Member Info for Ovets

Stevo, just about everything.

Strangely, so many of the "Great British" things that underpin our society, which some people value over all that "foreign muck", are in fact Roman (i.e. Italian)!

Should have paid a bit more attention during history lessons.

Boris announced our new, post-Brexit strategic plans yesterday and it looks as though we're heading East.

That could have interesting implications for the FI's oil and gas.

Instead of it making the long journey by sea across the Atlantic, maybe it could find its way around Cape Horn to new markets in Asia, where oil and gas demand remains very high.

Perhaps the very remote location of the FI is not as badly placed as some say.

My understanding is that this is another reason why ECT route was followed, which is that the Italian State cannot string it out indefinitely, as they could if it had been pursued through the Italian Courts.
I agree with Marunam about it being a long time, but not half as long as it could have been if the Italian legal system had been in control.
And that's why Giacomo Aiello was whinging so much, 'coz they don't like having to abide by someone else's timetable, especially if it looks as though they might lose.

Funny how the Brits claim that so much of their infrastructure is "The best in the World", especially things like our legal system, when so much of it is based on the Roman system, just like the Italian!!

Murunam, it's because some states are renowned for their partial legal systems, with cases dragging on for ever and when a judgement is given against the government, the next administration refuses to honour any of them, that things like the ECT were established.
It's also why RKH took the ECT route and not the Italian Courts and now you can see why, with this geezer whinging like mad when it looks as though they've lost.
Had this been through the Italian Courts, as well as there having been dozens of changes of government while the case dragged on (like Jarndyce v. Jarndyce), the Italian Government would have kept moving the goal posts around as well.

Although this seems to have taken a long time, in the context of comparing it with the Italian legal system, it could be considered lightning fast!

Like a broken clock?

Brent remaining solid at the moment, helping HE to consolidate their plans for when PMO becomes HE, following what they announced at their October 2020 press conference.
Zama is a very valuable asset, but doesn't fit what they announced then as their preferred direction of operation.
As PoO rises and remains strong, a good time to "monetise" it, leaving the Mexicans to get on with it. HE would never have been "in control" of Zama and as far a we know, PMO didn't/doesn't have a team, comparable to the SL team, in place planning its development.
I think Zama is a very good example of the sort of project that isn't HE's "bag" and which they wouldn't want to get involved with.

However, if you acquire a portfolio of "declining" assets, even if they're profitable today, by definition they're "declining".
Assuming HE plans to be a growing business and not a "declining" business, there's a limited number of suitable such assets for HE to acquire, not just to maintain production numbers, but to grow the business in the way they indicated at the press conference/briefing.

That's why, if you listen to the whole of their press conference (not just the brief reference to SL), things are now looking better than ever for SL FID and sanction, which has been handed to them on a plate, virtually free.

When people post that developing new resources isn't HE's bag, so SL sanction by them is pretty unlikely, I think we should remind ourselves what was said at the Chrysaor/HE press conference last October.
It was said very definitely that the new HE would want to develop new resources (oil/gas fields) as long as they were in control.
That more-or-less rules out Zama, which we knew anyway, from what's repeatedly been said, except that it's even more certain now.
But it does rule-in SL, as that meets virtually all the criteria. HE aren't going to say a word until the takeover is complete, and probably not until the OM award outcome is known too, so the current silence is exactly what I'd have expected. It may not signal that SL FID & sanction are definite, but the silence certainly doesn't indicate that HE aren't interested.
In the mean time PoO continues to harden and no doubt lots of negotiating/haggling going on, which we can't hear.
PMO haven't disbanded their SL project team, licences extended by FIG, construction going on in the FI, etc.
Who says this is a dead duck?

That didn't answer Mogger's point though.

Tooth ache's an awful thing to have to bear, especially in a lockdown.
Why don't we have a whip-round and pay them to take it off our hands!

However, it's not just the reduction in fossil fuels that matters. COVID has shown that stopping virtually all flying and a lot of driving hasn't made as much difference as some might have expected.

You've got to add to the mix the sort of foods we eat, farming methods, not chopping down rain forests, etc., etc.
Substituting petrol/diesel powered vehicles with EVs will have a minimal effect (don't forget EVs need energy from somewhere), even if it makes Godfrey feel better when he polishes his Tesla.

