Member Info for OsakiSushi

Hi there, Something getting really interesting now as my reading of the charts suggests a hard push upward sometime within the next week.

I'm expecting a retrace to allow such to happen and suspect the current ceiling (today, Frid) to be around 57p before the price slackens to 49p before a surge to the high 70's/low 80's. Blooming hard drawing a feasable FIB on RBS given the last years performance. My worry is that a load of folk think RBS will do a LLOY or BARC quickly, simply because they are looking at the movements in value rather than actual %ge change. RBS is actually doing better than BARC in recent %ge growth though folk are seeing BARC up by 50p within a week whereas the best RBS could do was 8p. It does look like the results due today are now factored in and there's little movement (which will stick) possible. Oddly, Barc looks to be the poorest performing recovery stock from 1st July amongst the 3 high st banks. If RBS touches 57p tomorrow, Elvis will leave the building. For a few days. I've checked how the banks responded in the week following their Aug figures over the last 5 years and RSI 5 theory works well. Not sure about Barc but very interested in Lloy tnen RBS for an August bounce.

Dunno if you're in RBS. If you are, take a look at the %ge increase achieved by Barcs, LLoy, and RBS since July 1st to close today. A lot of folk are expecting a massive surge in RBS's SP but I'm not too confident of such having looked at the actual percentages. As for selling pressure on EME, imagine how I feel babysitting VIY ! Every other day, the share trades below the midprice due to the daft range and it achieves 87% sells or 87% buys. Utterly mad.

Still think it won't break upwards till next week. However, it looks like the intraday retrace was simply to allow the price to advance by another 0.25 in the upper range. Bit hard to tell as the volumes are so thin but the price oscillator is still; above 0.

RSI 5 <30 . Bit of an oops there! In English, RSI, Period 5, One year View, Daily timeframe. Buy when below 30 and trending UP on SMA 50 or look at previous RSI dips and confirm the company isn't about to go down the loo. But the RSI period does need adjusted in accordance with the volumes so the 5 can become a 6 or a 4 to get a sane read. And the trend cannot be ignored, Quite fascinating watching RSI's intraday. For a SP to go DOWN, the share price must first blip up. And for an SP to go up, it must first blip down. LGEN is an easy one to try that on with a 1 minute window, intraday between 8am and 9am or 10.30 and 11am.

Charting is an odd science. I thought I was good until about two weeks ago when something clicked and I became superb. The last two weeks I've spent trying to figure out why I was so stupid as to think I was superb. However...people still buy the Sun for page three (I assume it still has such-my wife buys it for the crossword on the 12 min ferry trip across to the mainland then bins it before I get to read it...) and charting predicts how people move in a given situation, essentially the herd instinct. And until the Sun stops having a page three, I suspect charting will remain viable. (Gosh, that's deep <grin>) Moosh's comments regarding RSI 5 are pretty valid to play safe with. I've run numerous 7 month studies on the buy at RSI 5 >30 and sell above RSI 5 >70 play and was completely shocked by the result. Substantially better than intraday trading. Why do I need so little sleep? And why do Bloomberg put a sodding weather report on two minutes before 8am open.

From the daily chart posit, looks like TAN are about to have a couple of days in the sun. May be worth keeping an eye on tomorrow (Thur)

Ho hum, och well. Gosh

I've got a theory with regard chosing exit points intraday. Firstly, choose the high achieved between 8am and 8.30am. 'Tune' RSI to match it so the higher end of the RSI curve is just below 100. With LLOY today, RSI 6 fitted. Then choose the exit later in the day - assuming it's a rising market. Thanks for the replies. I keep feeling folk are seeing signals I don't know exist. So much so I avoided selling RBS at 50.2 only to watch it retrace. Ho hum. Moosh - Doritos & low fat grated cheese microwaved. Takes 50 seconds to ding and best of all, doesn't have chicken in it.

Can anyone give me some advice on exit points as I keep getting it wrong - quite badly today with LLOY as I dumped at 93p. comfortably above my target of 91 and confident it wouldn't go higher. Then it went to 97.8. I've done similar in the last week with XTA, Barc, AV. and Lgen. Thanks

REX and QQ are of interest to me. We're doing a full trawl just now of the FtSE250 so will report findings tonight. RBS is 'probably' a safe short termer given the Lloyds behaviour today BUT there's a risk everything is now factored in as it's ridden higher on the back of Barcs and Lloy this week. However, it looks like a FIB range of 44 to 57 is it's current playground. I meant to enter HMV on Friday but am not happy with their activities. Oh, UU. is still looking valid.

