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Or could it appeal to the likes of Frasers Group, Next, Shein or another large global entity and effectively allowing the purchaser themselves to be added as a very large whale to the existing THG customer base.

13 Distribution Centres across the world from Dubai to New York, Manchester to Sydney, India to Europe has to be of appeal ...

its not far off 1 whole year since the apollo approach for the 3 divisions of thg was rejected and led to that notorious fighting talk #nothanks linkedin post from mm after rejecting their private equity approach.

last night though in the mark kleinman sky news post, so well informed it had to be placed by someone closely linked to thg, it made specific mention of ingenuity probably being taken private and effectively into private equity hands.

today in both rns and conference call, less of the fighting talk, far more mellow in the accompanying comments and what in effect is a huge for sale sign being put up by thg in the ingenuity window.

no mention i saw or heard of being anti to any controlling interests, nor negativity to debt as a constituent of any deal and the only real points that i can remember seeing or hearing mentioned seemed to be a wish for certain existing shareholders to roll over into any new entity if they wished, the 4000 jobs, and the need for £150 mill to fund ingenuity through to fcf in 3 years time. definitely far more mellow

so does apollo capitalise on the opportunity and come back to the table and lodge a further interest? easy for them to fund the capex and turn it profitable, then bringing it back for relisting (probably in the us)

here's what was said by mm at the time.

"like with all previous bidders, the apollo bid wasn’t right for thg. yes, it allowed existing shareholders to stay invested, with me continuing to run the group. but apollo also wanted pe controls, particularly across beauty & nutrition where they asked for controlling equity rights.

like all previous bidders, apollo were told their bid valuation & structure was unacceptable. yesterday apollo set out how they could raise their bid further, ahead of a deadline set by the takeover panel. their latest view on ingenuity had it as being significantly more valuable than the whole of thg the day before the bid leaked! (65p to 68p)

no ****! ingenuity is great. but neither apollo’s bid price, nor the structure proposed, are in the best interest of thg. myself, charles and the board, supported by>50% of shareholders, all agreed on that.

all are perfectly welcome to read the rns and watch the conference call again.

here also is that kleinman citya.m link.

https://news.sky.com/story/thg-weighs-demerger-of-technology-platform-ingenuity-13216310

One question I've got on the demerger if it ever occurs is with MM owning a chunk of the properties and being landlord, will some of those leases switch also to any new entity with its landlord and pose the same problem it does for THG with potential for conflicts of interest when it comes to decision making?

Or does he buy more of the freeholds on say Dubai and New Jersey and contribute to the £150M needed to get FCF at THG Ingenuity and thereby taking more control.

I'm well aware of Card Factory as you know Polish Cap and since the 30p's during the pandemic.

Always was convinced it would come good as they were sound with their financial management during the pandemic and expanded carefully and totally disagreed with the Naked Trader when he shorted it (and lost) and only to then buy into it later.

Personally I'd like to see a clear out at the top at THG for I think they are out of ideas and are hoping the macro picture will improve. A lifeline on that front might appear tomorrow with US interest rate decisions at 7p.m. and UK CPI tomorrow morning and the UK Interest rate decision on Thursday at midday. Who knows.

It might all change tomorrow in any case though what with the Fed making its decision at circa 7p.m.

Magnum PI I suspect it has a lot to do with underperformance and the ticking clock of that Term Loan B.

"You do a rebrand when sales are high". Or words to that effect in the conference call.

Can anyone just point me to where that is written anywhere in any MBA text book in any country in the world, for it looks to be the craziest of ideas.

It just seems so plain wrong. Why even go anywhere near disturbing what is working well for you and one of the primary drivers of the business and that was actually paying for and subsidising THG Ingenuity?

YoY THG Nutrition Revenues down -10.9%

In any other business somebody gets fired for this type of calamity. But at THG we vote for more of the same.

"At what stage is some sanity going to return here?"

Personally I'd wait for either Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs (or both) to release a bearish broker note.

MM tried to mask an estimates earnings downgrade this morning with sugar coated news, that unfortunately is miles away and one of which might never happen. Sadly the market had already twigged it prior to the conference call and is showing that collectively they are not suckers any more.

I think you chose your words carefully there OhhAhh in stating "operational mis-steps" I personally view them as decision making #uck #ps.

Premium listing as X404 states (and Kelso) should have happened ages ago.

Ingenuity has misfired for years and been a total non delivery and a complete drain on cash. Yet we have still persisted.

Acquisitions don't seem to be adding much.

Wtf is going on at Nutrition. Matt chose the CEO. Revenue now down over 10% and a completely opaque answer given to the analyst on what's gone wrong. its more than £5M currency and a spike in the whey price.

Beauty revenue growth stalling.

Vast shareholder money spent in the wrong place and now being sold (probably at a discount) and I have to agree that unfortunately it looks like more kicking the can down the road yet again.

Seems to have resulted in a positive reaction to their share price.

Not at Warpaint btw. Plus 9%.

I did mention them both reporting on the same day.

