Member Info for Ovets

You could be right, but I don't see Corbyn as PM ever.
Brexit was won very much on an old fashioned pro-British message.
After all the national cost of the Falklands War and what regaining them stood for and still does, I'm not sure I'd risk being the PM who hands the FI to the Argentineans, particularly if there are much needed post-Brexit, post-COVID resources there.

Actually Stevo, I think you're very wrong, except possibly for the means of transport, which is another reason to wait until she can get there in style.

The FI have so much national prestige associated with them that if SL is eventually sanctioned, there's going to be great excitement. It'll be like the culmination of a war that cost so many lives, demonstrated Britain's tenacity, won Margaret Thatcher an election that she would otherwise have lost, but then sort of fizzled-out, with an acrimonious relationship with Argentina.
All the news cameras will be there and LC certainly isn't going to miss out on such a photo-op, with her picture all over the World, as well as adorning the HE website and in the HBR Annual Report.

However, until that decision has been made, HBR are going to keep their cards close to their chest. As I've already said, TD showed them how NOT to do it, by making premature announcements, which didn't materialise (just like Nigoil has does).

Don't disagree.
Just saying that if I was in LC's shoes (not high heels hopefully), before committing HE to anything this big, I'd like to have a look, which would normally be fairly simple. Even if LC didn't go herself, I'd expect someone at Board level to go.
While there, have a natter with FIG, although by then any new tax concessions/arrangements should ideally have been sorted - bear in mind, this would be a complete change to the way of life in the FI. If you were managing the firm causing this, it might just be courteous to say "Hello" before kicking-off.

The NS tax benefits are awesome, but won't last for ever and HE have repeatedly said they're looking beyond that.

I'm also saying that this came virtually free with PMO deal, whereas any other comparable project that HE might consider won't.
Agreed it's not a "given", but it really has got a lot going for it, which HE are very wisely playing-down now. They've seen the palaver created when TD spoke too early about SL FID. Being as professional as they are, they'd be unwise to make the same mistakes about the same project.

" Harbour are not spoilt for choice" - eh?

Actually, I think you're right if you're considering assets they already own.
Why embark on a completely new project, perhaps from scratch, when you already own a BIG one, which is ready to go?

As for HE not being in a hurry, read my post below about Linda Cook going the FI.

" Harbour are not spoilt for choice" - eh?

Actually, I think you're right if you're considering assets they already own.
Why embark on a completely new project, perhaps from scratch, when you already own a BIG one, which is ready to go?

As for HE not being in a hurry, read my post below about Linda Cook going the FI.

"The worst scenario is if Harbour wrote off SL and walked".

If there's at least $4Bn (and probably MUCH more) stuff around the FI, would you "walk away" from a sum that large, which you already own?
That would seem a bit odd, unless there was some overriding reason to write it off, which I can't see at the moment.

Eff Me!
You're a jolly bunch.
If the inevitable is bankruptcy and then death (presumably in that order), you might as well get on with it now. I mean, why wait if you already know the answer?

I'm hanging on!

As I said, the only sensible thing to do is to wait and see, as we've done this one to death.

Thanks for the info - it occurred to me that, before sanctioning this lot, Linda Cook might wish to have a look at where it's all going to happen, have "a little chat" with the FIG and assess the other regional opportunities (e.g. Isobel/Elaine and beyond?) on site.

As well as HBR BoD having their hands pretty full at the moment, the circumstances aren't great right now for a jaunt across the World.

In the mean time, an opportunity to check all the numbers and maybe a last opportunity for that UKEF application?
Don't forget, TD made a number of public comments about the imminent SL FID announcement, which came to nothing.
In the end, it was being caught out by a global catastrophe with too much debt and no contingency, that did for PMO's ex-FD.
You can't blame HBR for wanting to check that everything really is as PMO have stated, before FID and sanction.
Any delay in making any decisions over SL is probably very justified.

So who can fly, using the MOD Airbridge?
Any civvies allowed?

Anyone know how easy/difficult it is to get to the FI and back at the moment?

What you seem determined to ignore is that regardless of whether or not RKH believe(d) they have/had a good case, the decision to pursue the claim wasn't theirs to make, but lawyers who are much more experienced than any of us and stand to have lost a packet if the claim fails.

Think we've exhausted this one.
As it's been said many times, we'll just have to wait and see.

Absolutely right, but equally, no one should take the overall ECT success/failure stats and simply apply them to the RKH/Italy claim either.

Bearing in mind the eye-watering sums already spent on getting SL to FEED (over $1Bn, or maybe even over £1Bn?), which HBR got bundled-in the PMO deal, virtually free, has anyone got an accurate estimate of what SL might be worth to them?

Forgetting all the other possible opportunities in the region for the time being, they have 60% of SL, assume PoO stays at around $65 and production costs are estimated at around $35/barrel (which could improve), then what would be the estimated bottom line figure, over 10 years, for HBR as things are now?
Probably forget de-commissioning costs, as they'd have to pay that wherever they are.

Very rough figures only, but indicative of what SL could mean to HBR, compared with other opportunities Worldwide, where the local political considerations may not be as attractive.

There really isn't much reason for HE to rush, especially if the pandemic continues World-wide for at least another year.
RKH's funds running low and recently extended licences running out again.
FIG and the islanders starting to wonder if the promised bonanza will ever happen., It'll have to be tourists, squid and sheep for ever, unless they budge on a few things before it's too late.

HE's statement about it taking time isn't an idle threat, although it must be geared towards making renegotiating anything negotiable more meaningful, while they make sure PMO's calculations are correct and while they wait to see what PoO does.

However, I reckon if FI is a region that really interests HE management, they may need to get things done while Boris remains PM, as someone else (even if Conservative) may not be quite as "colonial" as he is.
Had Corbyn been PM, things would now look very different.

i.e. Moody may have believed he had a good claim, but the decision to go ahead wasn't his.

You can imagine the different approaches:
Moody: We only have to pay if we win, the payout's going to be massive, so WTF - let's do it.

Lawyer: The statistical chances of success aren't good and we could be working on this one for years, which will cost us a bloody fortune if we lose.
That Moody thinks it's a free ride. The Italians are slippery fish, especially when it comes to legal matters, so we'd better make damned sure the claim is a good one before agreeing to doing it.

I think you'll agree that if the lawyers are any good (which apparently they are), they will have rewiewed this one to the Nth degree, particularly with claims statistics as they are.
Only rubbish lawyers would agree to a no-win-no-fee claim that stands little chance.

Of all the claim stats you refer to, how many were no-win-no-fee?

Thanks and I've seen that.

All I'm saying is that without knowing, in detail, the full facts of each claim, it's probably not a good idea to apply a percentage success rate to the RKH claim.
Statistics can be made to prove whatever you want.

OK Stevo, point taken.
Reckon a poetic post would be a pleasant change from much of the stuff here and while we wait for something to happen, love to see the pots!

As for "free", let's say it's short for "free of charge".