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Forgot to add the OVMK link that 1pencil kindly previously provided. Puts the Apollo bid in the 200p to 250p regions and THG Ingenuity back then with a £1.2 Billion price they were seemingly prepared to pay.

https://www.ovmk.nl/storage/downloads/quarterly-report-q2-2023.pdf

Yiab I don't think they would be the first, as the level of the THG Ingenuity constituent of Apollo's bid and the Peel Hunt report are already out there.

The Softbank side of the scales for me is out (£4Billion) but somewhere in between is not.

Apollo according to OVMK offered £1.2 Bill. So add a bit for the New Jersey warehouse going online since, plus contract wins since + perhaps a Capex contribution) But tie it with the opportunity to rollover.

Then how much for the other £2 Billion plus revenue and profitable businesses of Beauty and Nutrition.

In one sense I want the share price to rise for to nearer the mid ground as I know its so, so undervalued that the present share price doesn't even value any one of the three businesses themselves, let alone for all 3. But the other side of me doesn't want it to rise too fast too quickly for I actually want the share price to force out a Circular and Sale. That is where the REAL profits will come from.

I'm also half tempted if it stays say sub 65p to 70p to just lock it up leave it and let things progress as they are projected and look back in come April time. Ingenuity gone, Sum of Parts then the focus, ESCC move up and FTSE250 with trackers buying in. At some point along the way the City gets it big tome and clicks in.

Decent article but devoid of the X Multiple valuations we all know and there was the chance to elaborate on those off the back of the only one individual who was happy to be named, when they mentioned this being a classic Sum of Parts situation. Opportunity missed.

That said I also think it also paints the picture that MM would like to stay the course and see through Ingenuity and see it through to fruition (hence the wish for a roll over option), but that one camp of two sets of shareholders has rightfully grown impatient with the cash drain and share price direction. Friends + family + colleagues and employees I also btw have in that camp.

So things had to change, and they have.

Very good offer but importantly with the ability for existing shareholders to rollover and it's sold.

Odds on Apollo Crafty I think are perhaps shorter given previous due diligence done. That plus the Evri link. Don't also forget to quote some odds on Frasers Group and Mike Ashley.

Excellent results to be fair.

Let it sink in and perhaps it sees 180p again in the short

Oh there was buying up to 54.25p mucker. Then if you don't want the price to take off then you drop off for a bit.

I think what was more compelling though was that there was hardly any selling.

Would you be selling any with ready access to a wealth of valuations. Some highly conservative.

170p for THG whole in the Belerion bid.

Circa 65p "significantly undervalued" THG Ingenuity alone at the time of the Apollo Bid.

200p - 250p mentioned as the Apollo bid for THG whole by OVMK.

£1.2 Billion offered for THG Ingenuity alone by Apollo (OVMK)

220p sum of parts Liberum

Then Peel Hunt

" ✔ THG is wildly undervalued on the LSE

✔ At 141p, well over 2x today's share price, THG would still be at a 50% discount to global peers

✔ THG shares should be worth 272p within 2 years

✔ As Ingenuity Sales reach £1.2bn (c£700m today), THG shares are worth 383p. If Ingenuity EBITDA margins also reach 15% (low single digit today), the shares are worth 452p"

Dyor and have a good evening.

Just two opposing views Mattyboy and we'll agree to differ. Nothing wrong with that.

Perhaps my view though hinges from the fact Kelso bought in then released a sequential number of RNS and Linkedin posts that highlighted the value of THG Nutrition and the value of the company on a Sum of Parts basis (whilst it has to be said THG released not a lot and the media weren't onside either).

Then about 4 months after their buy in up pops news the Apollo Bid and MM has said there have been two approaches since for Nutrition.

I care not how we get to what is coming but I welcome their efforts. They may not be the biggest shareholders but they are prepared to challenge and John Goold their CEO is highly regarded and has vast experience of exactly what is needed (Private Equity and growing companies), as is Nigel Wray the Kelso Chairman (Corporate Legal background)

We've been here before when everybody previously slated them off at 2.2p. It's now mid price 3.8p so tbf I'm not really bothered either way at any difference of opinion as you balance them and make your own mind up.