Copied and pasted the below from Regular Chat (it was my post). Moosh and I have been bantering about RSI indicators and LGEN seems fairly sane at present. Obviously, the value of your investment can go straight up your nose and out your rectum...H&S regs satisfied.... "Quite an odd thing today where the media drove the sp down rather than logic. From a techie perspective, I viewed 58p as a potential bottom last week and was waiting for it but missed the momentary dip to 57p today, catching a 60p buy-in. Whilst it could still track downward, I'm liking the underlying trend which made my buy seem safe. We're at - or very close to - the bottom of a cycle (in my opinion) which has 66p at the top end. Which was why I bought back in. However, given my track record plotting LGEN, the 66p will be quite wrong and it'll probably hit 2 quid... <sickly grin - screwed up last week by deciding the potential high was 62.9. An oops sell moment.>"

Quite an odd thing today where the media drove the sp down rather than any logic. From a techie perspective, I viewed 58p as a potential bottom last week and was waiting for it but missed the momentary dip today, catching a 60p buy-in. Whilst it could still track downward, I'm liking the underlying trend which made my buy seem safe. We're at the bottom of a cycle (in my opinion) which has 66p at the top end. Which was why I bought back in. However, given my track record plotting LGEN, the 66p will be quite wrong and it'll probably hit 2 quid... <sickly grin - screwed up last week by deciding the potential high was 62.9. An oops moment.>

Oh, I do play the larger ones - AU., XTA, BA. (this week) and most of the financials. But we've turned this into a 'family' business and play £500 sums in the pennies and larger numbers in the blues. At this point in time, we're running 22 trades.

I feel stupid because when I was starting out last year with my 'practice' funds, I was suckered by several ongoing ramps thinking a posters posting numbers equated to knowledge. Was trapped in several for some time as a result and vowed to watch for an obvious ramp this year and quietly take advantage. Fear of being trapped with largers sums kept me clear which was perhaps silly as I've seen these things can finish somewhat abruptly. (though ACTA was different as the ramp gang remained in place)

Looks like a 10 minute window for intraday movements. The underlying still seems to be up but I can't see anything shifting it unless someone trades a decent volume.

Yes, I really think it is from the current chart posit. Many thanks for pointing it out.

Actually took the time today to read about RSI and discovered something reassuring. I've been guaging share performance with looking at the RSI strength in conjunction as to when the SP was last 'x' with RSI at 70. Using a rule of thumb, we see for instance that on VIY, the SP was 5.3, 5.6, 6, and currently it is still 6 with the RSI below 70. A climbing market then. Then we look at BA. which had a SP of 321 with RSI @70 , then SP of 312 with RSI @ 70 (which triggered my buy). Thus, I am in a position of having caught a falling knife and worrying as the two movements were only days apart. Oops. Conversely, QQ. looks safer as the RSI SP figures look fairly flat. Or in English, I've tied up 5k with BA. but prob not with QQ. Had I paid attention to the slower stoch, I would have avoided BA. This week will show how silly I've been - or how paranoid I am. Thanks for your comments on VIY. As you'll guess, I'm happier tonight. Good luck this week.

RSI 5 trading can only be successful when used in conjunction with OBV trends - or slow stoch. Did a study through 07 and 08 and there are rather a few traps unless one carefully checks the underlying trend. Not too sure about using Weekly in conjunction with a daily view unless you only use it to view the lower level strength but even then... On my list from this afternoon, I double underlined DDT for some reason.

I'd really appreciate if you could do an Ichi on VIY and give me your take. Our reading is steady bullish but... There's something I don't like about the chart movements recently which concerns me a wee bit. Most folk are taking the 'it's being held back' viewpoint and I'm coming around to quite a different thought, simply due to the timeframes, the type of news, and the lack of solid numbers. Every single day recently, there has been a late reported sale for 1 mill shares (or so) and intraday volumes are being treated as sales (below midprice) until the approach of close when real buy/sale price moves up and the late reported trade sneaks in. Something is not smelling right. Many thanks