Member Info for Padd1

I understand the fall in price is eroding margin. But would they have planned to float a business in anticipation of coking coal prices going up significantly? If breakeven is c$215 - seems strange price was only c$190 when floated. My numbers could be wrong!

I understand that the downward price movement in coking coal prices isn't ideal. But ahead of the company float in Oct 2021, and around the time when the business would have been being planned and assumptions made, from memory I thought coking coal price was around $190pt. Surely the business was planned on this rough rate. I'm sure someone will correct me if i'm wrong.

Came across this last week in Jan. Not aware its been shared on this board. Makes interesting reading. If I'm reading it right it's good news for Ben. But I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/2023/novel-adaptation-for-existing-blast-furnaces-could-reduce-steelmaking-emissions-by-90

My understanding is If any single individual / business purchases 3% or above they have to report the holding. Obviously if they haven't crossed that threshold they can keep quiet. It can take a few days for the information to be declared. And from experience on other shares this can sometimes be ignored or a very long delay.

If MBU wanted to sell to institutional investors I don't think it would have been such an apparently chaotic sale.
I'm sure we'll find out in the next few days.

On a previous Roast interview Adam mentioned getting a company in to accurately value BENS resources. Anyone remember the timeline for this? This coupled with getting the 2HWM up and running, regular 6/7 trains per month should see the sp rerate hopefully by Easter.

I think you're giving PATT credit for being able to influence the share price. He clearly has an agenda. Only time will tell if he is right. From my research I'm happy with progress made to date. I thought we might be a bit further forward by now but I strongly believe we're in for a strong few months. WH Ireland are a reputable business - they are positive. All the research I've done suggests this is a company that can deliver. I've said it so many times there's no substitute for money in the bank - when the 2 HWM is in production and has delivered the volume we think is possible I'm sure there will be a re-rate. DYOR

Decent amount of revenue would appear to be kicking in now. What $ profit are we expecting to make on a short tonne?
Like many people on here I'm scraping my head why sp is still mid 20s - I guess a lot of negative sentiment towards coal businesses - even though this is met coal.

Adam has always spoken about (optimistically) turning Ben in to a $1bn company.
If that was ever achieved sp would be $2.66 (£2.21).
I appreciate we are a very very very long way off that being delivered but if we are selling 70kt a month consistently and hitting original planned profit margins sp should be well north of 57p.
10p annual dividend would be returning 17% at 57p. sp wouldn't stick at 57p for long. Obviously market price of coal, update on volume in ground and good old sentiment would need to be in bc favour to really drive sp.
I don't believe much will happen to sp until we are constantly hitting and selling the above volumes.
Positive broker notes would be nice but no substitute for sold coal and cash in bank / returned to shareholders.

Every bulletin board has a TC. He keeps throwing punches trying to discredit the business but it us reassuring that he can’t land a punch.
I’m confident in the management of Ben and believe we are still heading in the right direction, it’s just taken a little longer than I expected.
I’m sure there will be further bumps along the road but agree we should be in better position come Easter.

Oh dear…after topping up last week at 24p I thought I was being flippant when I said the price would now fall!
I guess the next possible boost to the share price could be a positive house broker note - but not sure there’s much value in that.
I’m now 50% down. Very depressing. Starting to worry I’ve misread this business. But every time I look at the business fundamentals I still see a bright future but just need to hold my nerve but easier said than done.

I topped up with 28k more shares earlier today...price guaranteed to now head south!

Emirates clearly happy to invest in VOD at these prices - good to see someone has confidence. We are clearly in for a bumpy ride next few months but there are still plenty of positives around VOD. These include: expenditure on new tech should start declining in coming years - leaving more cash to pay off debt, negotiations with 3 might deliver significant cost savings to UK business and from memory don't VOD own 80% of Vantage Towers - could be used to pay off huge slug of debt. I don't think it's all doom and gloom.

I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree. I accept there is no alternative to met coal in steel production. Which is good because I’m holding a significant volume in BC. I think currently the working life of BC was given as circa 20 years - when at full production. And unfortunately thermal coal will continue to be heavily relied on all the time people can make healthy profits. It’s back in vogue largely because Putin has weaponised gas. There are plenty of alternatives to thermal coal but obviously the switch over will take time and too many people put short term profit ahead of the environment and the long term damage and cost we are doing to the planet.
Back to BC, it’s a shame the sp is drifting down again. It looks like big institutional investors are either not buying the story from Adam or investment decisions are being influenced by your lunatics. Cash in the bank, positive broker notes, more trains, second HWM running at full production is all that is needed.
I’m also of the opinion that the sp would be a lot higher off we weren’t Uk listed. Working in Hong Kong I have come across a lot of people who are nite very reluctant to invest in Uk equities. Govt lost a lot of trust. Brexit obviously not helped (obviously we’ll agree to disagree on that as well - so please don’t attack me).
I think we’ve just got to sit and wait.

I'm happy with the "lunatics" dragging us to net zero. I would suggest the lunatics are the climate change deniers.
I don't invest in thermal coal and agree it doesn't - or shouldn't have a future - but will invest in met coal - currently no commercially practical alternative and not likely to be for a long time.
BC have enough met coal for this to be a +10 year project.

Bluesonic - what’s your rationale for that prediction?

Probably because most got in at the float price of 10p - I’m guessing.

I would say there has been lots of evidence of progress in the past year. The current sp is frustrating. Wash plant, rail spur, new permit are just some of the progress made. We know other things are also happening like prep for second HWM. But I accept we need to get further off-take agreements signed, contract with rail company confirming more trains, delivery of second HWM - but most importantly getting production volume up to 80 tpm - and sold on a regular basis with cash in the bank. One thing BEN can't control is cost of met coal but I still believe shareholders with patience will be rewarded.

I appreciate we are waiting on lots of news and recent fall in coal price obviously not great. But I feel the best bit of news we could get is confirmation of a contract with rail company guaranteeing minimum 4 trains a month. Getting that would be good for my health. Anyone know how much coal we now have stockpiled?

I don't have that problem.