I'm not sure what your angle against Kelso is moniman, probably that you sold out too early, but with the dismal share price it is they that slowly but surely are driving the agenda as MM hasn't been delivering the "significant undervalue" in the share price post any bids. Now we are seeing the splits that they were after, albeit on Ingenuity as opposed to Nutrition and you also know that from the conference call that buybacks and dividends were also mentioned. Note also the continual reference to being in continual discussion and dialogue with their shareholders in making a decision. Surprise, surprise Kelso also asked them to consult with all their shareholders regarding the strategy and direction of the company. Maybe reluctance on his part initially but as he is now saying "I think we are all aligned" Some may argue the only one that wasn't was he.

He fears them and he's vulnerable when the share price is low for they have contacts and connections with many Private Equity firms having been involved with them previously. Zeus, Elliott, Actis ...

How you getting on with your reply over there by the way?

And yes Crafty the BoD are "Insiders" from the minute the Demerger RNS hit the market.

Well if that is the case Goldenfoot then hopefully it puts the bit between MM and Co's teeth to get a deal over the line at or close to full market value (and we know the rough numbers) and then prove all those critics and shorters wrong.

We all know that he isn't averse either to dropping news out the blue to wrongfoot any supposed short attacks.

Something tangible on progress on or around the 17th October might go some way perhaps.

Isn't it also strange how within minutes of the H1 Update the analysts were already punting out their views, many before even the Conference call had even started. Then a mass frenzy of quick media concentrating on lower guidance and Nutrition negatives and imho failing to perhaps balance on the fact Nutrition was back into growth and the vast actual potential of the combined 2 RNS's. Result: Sunken share price.

Then the real surprising bit for me, we get treated over the weekend and Monday - to Absolutely Nothing. Not even a bit of commentary or analysis on who might emerge as potential suitors or indeed how undervalued the Group is on a Sum of Parts basis. That you would think is the obvious next step and lets be totally frank there is simply so much information out there that you have to be purposefully blind not to see it. So much so that the bulletin board actually does it instead.

So I ask myself if I'm being a little premature on this or is it almost been akin to the previously touted pondscumesq mentality of old?

Plus side though is that inadvertently it did create massive instant publicity that THG Ingenuity is up for sale so I'll happily wait for the circular to drop. Then it will be interesting to see how quickly the journo's and financial press change their tune.

Presumably quite readily scalable though OohAhh. Collection and pick points, online, depots, distribution hubs and delivery drivers already established all over the country. Just requiring more delivery drivers and potentially capacity increases to match any increase in scale.

Would just be a case of how much ambition and extra business Apollo wanted and whether they would wish to build it into an Amazon challenger. Lets face it there is also lots of middle ground out there also in terms of the business that for instance Ingenuity sacrificed and in essence gave away in pursuit of those elusive higher value clients. (Another poor strat decision by us imho). There is also lots of 3rd party seller business out there and up for grabs. It would make perfect sense given the previous Apollo interest.

The question for me if they were to buy Ingenuity knowing how Apollos funding could integrate and further grow the business and their access to vast cash pools whether or not it would actually be worth staying the course and rolling over into any new entity.

I'm just surprised how cheap TLW and the oil price is given the escalation between Israel and Lebanon (pagers, walkie talkies, key commanders taken out and mass rocket attacks yesterday) Iran hovering in the background, the US now sending more troops and hardware to the Middle East and the pure powder keg potential of the region.

*headhunted Coty and Holland and Barrett Execs to advise on a bid."

My thoughts exactly Yorek and I pointed out that they just bought Evri in July earlier today. Simple vertical integration. Was surprised tbf we ourselves didn't bid for either Evri or Yodel as either would have been a logical bolt on.

Apollo paid £2.7 Billion for Evri and right now they must be thinking its Christmas what with Ingenuity just put up for sale and with our market cap sat at a ridiculous £695M.

They spent good money on their last approach for THG whole and even headhunted City and Holland and Barrett Execs to advise on a bid.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2023/05/apollo-coty-ceo-thg/

Kbyk,

There's no point throwing shares away if you are not getting any back in return at a lower price.

There is an overwhelming body of evidence categorically showing THG is MASSIVELY undervalued.

1. The Belerion / King Street Bid was declined as "significantly undervaluing" THG. Bid price made public was 170p.

2. # NoThanks Linkedin post by MM just after the Apollo Bid was declined stating Apollo valued THG Ingenuity at significantly more than the share price was the day immediately prior to their Bids becoming public knowledge (Was circa 65p just prior) Add what you wish for THG Nutrition and THG Beauty and any improvement in fortunes since and @Record revenues.

3. OVMK's quarterly update just after the Apollo bids were declined indicating their Bid was somewhere in the region of 200p-250p and that the eager bidder valued THG Ingenuity at £1.2 Billion pounds.

