RE: I still don't get it13 Jan 2020 12:13
The way I see it is that the longer term future for oil & gas is very uncertain.
Some say "peak oil" will happen as early as the mid-2020s and then collapse rapidly, others agree about the mid-2020s, but say it'll continue at that level for quite a while. Others say that peak oil won't be until the 2030s.
Some are saying there's going to be an oil shock, when the US shale bubble bursts, whereas others are saying that's bunk.
What's certain is that no one's quite sure!
Too rapid a switch to renewables, as well as being improbable (because of the lack of Worldwide infrastructure) will propel many oil producing states into economic failure. So the switch needs to be controlled and not just left to happen.
In that environment, who's going to risk investing in a costly new venture, in a remote part of the World, which could peter out almost as soon as it's started?
On the other hand, if you're sitting on a large quantity of high quality oil, with a lot more in the region, are you going to let it go just because you're not sure what's going to happen?
In a post-Brexit UK, one thing the Government won't want is to be unable to keep the lights on, so hedging their bets with a trivial (at least to the government) export credit investment would seem very wise.
My guess is that the combined funding from multiple sources (including UK Export Credit and possibly Israel) will be enough to get the SL project off the ground and pretty soon. It's not without risk, but it's very well planned and rehearsed (Catcher), which should produce enough revenue to pay everyone involved, from FIG, the FI population, PMO, RKH, Navitas, banks, other lenders, HMG's FI defence costs, etc., by when the future of oil and gas will be clearer. That will decide the extent to which the project continues to Isobel/Elaine, even Rhea, etc.
That's why Navitas is so important to the risk-sharing nature of how this project has become.
I think the talk now of billions of barrels production across the whole FI region is premature, but I do believe that SL will go ahead and then we'll all have (once again) to wait and see!