Jed why would they previously release news on the eve of other previous lacklustre results of supposedly considering doing the splits and the potential of being USA bound with one division, then in a conference call ( and with so much more enthusiasm than today) state that all the companies accounts were USA ready and "in the not too distant future"

I don't like to say it but the FT seem to be calling this right with poor results being combined with supposed strategy updates. The US one by the way has never happened to date. Sadly I think, and it is just my thoughts, Matt is sounding like a broken record, full of lame excuses and can now be read like a book, and the market is no longer fooled by it.

I have it as a trading share only for the time being until more concrete news emerges, and a firm commitment to either ESCC or any demerger or better numbers. Too early in my book to buy due to potential for further broker downgrades.

But good luck to anyone thinks they may profit from here.

Crafty they can always issue half those shares as bonus shares in January or February as that is what they normally do.

Then there should also be a January update where on the strength of that conference call I think they may even struggle to meet the new lower revised guidance. They didn't convince me.

Oh if only he'd taken the Apollo bid instead of slamming the door shut. Or even the 170p King Street Belerion bid which significantly undervalued the company.

Some 3 years on, 58p, and imho running out of road and favours.

Ingenuity for sure one expensive folly. But hey, all strategy decisions have been correct, everything is working well and everything in the garden is rosey. Except the market reaction says it is clearly not.

What Citi were saying

"Citi: FY24 guidance downgraded — Management now expects FY24 adj. EBITDA towards the lower-end of the consensus range, a c.-10% downgrade to current expectations (FY24 company consensus: Sales £2,098m, Adj. EBITDA £148m, range £133.8m-£156.5m; Citi FY24e: Sales £2,067m, Adj. EBITDA £147m). Management has moved from expecting FCF progression YoY, to having broadly unchanged Net Debt YoY despite a material c.£60m working capital inflow expected (Citi FY24e FCF: £16m vs. breakeven during FY23). Implications — We expect a materially negative share price reaction to this update given the scale of the 1H24 adj. EBITDA miss, the FY24e adj. EBITDA guide down, and the scale back of cash flow generation expectations. "

Unfortunately it ended up just as I thought with it being the Matt Moulding show what with him updating on virtually everything and no signs of the absent TGL again.

So what are we left with.

Guidance Reduced to the lower end of Estimates. (Analysts I thought were sceptical on the margins required to even get there.)

Nutrition fracturing sales. Thats beyond a £5M currency headwind and this rebrand now becoming a tired and pathetic excuse imo

ESCC Category in 6 months.

Ingenuity - I think there is finally the realisation that this is sucking the lifeblood out of THG. Not convinced by his positivity on it and that any demerger will ever happen. Don't think the analysts fully believe it either and I defo don't think the questions were answered on this particularly re what sort of balance sheet it might have and where the £150 needed to turn it FCF positive in 3 years will come from.

Sadly for me - new potential news created that's some way off to masking extremely poor performance in Nutrition and a slowing of growth in Beauty.

The FT link "THG and the art of expectation management" is the one you are looking for.

FT has an article running where it picks up on the constancy of poor results being combined with strategy updates and picks up on the cuts to guidance. Initial broker comments from Citi and Panmure Gordon picking up on the cuts to guidance and it now being at the lower end as well as their thoughts on the other news.

Worth a read if you want to see how the City interprets things and it wasn't behind a paywall when I looked a few minutes ago.

Crafty this should have been flying if he said ESCC inclusion at the earliest opportunity and Ingenuity is being seperately listed or sold to the highest bidder but instead all that has been given is convoluted language that translates to yet more delay.

Hopefully something of more substance comes out in the Analysts meeting but as it stands the market seemingly remains unconvinced by it all. I really do hope that this is not yet more stunt comments to get it through an analysts meeting with obvious fracturing Nutrition revenues.

Looks like Matt will be doing all the talking again for the analysts meeting. Will TGL make an appearance, command it and answer questions. Not likely but I'm prepared to be surprised.

Has to be some uncomfortable questioning re Nutrition as previous suggested remedies haven't stemmed the drop in sales and revenue.

Is THG now past Peak Protein? Previous prize asset, that should imvho have been the one demerged over a year ago when Kelso advised as such - yet here we are fracturing sales and revenue, down 10.9% now and after £50M spent on retaining custom and with incredibly a rebrand right after that. Optimum Nutrition also just about to accelerate its growth plans post flotation.

Over to the markets for a reaction.

1.ESCC inclusion

But March 2025?

Why the wait and why not at the earliest opportunity? So 6 months to ESCC inclusion then probably a further 3 month wait to inclusion in the FTSE250. So 6-9 months away and from a BoD that were supposedly actively following every step of the LSE review.

Ingenuity. Also welcome news but not convincing.

"the Group announces that it is actively undertaking detailed work to review potential structures to facilitate the demerger of THG Ingenuity." At this stage no certainty can be provided on a demerger timescale whilst we consider the options to achieve this outcome, however, structuring tax clearances have now been approved by HMRC."

That's as woolly as it gets.

Detailed work to review potential structures to facilitate the demerger ...

Really sorry to say this but it looks like the can is being kicked down the road on that one and it is neither in any advanced state nor does it definitively state it will happen. Possibly at best a For Sale sign has just been put up in respect of another loss making business.

It'll be interesting to see how the market itself interprets all of this.

I had plenty spare cash but will sit on it.