4. Liberum pointing to a Sum of Parts valuation at the time of the Apollo bid of 220p

5. More recently the independently commissioned Peel Hunt Report. Snippets4U

" ✔ THG is wildly undervalued on the LSE

✔ At 141p, well over 2x today's share price, THG would still be at a 50% discount to global peers

✔ THG shares should be worth 272p within 2 years

✔ As Ingenuity Sales reach £1.2bn (c£700m today), THG shares are worth 383p. If Ingenuity EBITDA margins also reach 15% (low single digit today), the shares are worth 452p"

Spend the evening doing some of your own research and joining the dots.

Some will imvho probably sell too early along the way. Your money, your choice. My money my choice.

Crafty they cannot be accused of not having a plan.

1. Demerge Ingenuity.

2. Then everybody goes - how much are the other 2 Divisions worth and all that money. It then adjusts upwards on all 3 counts.

3. Then - comes the step up to ESCC listing and FTSE 250. Perhaps even the FTSE100 in due course.

I disagree with some on the timing of the announcement being prior to the circular. Yes that would have been ideal but controversially or not, it gained massive publicity for the fact THG Ingenuity is up for sale.

Ask yourself this one question. How many UK companies have been undervalued and have ended up being taken over or taken private in the last year alone?

Our turns coming this time around.

Be surprised if they are not completely reduced and gone approaching the end of the 2nd week in October.

It's risky as it in my book given previous interest but gets even more risky from then on in for what might be mentioned on the demerger at any Q3 Update.

WE ARE talking huge valuation gaps between 51p / 52p and the OVMK £1.2 Billion for Thg Ingenuity alone and the other Sum of Parts and the numbers that Peel Hunt independently also foresee. Particularly if news of an approach leaks or news of a circular emerges.

"Many banks write research on THG, but it's rare multiple analysts with different specialisms come together like this. But for THG, it's the only way to ensure a true understanding of our group.

Here are some key conclusions from report:

✔ THG & the strategy makes sense

✔ THG is wildly undervalued on the LSE

✔ At 141p, well over 2x today's share price, THG would still be at a 50% discount to global peers

✔ THG shares should be worth 272p within 2 years

✔ As Ingenuity Sales reach £1.2bn (c£700m today), THG shares are worth 383p. If Ingenuity EBITDA margins also reach 15% (low single digit today), the shares are worth 452p"

Over exposed you stand to lose a significant amount of money. Unless of course it's actually a means to an end to actually pick up the stock at a reduced price then close up with and holding.

Indeed Yiab,

So don't answer on their behalf or do their work for them. Let them provide the links.

And if they can't then that tells you all you need to know.

I think you are maybe getting a little side tracked Novice82, and took the bait.

I'm interested in what OVMK have had to say on the value of Ingenuity at the time of the Apollo bid, irrespective of what their present holding is.

No need for infighting on whose got the best source as largely its irrelevant and if someone wishes to promulgate a notion on a bulletin board then let them provide the links and evidence. They didn't when asked and they haven't since.

So back to the point being made.

""Some interesting information that came out of the negotiations was that in the eyes of Apollo the Ingenuity division alone merited a valuation in excess of GBP1.2 billion. According to this keen buyer, this business unit, which we’re least able to value accurately and for the sake of convenience put at zero in our calculations, represents almost the whole current market value of the company."

So a valuation of £1.2 Billion for Ingenuity alone back then - against a full group THG share price valuation today for Ingenuity, Beauty and Nutrition combined of only £680M.

How much also did Peel Hunt individually value Ingenuity at given the significant ramp up in the THG share price once they hit certain milestones.

"✔ As Ingenuity Sales reach £1.2bn (c£700m today), THG shares are worth 383p. If Ingenuity EBITDA margins also reach 15% (low single digit today), the shares are worth 452p"

You're perfectly welcome to hand over your shares. I'm sure that discreetly in the background there will be Insti's hungry for your stock. Caveat: That's only between now and any Circular or leaked approach news.

Fyi

https://news.sky.com/story/apollo-swoops-for-parcel-delivery-giant-evri-in-2-7bn-deal-13184733

Jeclampit they spent a lot of money on THG due diligence and previously brought in Ex Coty and Ex Holland and Barrett execs to help structure a bid. They'll be more than interested and especially since it is THG that has raised the For Sale sign this time.

Not only that they have purchased Evri the delivery company since and nobody saw that coming. Forgive me for thinking that they might be tempted to vertically integrate fulfilment with delivery.