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"the reality is Argentina is not a military threat to FI"

I know that, DD77 - when Galtieri's boys popped over to the FI in 1982, they had just come to admire Stanley Cathedral's Spire.
So why is HMG spending £multi-million on the FI's defence? Maybe it's just for a bit of 'Overseas Training' for our lads?

Come on DD77, come back to the real World.

BTW, some posters here have been questioning having an Israeli partner in the form of Navitas. Now we wouldn't want to rely on the Israelis would we?
Well, as a matter of fact we are already, with Israel's Rafael Advanced Defence Systems providing a key part of the islnds' defences. And by the way DD77, that part of the contract is costing many £millions.

So, if "Argentina is not a military threat to FI", then why are we spending all that money - presumably the penguins are up to something?

"Not sure the relevance of comparing Argentina with Putin."

Have you forgotten about Leopoldo Galtieri? If so, you need to remind yourself PDQ.
Have you forgotten about Cristina Fernández de Kirchner? If so, you need to remind yourself PDQ.

I despair of those who forget their history (or perhaps never knew it) and suggest making generous gestures to thugs and bullies.
I DO agree that the World would be a better place if we learn to get along, so how about the Argentineans making one of your 'goodwill gestures' to kick-off this virtuous process?

First, if this affects RKH, then why does BOR seem exempt at the moment?

Also, paying Argentina? What? You mean a bit like paying Putin to be our friend? You must be kidding.
However, a more sensible proposal might be to engage with Argentina to exploit their off-shore oil/gas reserves. That would be a more normal and neighbourly action to take, with some potential for mutual benefit, but paying thugs a 'goodwill fee' has only one outcome and surely Ukraine must be a good enough example.

Everyone's entitled to an opinion, perhaps event to post juvenile rubbish, but we've been here before, time and time again, when, yes, commodity prices plummet because no one can afford to buy them, or the products they get turned into.

And, yes, some commodities go out of fashion, never to return to where they once were, replaced by something else and better.

But in this case, energy supply is fundamental to human civilisation, so we may see the price of oil and gas plummet because of a World recession/depression, but the bright boys/girls (unlike slithery hydrahead) are looking way ahead to the recovery, when the commodities needed are in short-supply.

As Hydrahead says, there could well be a World depression, but then all that investment and development into new technologies and people who can afford to buy the products just won't be there.
For example, we all knew that coal's days are numbered, but the current energy shortage had resulted in coal being, at least temporarily, in demand again - how much more will this be true for oil & gas, as economies try to recover amidst all the civil unrest, etc..?

Also, don't forget that some of this crisis is because everyone, simultaneously, is trying to avoid Russian oil & gas, but there just isn't enough alternative supply available.
Maybe Hydrahead's right, and there'll be a rush to convert everything in sight to renewables and nuclear, but in his forecast Depression, how will that work/be funded?

Finally, SL and any other FI fields, won't be in production for some time yet, so his prediction of, say, $30/barrel won't apply.

I take a pragmatic view, based on decades of experience to say that if SL and eventually the rest of the FI does go into production, it'll be on time to reap the rewards, when others (like hydrahead) chickened-out, missed the boat, contributing to an even greater World shortage.

FOGL investors don't count any more - you are prisoners of RKH!

Thanks p777 - there's an awful lot to grind through there and I don't think it begins to answer my point.

As usual with this one, I think we're just going to have to wait for the outcome. At least we now know it's on its way.
However, I repeat that all the signs indicate an award for RKH and potentially quite a big one.

Some have said that 'the maths' part of the tribunal process is the easy bit, so it could be just a matter of days before we know.

Before COVID, I would have agreed, but:
- the unprecedented fluctuations of PoO during the pandemic,
- the not fully anticipated demand, as economies began to recover and
- the Russia/Ukraine war uncertainties and issues, still not yet fully apparent,

mean that trying to calculate lost profits, over a prolonged period, when fossil fuels were supposed to be in steep decline cannot be easy.
How on earth does anyone calculate a credible figure, which all parties can agree under these circumstances?