A couple of years ago, when I floated the idea that RKH might get taken out long before first oil, I was mocked for suggesting such a ridiculous idea!
Now it seems quite a plausible option - Oh well!

Opinion on Kolanovic's opinion:
https://altnews.org/2021/02/12/jpmorgan-predicts-that-the-biggest-short-squeeze-yet-begins-next-month/

Cheers Marunam - of course, we have to be careful not to try and convince ourselves that what we'd like to happen WILL happen.

I'm quite good at genealogy, having made a number of early mistakes trying to make the evidence fit what I'd like the outcome to be.
Also map reading, where you try to convince yourself that the ground you see around you matches a point on the map - i.e. you're bloody lost!

Intellectually, this is much the same. You have to gather as much evidence as you can and then assemble the jigsaw without cheating.
In this case, not all the bits fit perfectly and some of the bits are missing, but we've still got a hell of a lot of bits over the years we've been collecting - a lot are nasty bits, but more are good bits.

For example, if PMO still has that team in place (albeit reduced in size), then why, if Harbour are going to bin the project?
Why the construction work going on right now in the FI?
Sifting through my bits and those found by others (e.g. Mogger's excellent finds) and it does point towards this going ahead, when Harbour has PMO under its belt and can actually make executive decisions that it can't do (or at least not publicly) now.
What they can do now, however, is understand every detail of what they're acquiring, get their ducks aligned for the big decisions, which will have to be made very soon.
Not sure what the likes of sick people like Ralph, Godfrey, Nigoil, Gozzie,etc. contribute, except for a lot of silly noise, but I'm just going to keep on collecting those bits, analysing them and making up my own mind.

Everyone involved could benefit from this going ahead, so I'm in no doubt that exactly this sort of thing is going on and probably has been for some time.

It's "just" a matter of getting the deal right, which we have seen isn't so easy these days, but as you say, minds are being/will be focussed.

Agreed, but I still think Harbour intend driving as hard a bargain as they can with whoever they can before letting on their intentions.
As you say "its worth very little in its present state", so capitalise on that - either drive down some costs, or walk away.

When buying/selling shares, punters will have to decide which they think is the most likely outcome.

Yes, but at the moment, money can cost nothing to borrow and the rewards could be astronomical, so now would seem a very good time to eat the ice cream.

If everyone's unsure about Harbour's intentions, that shows they're doing a very good job at not disclosing their hand.
If they're going to try and renegotiate anything (e.g. with the FIG, and/or with various service suppliers), as I've posted before, they're not going to shout "yippee, let's get on with SL" are they.

Don't take my word for it though - if Godfrey or Ralph were to confirm it, then it's likely to be true!!

I like reading Stevo12's comments (just realised his ID is the reverse of mine), but not sure I agree about Harbour only sticking to what it's done so far.
PMO does have experience beyond that, even if SL has been a balls-up for them, but they still have the knowledge and experience to get Harbour to a new level before it's too late and Harbour will have procured all that for next-to-nothing.

If Harbour are as sharp as most, including Stevo12 seem to think (and I would agree), then they're hardly going to let such as asset slip through their fingers while it still has serious value.

I mean, if you had a freezer full of yummy ice cream, knowing that indefinite power cuts are on their way, I think I'd eat the ice cream now, rather than watch it go off - wouldn't you?

Punstock, I understood that the PMO SL/FI team had been reduced in numbers, but is still very much there and alive.

Agreed Bootle and we've witnessed feeble management relating to this project for yonks.

Remember the Eirik Raude rig debacle? Much of the problem in taking Ocean Rig to task at the time was alleged to have been because of the contract, but you have to ask why such a poor contract was drawn-up, when such eye-watering sums were about to be spent, or should I say, poured into the ocean.

I suspect complacency was much of the problem. With sacks of gold under the bed, potential oil & gas reserves like that and PoO around $100, what could possibly go wrong?

It's a combination of complacency, with Moody and Co. thinking it would all just fall into their laps without much effort, combined with greed and a few other undesirable management traits, which when combined have brought us here.
I know there were/are many other factors, but surely those should have kept Moody & Co. on their toes, rather than sitting on their Rses.

Bloomin' miracle RKH is still solvent.

and don't forget the gas