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RedSparrow, I'm not sure it's a case of "the Chinese just won't play ball", so much as "the Chinese CAN'T play ball".

They've expanded to the point that their ancient and slow rural economy has rushed into vast new cities, and they are on the verge of overtaking the US.
However, their population is ageing and despite efforts to increase population to support the old, the birth rate continues to fall, as the younger generations enjoy the promised rewards of a technologically driven society.

Their economy is too big to be supported by importing low-cost immigrant labour and in any case, who in their right mind would go to China, if you've got the West to go to and where would all those cheap-labour immigrants come from - Mars?

Basically, their demographic model is buggered, but one thing that might keep things from falling apart (at least for a while) is cheap energy. So they really can't join the Green Revolution at the moment, without the risk of serious civil unrest, as China disintegrates.
I have a feeling that the West's best defence against the threats from China is to watch the whole thing implode. In the mean time, they're going to need plenty of oil & gas, as will India (nearly 1.4 billion).

Absolutely LTT, but the basis of their entire business model is that oil & gas will be needed for longer than the sceptics say, so they acquire old, declining fields (picking-up some lovely tax breaks in the process), which the bigger oil companies want to abandon.
But those declining fields come with earlier de-commissioning costs and less (or no) opportunity for expansion.

HBR BoD have said that their greater future involves taking on something(s) much greater than the big oil companies' ageing cast-offs, as long as they (HBR) are "in control".

Well, that's what they've said in public, so I leave it to you to decide what to believe and what will happen, but with PoO currently over $71, things look pretty good for SL, especially if FIG give a bit of ground to get things started.
HBR would then have the option to pack up once SL is done (but everyone will have done very nicely from it), or if the PoO continues to remain strong, have a poke around Isobel, Elaine, etc., etc. (but those are for another day).

Yes, airliners are almost certainly leased, but there are loads of other assets "up for grabs" and the chosen enforcement jurisdiction is, I believe, the USA.

While Italy will do all it can to stall payment, once some select assets have been identified for seizure, depending on the magnitude of any award, in the end they'll probably decide it's easier just to cough-up.
However, once any award is announced, it won't be over by a long way.

think it's been binary for ages.

I know I've said it before, but BIG thanks to Glenrothes, not only for galvanising everyone and telling everyone what to do, but also for making it so easy.
If we don't get over the number, then it won't be for want of trying and surely the BoD must still be taking some notice.

We can have another bash, as we're well prepared, but I'd have thought we've already achieved the number required.
We can also contact Lough & Co individually, just to let them know how thoroughly peeed-off we are.
I agree, regarding those who just can't be bothered, but the World's full of them.

Absolutely, CTS!
If SL doesn't go ahead, and therefore with a clearly largely pointless FI defence presence, one has to wonder why NEW accommodation is being built for the FIG and for the military, where otherwise refurbishment of existing accommodation would probably be the best that could be expected/afforded under current fiscal circumstances.

Maybe someone's quoting lower $40s to help make the case for FIG to relent on their taxation?

No one can say for certain, but one of the FI's main sources of revenue, high quality squid (calamari), which is sold mainly to the EU and the Far East, is now under threat from climate change.
FIG are aware that they may not be able to rely on squid to support their economy indefinitely.

The effect of COVID on their growing tourist income (mainly cruise visitors) has been catastrophic and is now unlikely to recover until next year.

Any responsible government would realise that over-reliance on just one or two vulnerable sources of income is not sustainable, whereas oil and gas could provide the FI with a sovereign wealth fund greater (per capita) than Norway's.

They are very much aware of the possibilities of turning such a beautiful and natural area into a sort of South Atlantic Dubai (without the sunshine) and the influx of people, bringing with them all their accompanying problems.
But in the face of the realities of a changing World, FIG must realise that this is a once-in-eternity opportunity, so would be pretty reckless not to take it, before it's too late.

