Member Info for Papegoja

To Stumpmy. As I recall when the windfall tax was introduced (the 25%) by Rishi Sunak in May. He said something like "the price is now extrodinary high because of the war, hcompared to a "normal price" of around USD 70. However, when the EPL was approved no floor was introduced. When Hunt entered the scen the EPL was increased to 35% and the long stop date extended and now we have something that is some sort of confiscation of funds disregaring issues such as historical performance, hedges , type of business, precense in UK etc etc.

We add another 2 % to the SP in Stockholm today. Enjoy it tomorrow !!

At the moment there is absoulutely no interst in E in Stockholm. The daily turnover is a joke and the limited trades we see are mostlt in the hand of robots. If you put in an order for 20-50000 shares (USD 6000-15000) you can move the SP with up to a one percent and the same if you would like to sell, then the SP falls with one percent. With that said I can see huge potential in the SP if E decides to repurchase shares. I also think that repurchases is the way to go in UK at the moment when the whole country seems to be in turmoil. I can't see how any government in UK can do anything with the EPL in case the oilcompanies increase or starts to pay dividend. From a tax point of view it is also less attractive in Sweden to receive dividend compared to an increased SP following a repurchase of shares.

Oil price at USD 80 which is more or less equivalent with our ceiling for our hedges so no major concern here for me. We are making our MUSD 1,5/day and no news are therefore good news in my view. The turnover in Stockholm is non existent, so far after one hour of trading 270,000 shares with a total value of USD 67,000 and most of it being robots. It looks like all of us are waiting for the report in March. If E just indicates that part of the FCF will be used for purchasing shares next year I can't see anything stopping the SP to fly.

You would expect an artic blast would impact the oilprice. It did! Oil price down 3%. How can increased demand and limited supply lead to lower prices? Even when I am right the end result is negative. I am to old for this s..t

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Arctic-Blast-Sparks-Panic-Buying-Of-Heating-Oil-In-Ireland.html

I agree with Jeff and Quest. This share is is killing me and time is just passing without any upside for us LTH. The performance is good, management is doing a fine job, AB is aligned with us, the oilprice is over 80 and E is making a 1MUSD/day. With all that you could expect some reflection in the SP. I have been waiting for a long time but it looks like we have to wait for even longer. This time we are talking about March (next report) and unless something happens then I'm out.

I agree. I guess dividend or share buyback is a must. It is strange we can't seem to attract any buyers. If you look at net debt (sept 2022) it is MUSD 750 and then you add the market cap MUSD 400 (today) you get a total value of the company of 1150 MUSD. If I had 1150 MUSD I would buy the whole company and repay the debt. I would then have a FCF of plus 500 MUSD/year. Unfortunately i don't have MUSD 1150 and I guess the rest of you are not interested in selling at todays SP.

1 MUSD/day and we were at Net Debt of MUSD 750 end of Sept. That will mean a Net debt of 675 MUSD today.

During the last two months oil has fallen from 111 USD to 100. E has during the same period kept its value at 29 (SEK 3,57). I therefore think that the market is slowly starting to invest in E and an increase in the oilprice back to 110 will put the SP much higher than before. The reason in my view is the solid performance of E confirmed in the HY report.

I don't know if this information is of any value but today after 3 hours trading the turnover in Sth has been 6 million shares. What is unusual is that Nordea (normally not what most people consider robot trading but rather a Bank that sell shares for thei customers). As from 09.00 until 10.30 they sold 1,2 million shares net (they also bought 120,000 shares). After 10.30 nothing. What is perhaps interesting is that the SP lost 7% during this period and it is now back at -2% (still not good ) but perhaps an explanation. Since we are ahead of LSE in opening hours it could be that LSE just followed us down. I don't know. Any thoughts on the subject?

So with that explanation you say the following. Lets say E has hedged 100% of its production at 70 USD (Which would be an average price during last 5 years) It would generate a small/normal profit. Not a profit based on the war. Then E would still have to pay a 25% tax on that. I thought the purpose was to pay a WFT on excess profits.

Thanks KO, if LT and KK can influence the WFT in a positive direction it would be good. E was hit hard by it when it was announced. The details of it are still in dark in my view. For instance how is a hedged oilprice (like the ones E has) affected by a WFT. Will the WFT kick in above a certain price in oil?

On this side of of the North sea, I didn't think the election of Truss had anything to do with the SP in E (For me it is still the same Toryparty and the same stupid WFT). All oil companies are moving in the same direction today and I relate that to the stop of Gas from Russia. If Truss has anything to do with Oilprice please enlighten me!

Next update is expected on 6th of Sept.
Lets have a competition!
I expect Net Debt to end up at MUSD 760 (end of August) target for E is MUSD 500
I expect Net Debt to EBITDA to be 0,8 (end of August) target for E is 0,5.

In my view all targets will be met end of November 2022 (in 3 months time).

It's a joke the way Oilprice moves now. 2nd of August 100 USD, 4th August 94 USD, 11th of August back to 100 USD, 16th of August down to 92 USD, 24th of August back to 100 USD again, 25th down to 95 of August USD, 29th up to 103 USD and today down to 95 USD. Arguments for the two sides. Recession/Covid/Interest means panic (low prices) and on the other side. No spare capacity/No investments done in oil/ limited supply means panic (high prices. To this we can add Enquest specifics as the info about WFT, the EP, and the upcoming HY report. It is clearly a roller coaster and I'm considering to start trading the share instead of sitting on my hands.

Unless you already know Enquest is up 3,4% today Monday in Stockholm.

Is there any reason for E to keep the RBL? In my view it comes with restrictions (hedges) that we don't want. However, it also comes with access to finance (I assume). With that said I think the only reason to keep it is that E is considering some sort of new investment (Which I don't like). I would like them to get rid of the RBL and start talking about dividend. I have waited long enough for shareholder returns.

To Zippy Frood.
My view on the SPR. It will stop immediately after the mid term elections! So hang in there.

Clearly a challenging environment we live at the moment. The share price moves up and down 2-5 % on a daily basis and sometimes intraday. The turnover in Sweden is minimal and most trades are conducted by robots. Can’t see any interest from investors and that will probably not change until AB mention the word “dividend” and we get some clarity on the WFT.

I look forward to the six month report (to be released on Sept 9) and especially the guidance and outlook. I expect the the net debt to be further reduced to MUSD 770 and the netdebt ebitda ratio to be at 0,8-0,9. If this happens then I expect Barclays (especially) and others to come out with some positive reports. I am also waiting for some information about the Enquest Producer and the WFT (the first draft did hit us hard and in my view any amendments will be positive for E)

My view about the oil is that it is on its way up. There is no spare capacity anywhere, Russia will have more problems to sell its oil, the release from the SPR is coming to an end and Bidens attempts to keep the price low (to win the election) are not sustainable, in a worst case he will release more oil but that will only be a temporary solution for him.