Member Info for onsolidground

Again.

The share that just keeps giving and giving.

Best trading share on the market.

Thanks for that Novice82 and I remembered your post hence why I asked for a link.

Yes, same recurring theme again and promulgated by the same individual and without any factual backing.

Personally if I was OVMK and I was aware of those key numbers, Peel Hunt since and SoP valuations then I'd be purchasing again. Probably lend out a few to then get a cheaper entry. Nobody ever gets to know unless they cross the 3% RNS threshold or unless another bid scenario arises and everyone has to declare their holdings.

Link please !!

Or more recently take the recent Peel Hunt as a guide. Independent assessment by 3 industry professionals and a 79 page accompanying report.

"Peel Hunt used multiple analysts to compile the review, from Tech to Consumer Brands - recognising THG has 3 large, global businesses with different specialisms:

1. a very well-invested, Tech, Media & Logistics platform, with c4,000 staff globally

2. the world’s No1 Sports Nutrition brand Myprotein

3. one of the world’s major Beauty groups, encompassing Brands, Retail & Manufacturing

Many banks write research on THG, but it's rare multiple analysts with different specialisms come together like this. But for THG, it's the only way to ensure a true understanding of our group.

Here are some key conclusions from report:

✔ THG & the strategy makes sense

✔ THG is wildly undervalued on the LSE

✔ At 141p, well over 2x today's share price, THG would still be at a 50% discount to global peers

✔ THG shares should be worth 272p within 2 years

✔ As Ingenuity Sales reach £1.2bn (c£700m today), THG shares are worth 383p. If Ingenuity EBITDA margins also reach 15% (low single digit today), the shares are worth 452p"

Something gives big time (the share price) on publication of any demerger circular or any take private Private Equity offer for THG Ingenuity or the whole group.

Keep the postings coming Crafty. Your in depth knowledge of THG backed by factual links bothers some hence they try to shoot the messenger. Just post your posts and don't get drawn into paid per reply postings.

At these levels holding THG is totally derisked for each of the 3 divisions alone are worth more individually than the share price and market cap so happy to hold and keep accumulating at staged entry points on the notice of multi-bagger ESCC and Demerger update RNS.

Hope we see north of what was touted as the £1.2 Billion valuation for THG Ingenuity alone at the time of the Apollo bid 18 months ago. Now trending at record revenues and has been steadily adding notable custom in recent months. Holland and Barrett, Premier Foods Fuel 10k, Frasers Group and most recently The Range / Wilko.

"Some interesting information that came out of the negotiations was that in the eyes of Apollo the Ingenuity division alone merited a valuation in excess of GBP1.2 billion. According to this keen buyer, this business unit, which we’re least able to value accurately and for the sake of convenience put at zero in our calculations, represents almost the whole current market value of the company."

https://www.ovmk.nl/storage/downloads/quarterly-report-q2-2023.pdf

And the present market cap for the whole group is...... £678 Million

https://www.ovmk.nl/storage/downloads/quarterly-report-q2-2023.pdf

Will be interesting to see how the share price plays out today.

Had thought REVB might have wished to distance themselves from Mr Minto given threatened legal actions and potential FCA sanction.

But I suppose his companies monies are as good as anyone elses.

Interesting news on Noble Helium dual listing in Aim.

It's had more raises than a Hovis Bread factory so I suspect that's what's probably behind the dual listing. That plus perhaps more interest in Helium stocks per se.

Ephemeral, I personally don't think you are quite grasping this.

Ingenuity appointed its own Chairman on 12/02/24 - Alistair Crane

https://www.thg.com/news/entrepreneur-alistair-crane-becomes-new-ingenuity-chairman

It also has its own CEO - Richard Ward.

https://www.prolificnorth.co.uk/news/thg-commerce-backs-new-nutrition-range-launch/

So it's good to go as it is and MM will not be at the helm. (What I do suspect though is that he will fully rollover into any new structure and lighten his workload).

The demerger is also about fully unlocking the true value of THG Ingenuity and then as a follow on THG Beauty and THG Nutrition also as Sum of Parts and then it's into the FTSE ESCC category and FTSE 250 with trackers buying in. So no RI. It'll either be taken private by Private Equity or separately listed with its own standalone funding and banking.

