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Would be good if someone could confirm my understanding from Adam's interview - am I right that currently we are making $27 per short tonne at current market price?
Is the 77k produce each month 77k short tonnes?
So BEN is making $2m per month profit.
The company only posted an update on HWM on 14th August - saying it would be up and running from around the 21st August. I don't think they will provide a further update until it is bedded in and been running for a few weeks. The company has also stated several months back that they will stop the continual drip feed of RNS updates.
I think if HWM WASN'T in production we would have seen an RNS - if 14th August update wasn't met.
Bigkahuna - lets hope the met price continues to rise.
But looking at the long term history of met coal prices the last couple of years were an anomaly. I don't think we'll see those extreme prices anytime soon.
Typically it has traded under $150. I'm not suggesting it's going to return to those levels but I think a price somewhere between $240-$280 is more likely.
Even at those prices Ben should make plenty of cash to distribute a healthy divi.
A steady sustainable price rise is more favourable than a boom and bust in my opinion.
Ilovesushi - I think the previous owners of Bens Creek were in a lot more debt than current operators - although debt rising. But agree we need met coal prices to start to rise. As for depth of recession - who knows what will happen. US economy may be slowing but is still looking fairly robust. US has a massive infrastructure build programme planned - that's going to need a lot of steel. Regarding China their economy might not see the growth levels of recent but the economy is still expected to grow between 3-4.5% and living in Hong Kong there is a lot of talk about govt stimulus to be soon announced. And don't forget India - massive growth and potential for more.
Basically, we don't have a clue. But worrying times. Share price certainly won't recover until met price starts moving north again.
As for the incident at the mine - it's a good job it was responsibility of contractor - many have criticised using a contractor but maybe not such a bad idea after all.
Agree - great update. Future looks good. But sp drops - no logic to FTSE.
Money sponge - out of interest which analyst is forecasting 14p?
I always take analysts forecasts with a pinch of salt - I think they're usually pretty clueless and just pushing their own agenda
of the 25 analysts the FT tracks they have a median target of 42p, high 85p and low 30p. a spread like that pretty much says it all.
Of course we all believe how successful you are Porsche!!!
For someone doing so well for themselves you seem very angry!
This share continues to disappoint. But great divi. Still confident good times will return - eventually - I'm happy to hold.
Senza - the FT has analysts forecasts ranging from 180p to 68p - with the average 103p.
With such a spread its clear the so called "experts" don't have a clue or are just putting out forecasts (most likely) to suit whatever policy they are currently pursuing.
Clearly VOD has big issues but they are not insurmountable.
I think in the long term VOD will resolve its issues but a lot of patience is going to be required.
It generates vast sums of cash. The new CEO needs to be given time to turn this oil tanker around.
Judgements after just a few months don't seem fair.
Pedro - I’m assuming you grow your own vegetables, raise your own meat, sow your own cotton, make your own cloths and avoid all retailers. Negotiating discounts is standard practice. I’m sure any supplier to Boo who cannot afford to lower their prices can share open book costing. If Boo can get the product cheaper they should do to maximise profit. But always staying within the law.
Bc1975 - apologies if I came across flippant - wasn't the intention.
I guess I get frustrated when I read posts that always appear critical and talk the business down.
I appreciate the nature of chat forums like this - everyone is entitled their opinion and we shouldn't get personal.
I guess we all have different investment strategies.
I'm a medium to long term investor in Ben. Having invested in mining companies previously I think Ben have achieved a lot in a short space of time. Yes, there have been some delays but these have been beyond the managements control and sometimes the business has been too optimistic.
I agree a financial update would be useful but I don't think we should be spoon fed information on a continuous basis through RNS updates - the company needs to be given room to breathe and grow.
For what it's worth I think met coal price might fall further in the short term before a rally later in the summer - at least that is what most analysts seem to be predicting but I guess we should take so-called "expert" opinions with a pinch of salt.
There is a lot of negative sentiment in the wider economy which is clearly not helping.
Bc1975 - I agree some updated financials would be good. I would like to understand what price branded “Bens” coal is being sold at. Assume a premium on market price but hire much.
I wouldn’t keep obsessing about 2nd HWM. Company said it was going into production in interviews and we’ve seen plenty of videos of it spitting out coal. Company has said it will not keep issuing RNS after RNS.
Either trust the company / management or sell up. As far as I can see it is factors outside the businesses control impacting the company. Management have delivered.
I’m happy to hold long term and accept the risks.
But would like my 212,000 shares to be trading higher!!!
I believe it is operational. But not working at full capacity. We shouldn’t expect an RNS release for every bit of news. Adam was very clear several months back that they were going to stop the continuous drip feed off RNS releases.
From all the different posts it’s clear no one seems to know how profitable the mine is at the current met coal price. We don’t know what premium we might be getting for “Bens Creek” branded quality coal. We just need to be patient and wait for a financial update.
Does anyone know when Ben is legally required to next publish financial data?
CJohnSpain - not sure if you were following Ben when they took the decision to sell their HWM.
They had spent a lot repairing and my understanding was it was never fully operational and needed more work.
I'm yet to speak to anyone in the industry who think Ben made the wrong call getting a contract with Mega.
It has been a frustrating delay getting 2nd HWM up and running but you seem to be assuming Ben going it alone would have been better - common industry practice doesn't suggest going alone was the right thing to do.
I'm a long term holder and happy with progress - obviously would have preferred things to have moved faster - but happy where we are operationally. Market price is my main worry.
I suspect nothing will materialise as usual and it's all wishful thinking.
But any initial offer would probably be around 120p mark - but would then hopefully flush out more interested parties and push it towards 170-185p.
Here's hoping.
That's the great thing with owning shares - everyone is welcome to throw in the towel at any time.
But I suspect most people will still sit tight. Delays are clearly very frustrating. But despite current delays this business still has plenty going for it and things will hopefully change quickly.
Company has relatively low debt (compared to competitors), licence to mine (startups are unlikely to get new licences), has own operational wash-plant, has own rail line.
Clearly issues with regular collections from rail company and teething problems with getting 2nd HWM operational - but both are fixable - hopefully sooner rather than later.
Falling coal price is a concern - but still room for good profit.
I always thought the business was a little optimistic to be fully up and running by end 2022 - but in the life of the mine it is only a small delay. This mine has coal for 20 years. If you are a medium / long term holder this is just a short manageable delay.
Business was clear several months back they were going to stop the continuous drip drip of news via RNS updates.
But accept next RNS is a big one.
Frustrating drop. But shouldn't surprise anyone. But we should still be making healthy profit at this price. Unless things have changed drastically we should still be making enough to deliver hoped for divi at any price above $225. But wiggle room reducing.
Someone mentioned they had heard that more parts were needed for new HWM. Where did that info come from?
A breakeven of $175 would make sense. All long term forecasts have met coal at just above current price for rest of this year and next but maybe a further fall in 2025. Surely business never expected $300+ long term - market forecasts never been that. Aware Ben will have been impacted by inflation like all businesses but Adam has also spoken of significant production cost savings. We need $50 profit to hit enough to pay 10p annual divi. Hopefully end of year results will make things clearer. Appreciate Ben has some debt but doesn't appear to be carrying as much debt as a lot of miners.
I'm heavily invested and hoping for positive news to get sp moving again.