RE: i admit6 Apr 2022 19:57
Very good question Hullbist, which we all want to know.
Regarding SL, I believe genuine efforts are being made to reach a workable, adequately funded solution, before it really IS too late. Most thought it was already too late, especially by the time of COP26 and the associated hullabaloo (or even Hullibistloo) about the immediate need to ditch hydrocarbons if we're to survive.
But the unanticipated increased energy demand as the World started to emerge from COVID, quickly followed by the Russian energy embargo, has put the cat amongst those pigeons. It also looks as though the 'experts' had got their energy supply/demand sums wrong before all this happened, so we now find ourselves in completely uncharted waters, with inadequate and very expensive energy supplies. Sam had already arranged to go to the FI to haggle with the FIG about all sorts of things, including decommissioning the TDF, but all this kerfuffle has made everyone have to re-think. So the deadline, extended from 31/12/21 to 31/3/22 and now to end of April makes a lot of sense, because there's a lot of additional detail to understand and agree. We've criticised RKH in the past for poor contract negotiation, so perhaps we should allow those involved to do a better job this time, which takes time. For example, UKEF funding was off the table last year, but now, there is an argument for UKEF funding, perhaps to expedite SL's implementation.
As for OM, everyone was expecting the award announcement last year, but here we are in April 2022. I agree with those who say this indicates an award, with a dissenting arbitrator (probably the one representing Italy) dragging their feet, probably in the hope that RKH will go bust, thereby putting an end to it all. That ain't going to happen, but the delay is a damned frustrating.
So things will become clear when they become clear. My guess is not too long to wait for the HBR departure / Navitas agreement, but who knows when the OM award will be announced.