If THG wished they already have enough cash on the balance sheet to fully fund Ingenuity through to Free cash flow (£150M) but not doing much else. But by giving it full independence in whatever structure and separately financed that leaves 2 profitable businesses, saves annual Ingenuity Capex and any sale proceeds can be used for the likes of share buy backs, dividends and further purchases...

Further update hopefully on or around the 17th October with Q3 update unless anything leaks prior imvho

You do all know Frasers Group presently have a planning application lodged with Rugby Borough Council for new warehousing on a 275 acre project near Ansty on the M6. One that's on green belt land and is stoking up a lot of local resentment and opposition. Will need to gain approval and then needs to be fully built. Got to be talking a good few years.

Might they alternatively be tempted by THG Ingenuity, acquiring state of the art technology and injecting themselves into the infrastructure as one very large whale. Some were asking earlier in the last few days who might be interested over and above Private Equity. Private Equity my favourite but an additional suggestion might be Frasers Group.

https://saveanstygreenbelt.com/

Alistair Crane is a good example of bringing somebody more experienced into the organisation.

No doubt about it his Chairman of Ingenuity position was created for a purpose and in only the few months he's been in post we have seen Holland and Barrett, Frasers Group and now The Range onboard and also with existing clients adding more of a footprint on the platform. An improving Q3 and then its into the Golden Quarter with Black Friday to Cyber Monday and key Festive Trading and January Sales. So the close to £1 Billion revenues MM mentions twice in the webcast might not be too far off. Has he added value. Yes certainly and we should not be so myopic as there are clearly other industry players out there with far more experience, relevant skill set and importantly other wider contacts.

Last MyProtein rebrand 2018. Latest 2023, when Myprotein was recording record revenues.

How many times has the Mars Bar, a Walkers crisp packet or Kellogs Cornflakes box changed their wrapper or packaging in the last 5 years?

So was there ever any real need changing what was working well? Could it not have been better done in stages and with test marketing of the rebrand in say one geography to prove its merits then if it works move to another geography, then repeat. repeat. Whose decision was behind it? Is the Nutrition CEO on borrowed time?

Hopefully the worst is now behind it and coming out the other side of the rebrand with a return to growth. Beauty and Ingenuity also picking up some of the slack.

Yorek, Ingenuity will go (and for good money) and MM will rollover into any new structure. Perhaps skimming some money off along the way for his early retirement pot.

Ingenuity is going or Moulding himself will be gone by March (stepping down for health reasons imho).

Either, resulting in a very healthy premium hence my disciplined accumulation.

Not seen anything Cong. Anything they write for their clients is normally behind a paywall.

It's just something that keeps popping into my mind . Yes its at record revenues and that we know, but not once but twice minimum in the Conference call Matt Moulding mentioned that Ingenuity would be pushing close to £1 Billion sales by year end.

""Peel Hunt used multiple analysts to compile the review, from Tech to Consumer Brands - recognising THG has 3 large, global businesses with different specialisms:

1. a very well-invested, Tech, Media & Logistics platform, with c4,000 staff globally

2. the world’s No1 Sports Nutrition brand Myprotein

3. one of the world’s major Beauty groups, encompassing Brands, Retail & Manufacturing

Many banks write research on THG, but it's rare multiple analysts with different specialisms come together like this. But for THG, it's the only way to ensure a true understanding of our group.

Here are some key conclusions from report:

✔ THG & the strategy makes sense

✔ THG is wildly undervalued on the LSE

✔ At 141p, well over 2x today's share price, THG would still be at a 50% discount to global peers

✔ THG shares should be worth 272p within 2 years

✔ As Ingenuity Sales reach £1.2bn (c£700m today), THG shares are worth 383p. If Ingenuity EBITDA margins also reach 15% (low single digit today), the shares are worth 452p"

And it also has to be said Rock8 that we are commenting on H1 results to end June and they also shared this with the interims.

"Momentum in Nutrition is especially pleasing, with an expected return to revenue growth in September, providing a strong platform for both peak trading and the year ahead."

So much information also floating around though and pointing to the value of Ingenuity itself and on the Sum of Parts being far far more than the current sp, Applied Nutrition just being one.

Forgot to add at the end.

Quite happy for the shorts to keep loading up and lowering the share price and to let me buy cheaper, as I'd be very surprised if we don't get a Demerger update on or around the 17th of October which was the date of last years Q3 update.

Effectively a month from the For Sale Boards publicly having gone up and it will have given the Directors time to assess suggested structures, proposals and or any offers. Perhaps a risky time to be short imho.

