Member Info for Padd1

Double! No chance. Merger sounds like good news but suspect after sp surge (splutter) it will loose momentum.

I’ve bought in at 73p with intention of long term hold.

Senza - the FT has analysts forecasts ranging from 180p to 68p - with the average 103p.

With such a spread its clear the so called "experts" don't have a clue or are just putting out forecasts (most likely) to suit whatever policy they are currently pursuing.

Clearly VOD has big issues but they are not insurmountable.

I think in the long term VOD will resolve its issues but a lot of patience is going to be required.

It generates vast sums of cash. The new CEO needs to be given time to turn this oil tanker around.

Judgements after just a few months don't seem fair.

Pedro - I’m assuming you grow your own vegetables, raise your own meat, sow your own cotton, make your own cloths and avoid all retailers. Negotiating discounts is standard practice. I’m sure any supplier to Boo who cannot afford to lower their prices can share open book costing. If Boo can get the product cheaper they should do to maximise profit. But always staying within the law.

Bc1975 - apologies if I came across flippant - wasn't the intention.

I guess I get frustrated when I read posts that always appear critical and talk the business down.

I appreciate the nature of chat forums like this - everyone is entitled their opinion and we shouldn't get personal.

I guess we all have different investment strategies.

I'm a medium to long term investor in Ben. Having invested in mining companies previously I think Ben have achieved a lot in a short space of time. Yes, there have been some delays but these have been beyond the managements control and sometimes the business has been too optimistic.

I agree a financial update would be useful but I don't think we should be spoon fed information on a continuous basis through RNS updates - the company needs to be given room to breathe and grow.

For what it's worth I think met coal price might fall further in the short term before a rally later in the summer - at least that is what most analysts seem to be predicting but I guess we should take so-called "expert" opinions with a pinch of salt.

There is a lot of negative sentiment in the wider economy which is clearly not helping.

Bc1975 - I agree some updated financials would be good. I would like to understand what price branded “Bens” coal is being sold at. Assume a premium on market price but hire much.

I wouldn’t keep obsessing about 2nd HWM. Company said it was going into production in interviews and we’ve seen plenty of videos of it spitting out coal. Company has said it will not keep issuing RNS after RNS.

Either trust the company / management or sell up. As far as I can see it is factors outside the businesses control impacting the company. Management have delivered.

I’m happy to hold long term and accept the risks.

But would like my 212,000 shares to be trading higher!!!

I believe it is operational. But not working at full capacity. We shouldn’t expect an RNS release for every bit of news. Adam was very clear several months back that they were going to stop the continuous drip feed off RNS releases.

From all the different posts it’s clear no one seems to know how profitable the mine is at the current met coal price. We don’t know what premium we might be getting for “Bens Creek” branded quality coal. We just need to be patient and wait for a financial update.

Does anyone know when Ben is legally required to next publish financial data?

CJohnSpain - not sure if you were following Ben when they took the decision to sell their HWM.

They had spent a lot repairing and my understanding was it was never fully operational and needed more work.

I'm yet to speak to anyone in the industry who think Ben made the wrong call getting a contract with Mega.

It has been a frustrating delay getting 2nd HWM up and running but you seem to be assuming Ben going it alone would have been better - common industry practice doesn't suggest going alone was the right thing to do.

I'm a long term holder and happy with progress - obviously would have preferred things to have moved faster - but happy where we are operationally. Market price is my main worry.

Going through analysts predictions they have met coal to be around $240t going forward.
Obviously you have to take analysts predictions with a pinch of salt.

I suspect nothing will materialise as usual and it's all wishful thinking.
But any initial offer would probably be around 120p mark - but would then hopefully flush out more interested parties and push it towards 170-185p.
Here's hoping.

That's the great thing with owning shares - everyone is welcome to throw in the towel at any time.
But I suspect most people will still sit tight. Delays are clearly very frustrating. But despite current delays this business still has plenty going for it and things will hopefully change quickly.
Company has relatively low debt (compared to competitors), licence to mine (startups are unlikely to get new licences), has own operational wash-plant, has own rail line.
Clearly issues with regular collections from rail company and teething problems with getting 2nd HWM operational - but both are fixable - hopefully sooner rather than later.
Falling coal price is a concern - but still room for good profit.
I always thought the business was a little optimistic to be fully up and running by end 2022 - but in the life of the mine it is only a small delay. This mine has coal for 20 years. If you are a medium / long term holder this is just a short manageable delay.
Business was clear several months back they were going to stop the continuous drip drip of news via RNS updates.
But accept next RNS is a big one.

Frustrating drop. But shouldn't surprise anyone. But we should still be making healthy profit at this price. Unless things have changed drastically we should still be making enough to deliver hoped for divi at any price above $225. But wiggle room reducing.

Someone mentioned they had heard that more parts were needed for new HWM. Where did that info come from?

A breakeven of $175 would make sense. All long term forecasts have met coal at just above current price for rest of this year and next but maybe a further fall in 2025. Surely business never expected $300+ long term - market forecasts never been that. Aware Ben will have been impacted by inflation like all businesses but Adam has also spoken of significant production cost savings. We need $50 profit to hit enough to pay 10p annual divi. Hopefully end of year results will make things clearer. Appreciate Ben has some debt but doesn't appear to be carrying as much debt as a lot of miners.
I'm heavily invested and hoping for positive news to get sp moving again.

I understand the fall in price is eroding margin. But would they have planned to float a business in anticipation of coking coal prices going up significantly? If breakeven is c$215 - seems strange price was only c$190 when floated. My numbers could be wrong!

I understand that the downward price movement in coking coal prices isn't ideal. But ahead of the company float in Oct 2021, and around the time when the business would have been being planned and assumptions made, from memory I thought coking coal price was around $190pt. Surely the business was planned on this rough rate. I'm sure someone will correct me if i'm wrong.

Came across this last week in Jan. Not aware its been shared on this board. Makes interesting reading. If I'm reading it right it's good news for Ben. But I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/2023/novel-adaptation-for-existing-blast-furnaces-could-reduce-steelmaking-emissions-by-90

My understanding is If any single individual / business purchases 3% or above they have to report the holding. Obviously if they haven't crossed that threshold they can keep quiet. It can take a few days for the information to be declared. And from experience on other shares this can sometimes be ignored or a very long delay.

If MBU wanted to sell to institutional investors I don't think it would have been such an apparently chaotic sale.
I'm sure we'll find out in the next few days.

On a previous Roast interview Adam mentioned getting a company in to accurately value BENS resources. Anyone remember the timeline for this? This coupled with getting the 2HWM up and running, regular 6/7 trains per month should see the sp rerate hopefully by Easter.

I think you're giving PATT credit for being able to influence the share price. He clearly has an agenda. Only time will tell if he is right. From my research I'm happy with progress made to date. I thought we might be a bit further forward by now but I strongly believe we're in for a strong few months. WH Ireland are a reputable business - they are positive. All the research I've done suggests this is a company that can deliver. I've said it so many times there's no substitute for money in the bank - when the 2 HWM is in production and has delivered the volume we think is possible I'm sure there will be a re-rate. DYOR

Decent amount of revenue would appear to be kicking in now. What $ profit are we expecting to make on a short tonne?
Like many people on here I'm scraping my head why sp is still mid 20s - I guess a lot of negative sentiment towards coal businesses - even though this is met coal.