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I don't believe Art Berman's figure is supposed to be subjected to that degree of scrutiny.
Anyone who thinks about it must realise that oil became as universally desirable as it did (and still is), because it, and everything it powers, became mankind's new slave.
Regardless of exactly how many days, months, or years of human effort a barrel of oil provides, Art Berman's main point is that no other energy source currently provides so much, so conveniently, so cheaply

"Phasing out" is hardly rushing to abandon such funding.
In any case, Boris made a speech earlier this year supporting the exploitation of the FI fossil fuel reserves.

AND the Government has to make such noises to appease the environmentalists, but anyone with an ounce of sense knows that humanity has painted itself into a very unpleasant corner with its reliance on oil.

AND, UKEF loan to the FI is (liberated exactly 38 years ago) is not quite the same as loaning the money to some Middle Eastern state, with which we have little or no connection.

AND HMG stands to gain by the loan, not only getting all the money back, + interest, but receiving payments from the FIG.

AND there are building projects currently starting in the FI, one of them to provide improved accommodation for the UK defence forces staff and families, which wouldn't be considered if we were about to throw in the towel and leave the F Islanders to get on with things on their own. After 38 years, the only justification for this is in anticipation of oil production.

AND, if Art Berman was correct in his article, that one barrel of oil contains 4.5 years'-worth of human effort, then once humanity starts regenerating the World economy (which it's going to have to do), there isn't another energy source capable of providing World energy needs as cheaply.

I think that'll do for now, except to say that if/when the PoO falls as it has been lately, as long as it doesn't fall too far, then it merely improves the probability of oil providing the principal means of post-COVID economic regeneration.

I've just checked my records and I finally sold all remaining RKH shares in March 2012 for an average of £3.30.
Considering I'd accumulated them for an average of under 30p, I thought I'd done OK.

Like many here, I started to get back in too early.

I didn't say it wasn't possible (clearly it was possible, which is why the sp fell so quickly), it's just surprising how many posters now suddenly claim they sold out at £5+ and we all know they can't all be telling the truth.
Some posters may have sold some of their shares, but most missed the boat. To claim that they all managed to sell all their holdings at above £5 is just not credible.
The reason for highlighting this now, is to warn others reading these posts to be careful before taking any action, based on what these posters are saying now.

Clearly, Ralph, while you've been so busy posting the same old stuff, you weren't paying attention.
As finvestor says, wraith claims: ".......when I sold around £5+ level", and there have been other similar claims over on ADVFN.
While wraith may have taken his profits at some point around that time, he'd have been a VERY clever bunny to have got out at the top, bearing in mind the sentiment at the time and how briefly RKH shares stayed above £5.

Anyway, doesn't really matter now.

As for banana skins, I suppose another could be that the OM arbitration award amounts to 2/6d (that shows my age). It could be that RKH does get an award, but so derisory that, apart from having "won" the claim, it's been a complete waste of everyone's time and of no help, just at the very time we need it.
I don't believe we're going to get the $200 million, the $500 million, or the $1 billion (you may remember that some extreme optimists quoted such figures back in 2017), but a relatively modest sum is all that's necessary to put some foundations under RKH, as long as greasy Crispin doesn't come back and try to get his nasty little mitts on it.

Well, a decent OM arbitration award would help ensure RKH can continue to wait for everyone (PMO, NAVITAS, UKEF, etc.) else to get their act together.

Like others here, I start to feel the stars aligning, assuming no more banana skins. While one cannot ignore the possibility of more banana skins, if there are any, we'd be bloody unlucky, as I think we've already had more than our fair share, if you look back to October 2010.
BTW, I doubt the clever Dicks who claim to have sold out completely at £5+, as that was so short-lived and the euphoria so great, that you'd have had to have been God himself to have got that right. I do accept that some may have taken profits - I did and then I sold all the rest at about £3.30, when I could see which way the trend was going, but I can't claim to have sold-out at £5+ - if you can remember what it was like at the time, you simply wouldn't have done that and I had bought all my RKH shares at around 22p to 25p.
I never imagined then, that in March 2020 the sp would be just above 4p and I doubt if anyone else did either, whatever they may claim now.

Anyway, whatever the climate change issues, Art Berman put it pretty succinctly that post-COVID, the World has an awful lot of economic recovery to do if there isn't going to be mass civil unrest and worse. With one barrel of oil equivalent to 4.5 years of human energy/work, there isn't any other energy source that can deliver that much energy as cheaply as oil.
So there you have it - the penny will drop sooner or later, with or without Greta Thunberg.

P.S. I'm not arguing in favour of trashing the planet, as I live here too, it's just acknowledging the economic facts.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Saudi-Arabia-Will-Lose-The-Next-Oil-Price-War.html

Whether the rest of the NFB will be exploited remains to be seen, but once the infrastructure is in place, with the high quality of the oil, it seems very probable.

Finley, by writing "........trying to get the money out of the Italians is another issue in itself ", you show that you don't understand the workings of this arbitration process and why that route was chosen by RKH and its legal advisers.

You'd have been right if RKH had been claiming through the Italian Courts, but like you say, that's "another issue in itself "!!