Yiab

"As for the comms, it is beyond stupid for MM to face up investor calls without a tighter script of what he is or isn’t prepared to say, and control the message better."

The first thing you do with these meetings is introduce everyone around the table and explain their area of expertise. In fact involve them with parts of the presentation. So I'm Matt Moudling CEO and I'm primarily responsible for group performance, the rebrand and strategy in lieu of TGL being absent. To my right is Damian Sanders, CFO. Damien was also involved in the seperation project when with Deloitte and has the THG lead in the demerger project. he'll run through the H1 financials and is available to answer questions as best he can on the demerger. To my left is Steve Whitehead - Group Operations Director he is responsible for....

In that way the analysts at Q+A know who to address their questions to and they then say for instance I've got 3 questions the first one is probably for you Matt on the Rebrand? The second is probably for Damian Sanders on the Demerger....etc.

All of those other individuals were sat there with notepads and pens poised writing down the questions in preparation to answer, yet what did we get - a one man band show with no pen and paper, interjecting when 5 questions were rolled into one at the start to get them asked one at a time. No pen or paper himself, everything off the cuff and waffly and I'll tell you how embarrassing it got. He was asked a question by Monique Pollard which Crafty has posted up earlier and unless my ears deceived me he actually answered her back referring to her as Molly !!!

If you don't know how these get structured get onto BRR media and watch a few, for example the SFOR results update a few days later.

This update was opened by Sir Martin Sorrell * the Chairman * who detailed the agenda and breakdown of proceedings and it rotated between key staff for their input before returning to him for closing remarks. Usual pre-hit to the share price prior, mediocre results as expected but they clawed 5% to 6% of any losses back during the presentation. Came across as professional and in fact he Sir Martin Sorrell was in LA whilst the rest of his staff were in London.

Basics really and if someone's Expresso intake has gone up considerably last week then they need to be seeking feedback and conducting some reflective practice. Although the share price reaction is probably feedback enough.

Pluses though out of it.

1. Massive For Sale Board hoisted over Ingenuity with lots of publicity.

2. More pressure on the CEO to get the deal done.

3. Much cheaper buy in price, but in the knowledge of THG Ingenuity previous valuations and Sum of Parts of all 3 divisions.

Imvho.

You seem to be having a marish evening tonight Pmh amidst a raft of valuations from multiple different sources both for Ingenuity and for THG whole.

Google #Nothanks + Linkedin + Matt Moulding and you'll get your answer. That's unless of course you are calling Mt Moulding a liar which of course is defamation.

I

Are you calling him a liar?

Thanks for posting and it confirms the 200p - 250p that I knew I had seen.

Worth just highlighting this part as its relevant.

"Some interesting information that came out of the negotiations was that in the eyes of Apollo the Ingenuity division alone merited a valuation in excess of GBP1.2 billion. According to this keen buyer, this business unit, which we’re least able to value accurately and for the sake of convenience put at zero in our calculations, represents almost the whole current market value of the company."

Pmh - The 170p Bid price is on record as is the fact it "significantly undervalued" THG. As are the comments on how much Apollo valued Ingenuity at.

You can also add in numerous other commentaries - Liberum in 2023 gave a Sum of Parts valuation of 220p at the time of the Apollo bid.

Then you have Peel Hunt's more recent 79 page long independent valuation. Keypoints listed and the full report is not in the public domain

""Peel Hunt used multiple analysts to compile the review, from Tech to Consumer Brands - recognising THG has 3 large, global businesses with different specialisms:

1. a very well-invested, Tech, Media & Logistics platform, with c4,000 staff globally

2. the world’s No1 Sports Nutrition brand Myprotein

3. one of the world’s major Beauty groups, encompassing Brands, Retail & Manufacturing

Many banks write research on THG, but it's rare multiple analysts with different specialisms come together like this. But for THG, it's the only way to ensure a true understanding of our group.

Here are some key conclusions from report:

✔ THG & the strategy makes sense

✔ THG is wildly undervalued on the LSE

✔ At 141p, well over 2x today's share price, THG would still be at a 50% discount to global peers

✔ THG shares should be worth 272p within 2 years

✔ As Ingenuity Sales reach £1.2bn (c£700m today), THG shares are worth 383p. If Ingenuity EBITDA margins also reach 15% (low single digit today), the shares are worth 452p"

Fortunately it will be these that are handed over for any due diligence as opposed to your posting history.