It seems as though the tribunal is now closed to further argument, but did the open discussion period include any argument about quantum? If so, then the figure must already have been more-or-less agreed. If not, what happens if the tribunal award figure is completely unacceptable to one, or other party?

'Conceivably' yes, 'Realistically' no.

rhys, you have to take into consideration all the other factors, such as:
- the lengths the Italians have gone to to try and derail the process, including re-submitting a procedural objection that had already been rejected by the tribunal;
- the Italians virtually publicising that they had lost the claim;
- the Italians trying postpone the outcome, as RKH's funds dwindle
- K&S have already used the RKH as a top "case study" - such professionals wouldn't do that if they didn't have a good reason,
- etc., etc.

Thanks SpaceHoppa - at least we have one sane poster in the village!

Go back into your little hole Hydra Head.

"You have to ask who in their right mind would look to exit at this juncture and sell their shares?"

Godders!

Why are so many wasting so much time on this Godders bod?

He hasn't a clue, proves he hasn't a clue, even admits he hasn't a clue, but people seem drawn to him, like moths to a light and you know what happens to them.

Leave Godders to stew in his own juice - he has absolutely nothing worthwhile to contribute.

Might be a bit difficult to keep them 'undisclosed' when a large credit appears on RKH's balance sheet, unless Sam all-of-a-sudden disappears with the winnings!

FFS: 'weather c 0 c k'
Surely something can be done about this God forsaken automated moderation?

"That's why I think RKH's lawyers need to be trying to do a deal with them"

Not sure I agree - dealing with slippery Italians is the route to ruin. Stick with the official channel, which has UN backing and enforcement.
If the Italians come with bags of gold, then maybe take it, but even then, they're better than Penn & Teller and having taken their 'gold' in settlement, once they've gone, you might find the bags are full of bricks.
Anyway, this is 'The Italian State', which changes administration like the direction of a weather****.
You agree your settlement terms with the incumbents, who string thing out for ever, the Government then changes, who say: "Sorry mate, you agreed that with our predecessors, a load of bastards who weren't to be trusted. Would you like to start talking to us about it?".

So back to your: "That's why I think RKH's lawyers need to be trying to do a deal with them" - I don't think so.

Not sure anyone has mentioned a 'QUICK' settlement - it's the quantum that everyone has been discussing, especially DEM's excellent recent post.

However, interest will accrue and RKH's lawyers will have the authority to enforce any award in the US, or RKH might choose to sell the award debt for someone else to enforce.
OK, it probably will take a while, but the Italians will have to pay-up in the end (assuming an award, of course).

Mirasol - WRONG.

I've had plenty of dealings with them, which is why I made that assessment.

He must have been working weekend overtime, when he made his post at 8:25 yesterday morning.
Funny how he can't manage to make his points in an adult fashion.

I'd add: I'm sure the Italians would prefer not to 'lose' the arbitration process.
However, if the award is as little as $50M (or £50M), which to RKH is significant, but to them, almost loose change, I'd have expected them to have agreed and paid-up pretty quickly before anyone changes their mind, especially with PoO at over $100.

That they are making things so drawn-out and laborious indicates the award is likely to be significantly higher, giving some reason for them to string things out and try to derail the process, and/or see RKH go bust first.

Regarding the Italian repeated attempts at putting spanners in the works, I would remind everyone of when RKH's lawyers approached the tribunal to ask: "Are we nearly there?". You may recall that they were told in no uncertain manner not to pester the tribunal and if they did it again, there would be consequences.
But the Italians have been far more of a pain than just asking how things are progressing. The tribunal presumably must appear to have been fair to all sides, so the Italians don't appear to have received the *******ing that RKH's lawyers did for doing far less. Now, I wonder why that is. I take it as a signal that RKH is likely to have won and as DEM suggests, it's likely to be significant.

Not counting any chickens, but the signs look positive - it's just the delay that is so frustrating.