Of course there isn't a queue at SM's door.
Anyone, who we haven't heard about, interested in exploiting SL, will wait until the right moment, when PMO/RKH are on their knees and then pick-up the lot for a penny. There's no honour, or mercy in this game.
SL's going to happen, have not doubt about that, but perhaps not as anticipated.
An OM award, even quite a small one, would enable RKH to sit tight, while everyone else around them goes down.

Moral of the story: Don't mess with Mogger.

Regarding licence renewals, the consequences of COVID-19 apply to the FI and to FIG, PMO, RKH and us, so unless there's another global "once-in-100-years" event, I think we can reasonably assume that things will eventually resume, once the situation has stabilised and is clearer (e.g. better population-wide testing, a vaccine, an effective treatment, etc.).

It's going to be different, but exactly HOW different remains to be seen.
Assuming oil is essential to the Worldwide economic recovery, then FI licences will be renewed/extended and probably with the same licencees.

However, crystal ball gazing is dangerous and pointless. For example, when lockdown was initiated, most of the speculation was about people getting fed up and rebelling after a few weeks of it. While not everyone has participated fully, the current public reaction, not anticipated only 7 weeks ago, is that the majority are too frightened to go out, especially on public transport, even though they dream of a return to "normality" one day. They're certainly not rebelling as anticipated by many.

So speculating here about:
- what WILL happen to the SL project in the FI and
- what WILL happen with the licence renewals and
- what WILL happen to the RKH sp
is just a mug's game and if you've any sense, you'll already have realised this.

It's not a bloody court case, nit wit.

Godders, this has only been awful for those who bought high and either sold low, or just sat on their hands watching the sp collapse, like you I believe.
You complained that I said that I'd bought @18p, but I didn't just hang on to them - when they rose to over 40p, I sold some to bank some profit, so having a go at me is really publicising what a wally you've been.
I was the one who told everyone to watch out for banana skins, when the likes of SimpleSimon (AKA Nigoil) kept on saying several times/day, every day: "FID/sanction 2019 FACT".

Godders, you've obviously not properly read/understood what I've written now, or in the past, and/or you've chosen to ignore the bits you didn't like.

If you are going to quote from what I posted ages/years ago, don't take it out of context and then try to discredit it.

Hubris is a bad quality - pity you don't demonstrate that yourself.

Godders, a lot of water has flowed since then and if you'd been sensible, 18p WAS a real bargain at that time.
For the record, while SimpleSimon (AKA Nigoil) was banging on about "SL FID Sanction in 2019 FACT", I was the one warning everyone to beware of banana skins, although I hadn't anticipated anything on the scale of Covid-19.

So what did you do when NAVITAS hit the scene at the beginning of the year? Buy some more bargain RKH shares @ 23p, or bank a bit of cash?

I think you need to grow up a bit and take responsibility for your own mistakes and as you don't know how I've "come out of this", I'd just keep a low profile if I were you.

Oh dear, Godders, not another PI Muppet, who bought high, then sat on his hands as the sp plummeted and now blames me for his stupidity?

Big boys have to take responsibility for their own decisions (or lack of them) and their actions (or lack of them).
Can't you and your buddies think of anything better to do than waste your lives posting endless rubbish here?

Foxtrot Oscar Gozzie.

Come on Gozzie - where's your "clever" answer to that then?
Fallen asleep again?

Yes Gozzie, because I'm consistent and I'm right, unlike you and the other idiots.

In answer to the original question, (before the idiots here hijacked this thread with their usual, endless rubbish), reams of stuff must have been posted here about the OM arbitration award, so Ralphy - while wasting your life posting all your rubbish, you clearly haven't been paying attention.

The arbitration award ISN'T a court case. RKH and their lawyers knew that suing the Italian Govt. in their Courts would be a waste of time (like your silly posts), take for ever and if a judgement was given in their favour, would never be paid, which is why they followed the route they have.
If the Macaronis don't pay-up, then Italian State assets can be seized and RKH lawyers have chosen the USA as the enforcement jurisdiction.
Like others, I see the long delay in announcing the award (or otherwise) as a positive sign that an award is certain. However, I see the Coronavirus as having an adverse influence on the size of the award. In the short-term, with Brent down to $20 and below, that must reduce the profit component of any award. On the other hand, Big Oil companies are currently slashing their exploration budgets and US shale producers are bound to be affected.
So while World oil reserves are currently full to the brim, that means there isn't anywhere else to store any more of the stuff at rock bottom prices, hence the negative futures PoO.
The only way for World government virus funding to be repaid will be through greater economic activity, which is a great worry to the environmentalists. However, it probably means higher PoO, once World economic activity resumes. Therefore, that could mean the arbitration award might be somewhat higher to take account of future higher PoO - who knows?

I'm not going to write all this again for those like Ralphy who don't pay attention, but suffice it to say that there's very likely to be a substantial award, but how much is anyone's guess, so like the rest of us, you'll just have to wait.
In the mean time, spend less time and effort posting rubbish and a bit more time researching/understanding what's going on and you might end up a bit wiser.