. According to IR the exit from Stockholm should not affect the SP. IR welcome to the real world.

On the 4th of Sept Enquest had 7986 shareholders in Sweden (with Avanza) on the 5 th Sept we were informed about the de-listing. Up until today 10% of the shareholders have sold their shares and this trend has been consistent, today there are 7241 shareholders left. IR told us that they didn't think the de-listing had any impact on SP. I would say, in theory they were correct, but in real life they were wrong. Around 15 million shares (net result) has been dumped by Enquest shareholders trading through Avanza. 4 million was sold yesterday when the share recovered. I thought this could be interesting for some of you

I am a LTH but i stilldon't know the following:

* What type of oil we are producing and how much we get per barrel. I follow Brent and hope it is related to Enquest but I don't know.

* I have no clue about the Cash flow projects and I have always been wrong in my estimates. It would be nice if they could clarify.

* I have no idea about Es thinking about EP. All option open since years back??

* I have no idea about shareholder returns and their thinking (despite they said it was a mjor task for managment to come up with a policy already 6 months ago). I assume all option still open??

* The list could go on but I stop here. I will continue to check the Brent price and hope the production is kept in line with their projections.

So, I think this was a good month. Oilprice above 90 USD/b almost the whole month (avarage around 91-92 USD/d) demand is still out there. Production plus 45,000 b/d and positive signs from Magnus and Malaysia in respect of production. What more can we ask for from E when it comes to the core business now when E has started to us Put-options instead oof their old strategy . Lets hope next month will be the same. FCF is coming in the right direction and the debt is going down.

On the negative side I still have not seen any plan from Management when it comes to dividend/repurchasing shares (six months ago they said it was a main task for them to come up with someting), another concern was the de-listing matter. Swedish shareholder were aupset again and rightly so. They all started to sell which was negative for the SP (however, it does not change the core business and since I am not selling I see it more as a possibility to get in at a good price, if you have the money so to speak), Another matter that disturbs me is that Management didn't bring any tangible info about EP or and M/A. They are just pushing these issues forward again. This really frustrates me. Info about carbon capture/ Sullom Voe we get a lot of but for me it only sounds like additional costs. I hope I am wrong. Finally, EPL/Tories/labour? What can I say, it's a mess and I don't see any light in that tunnel.

I dont understand UK anymore. What is wrong with "common sense". We all know the world is in a transition period from fossil fuel to a more green economy. Most people (not the UK politicians) know that we need to do it in a sensible way and it will take some time to do it. Especially, since the whole cilvilisation/socity is built on fossil fuel. However, it looks like the poiticians would like to kill companies, create unemployment and all sort of other problems during therir fast forward transition plans. With that said, my hope is still that common sense will prevail and the politicians will soon come to understand that the majortity of people in UK are note represented by JSO and the likes and they (the politicians) still have time to change their minds to a more balanced approach going forward. In my view, Sunak took a small step forward, Labour took a big step backwards. Lets see how it plays out going forward!

By the way the market in Sth is totally dead. 500,000 share traded today (that is less than 100,000 USD). E is selling oilproducts for 4-5 million USD/d. Avanza has lost 7% of its retail shareholders in E since the 5th of September.

Swedish turnover 430,000 shares (2 hours). But more important, Avanza shareholders in E are continuing to sell (so far) -200,000 shares. This has been going on since 5th sept.

Please remind me. What kind of oil are E producing and how is that oil related to Brent. Do we get more or less than Brent when we sell our oil?

To sekforde,

I think you underestimate the revenue i E. In the six months report we were informed that the averaged production was 45,480 Boepd with a realised oil prices of $75.8/Boe and lets assume 182 days. That gives you MUSD 627. However, the reported revenue and other operating income was $732.7 million. I think the difference between MUSD 627 and MUSD 732 is revenue from gas .

With your numbers 45000*96*365 we arrive at MUSD 1,576. I would add an additional MUSD 200 for gas. Perhaps you took care of that with the price of oil being USD 96?

If we talk about 100 million shares to be sold by Swedish shareholders because of the delisting then we talk about MSEK 200 or MUSD 18 in cash. This is less than one month FCF for E.

Intertersting for some perhaps.

On 2 jun 2022 Avanza had 9491 shareolders in Enquest (highest number ) and the price was SEK 3,6

On 7 aug 2023 Avanza had 8015 shareholders in Enquest and the price was SEK 2,52

Today Avanza has 7745 shareholders in Enquest and the price is SEK 2,02.

Stockholm today. Turnover 2,2 million shares. Retailowners at Avanza net balance today -400,000 shares. Swedish retail owners are selling and that is part of the explanation for the poor performance.

By the way, Avanza shareholders are on the selling side again and this will continue until we are left with the most stubborn retail-holders that are willing to risk their hard earned money to the Banana republic on the other side of the the North Sea.

If I look at the 10 biggest shareholders I would say that almost 40 % are LTH (Im not sure on Avanza and Blackrock. I guess they come and go). That means 40% of the market value will not sell (as a minimum). We have a market value of MUSD 360 today only MUSD 216 is therefore up for sale. With a FCF of between 15-20/m. That means 10% of outstanding shares can be bought in a month (I disregard the fact that SP will increase when this happens). However, my point is that the FCF can dramatically change the SP. In addition it is preferable from a tax point of view for most shareholders. I also think it is preferable from a political point of view. Dividend is never appreciated when it is mentioned in the press. E going from 0% in dividend to lets say 10% while at the same time complaining on the EPL. That will not go down well so I hope for share-repurchase. (Which has already been approved by the Board). Todays oilprice is USD 89 (thats a good day almost USD 15 more than H1), the SP is down but why complain, I'm not selling.

To anyone interested in

In Stockholm a large portion of the trade (80%) was before made by robots (brokers that use AI buying selling almost equal numbers of shares every day taking advantage of small discrepancies in price), and before (one year ago) it was actually possible to see which brokers that were buying and selling. That is not possible anymore (they changed the rules at Nasdaq) and now I can only follow one retail oriented broker (Avanza) but they have most of the small retail shareholders in Sweden . Today after 2 hours of trade Avanza is again on the selling side and they have been there since the H1 report came out. As a snap-shoot today 2,5 million shares has been traded today and Avanza has net sold 1,2 million. What we see now is Swedish retail investors divesting. I can be temporary but this is the situation since the H1 report. (On 5th of Sept 44 million shares were traded and on the 6th sSept 11 million)

So what is next? We follow production(in essence we follow Kraken tankers), we hope production will be in line with projections (which is the Enquest way), we follow the oil price and every morning when it is above USD 85 we should feel good if it goes down we fell bad. The Financial calender for E is of course empty for the rest of 2023. If we are lucky we get some operational update in November and we can also expect some sort of information about the delisting. What else? (Good news about EPL is not likely in my view) M&A (I wish, as long as we don't have to pay anything for it). Frustrated, Yes I am.

Thanks Stevo, it brings some clarity. And with the same logic I take the opportunity to calculate 45,000 x 182x 87,5 (no ceiling on hedge) +MUSD 100 (gas) and we get MUSD 816 in operating income in H2.

Can someone explain the following section in the H1 report?

Group net production averaged 45,480 Boepd, Revenue and other operating income of $732.7 million reflects lower realised oil prices of $75.8/Boe

If I compute 45,480 Boeepd with 182 days and a price of USD 75,8 I get MUSD 627. E arrive at MUSD 732???

Krak,

You are absolutely right "today". At the time of the rights issue we were "losers" big time.