Thanks Cyan and yes, I realise that, but I repeat that after so much time and effort expended by the PMO team, considerable technology progress in this area, a collapse in production support service costs, we don't seem to have moved much, if anywhere from where we were after SL was discovered.

Do we have an accurate SL break even figure?
I seem to remember, when SL was discovered, that even then the talk was of around $40 to $45.

After all the time and effort expended by PMO, plus the crash in PoO putting the skids under exploration and production support service costs, the figure quoted now doesn't indicate much cost reduction progress.

"FIG need to smell the coffee"
Does that mean they have to go to Brazil to make decisions?

However, FIG have been pushing a number of bills through their parliament, which are specifically related to preparing for SL, so they would appear not to have abandoned the idea - yet!

Totally right - no one's going to move on RKH (if ever) until the OM result is known.

However, Linda did say that one of their key strategic business objectives is to "be in control". They'd certainly be in control if they took-over those licences.

Surfit, I agree.

Even USA GoM has hurricanes, so not many places really issue-free.

As I've already said, in our changing World, HMG probably regards the FI as an increasingly desirable asset and potential South Atlantic base, so probably prepared to guarantee the defence of the FI, especially if there's oil/gas revenue to help fund it.
I wonder why the military quarters on the FI are currently being upgraded - surely a bit of an extravagance if nothing's going to happen there?
If you ask me, be prepared for some sort of announcement/development in early 2022 in anticipation of the 40th anniversary of the FI War.

Regarding the SL/Zama decision (assuming they are the main options for HBR), nowhere in the World is 100% free of problems, for oil/gas production, such as high taxation, dodgy politics, corruption and piracy, adverse weather, etc., etc.

Of the two, HBR have to weigh-up whether Zama and its lower costs, but not "being in control", plus concerns about government interference, corruption, piracy in the region is more attractive than SL, with higher costs, remoteness and potentially hostile neighbours, etc.

If SL fits HBR's stated criteria better than Zama, then HBR aren't going to publish their concerns about Zama, as they'll be wanting to monetise it to the highest bidder.
So they're hardly going to say that they've decided not to go ahead with Zama because they don't trust the Mexicans, the area's dodgy and that they might find themselves dispossessed after committing to the project.

When selling your house, would you put in the ad that the area is prone to burglaries and flooding and the neighbours keep you awake all night with loud music and fighting?

Much, while I agree that in the end Italy would probably find it better to pay any award, that won't to stop them trying any trick to delay the inevitable, consuming time that RKH doesn't have.

Also, I believe the enforcement jurisdiction chosen is the USA, so it would be more likely to be Italian assets in the US than UK, but that's probably even better!

A jump for joy, as it's Friday (POETS Day)?

Precisely.
In the same way that Boris would never hand the FI over to Argentina, nor would any UK strategic vision for the FI be publicly discussed, so the public discussion will only be about the commercial prospects for oil/gas production.
That doesn't mean that hidden behind the scenes some influence being applied to achieve other objectives, if considered desirable, including what Ralph posted.
Bugger me, Ralph, are we agreeing again? Is this the start of a beautiful friendship? !!

Correction: The commercial imperative for HBR DOESN'T mean that other interests count for nothing.

Slight difference to what I posted earlier and may have confused some!

I reckon the UK and the US would be very pleased to have a foothold in that part of the World.
It might not be worth fighting a war to get hold of it, but if you've already got it and this time not abandoned it, leaving Argentina to believe that you've lost interest in it, then I'd want to hang on to it, irrespective of oil/gas reserves. But that costs money.
However, if you've got some oil/gas revenue, you could turn a somewhat remote dot on the map into a pretty valuable asset in a very uncertain World.

Totally agree with all that: profit is all that counts for HBR, but that doesn't mean that a post-Brexit Britain in an increasingly China-dominated World wouldn't want a decent foothold in that region.
The commercial imperative for HBR does mean that other interests count for nothing.