Member Info for onsolidground

Nice one Ocado

Blinding set of results to

1.92M in 24 minutes.

Either somebody has started closing or somebody is buying imho.

Where there are bargains to be had that man Ashley is never far away with his CFD's.

Indeed 1pencil I was after something a little more along the lines of Deliveroo's statement with a timeline.

Will it get short attacked during the analysts call, like it has in the past. That is the question.

So thats

Europe down 0.5% in 2 interest rate cuts in recent months

US down 0.5% in 1 cut last night

UK down 0.25% in 1 cut. with a further decision at 12 noon today. CPI even stevens so in the balance.

All good key markets for ITM and heading in the right direction for key business decisions.

Indeed shocking but its till the end of June and we are already beyond that.

Over to the Conference call to see if we get any green shoots.

Glad the sales completed.

Resets the balance sheet.

Agreed, the macros are now turning favourable. I thought they might just cut by 0.25% so its a result

Just need the update to push some of the right buttons.

*The same with The Range just having signed a contract with Ingenuity.*

Correct Mattyboy it started prior to the conference call and with initial mixed reporting of the news and possibly due to potentially the extended timeframes.

Having re-read everything though today I get why its 6 months until the move up to ESCC category when the likes of Deliveroo are moving quicker at the +20 days notice period. It's because imvho THG are fully expecting to move to the ESCC category without THG Ingenuity. Demerged and sold and moving up with 2 profitable businesses and potential for dividends and FTSE250 inclusion. For me Ingenuity will be gone by end of March, if not a lot sooner if Apollo re-engage.

So I'm not so sure why people get so hung up about short positions on THG for they are always around non profitable, non dividend paying, growth stocks. Probably not for too much longer here though or with some considerable risk.

If you know that then you simply use them to your advantage. So assume MW started short selling stock from 68p yesterday down to where we are today then their average short position over 2 days must be somewhere about 61p. But if you so desire you get to buy (if they let you) for 53.25p first thing tomorrow morning. Then why not buy in stages if so minded just in case it drops any further. Especially if you actually re-read the RNS's from yesterday and think on balance the results and what might be coming have resulted in overdone falls.

Matty you are right that Nutrition was already recovering in Q3 and they were just about to exit the period with it returning to growth. It's in the RNS and yes they do also need to stock up for the busiest quarter of the year. At cost. No doubt points that MM should have emphasised much better. The same with Ingenuity just having signed a contract with Ingenuity.

If I can keep an average lower than what I think MW are at with staged entry points then I'll be happy when they either close up pre next results when all 3 Divisions are in growth, or they get hit with the Ingenuity blockbuster RNS.

Each decides their own investment strategy or not.

Not a bad result that in the US as I had it my head that the US may only cut by 0.25%.

So that's EU down by 0.5% with 2 cuts.

US down by 0.5% with 1 cut

UK down 0.25% with 1 cut and 1 decision pending tomorrow. CPI even stevens today with the prior month so interesting.

All in key markets for THG so another of the macros is starting to turn in our favour.

Shabz I don't think it'll matter either way.

If you know what value Apollo attributed to THG Ingenuity alone 1 year back, and its been improved since, and how much the other 2 divisions are worth, then the first leaked signs of interest in THG Ingenuity and the share price will go ballistic.

Best probably to buy in stages or on any unsubstantiated dips.

Yiab I'm actually starting to think he is losing track of actually what is current and going on @THG.

For instance yesterday in the conference call he quoted £9M as being the cost of the "splits exercise" and in a previous conference call he said the cost was £15M.

I didn't personally note the Range / Wilko tie up in the RNS yesterday so will re-read it but I have to agree that he should have had this Range / Wilko tie up somewhere near the top on his keypoints list to bring out during the call as its a very good contract win - and particularly given it is THG Ingenuity related.

Not his best day yesterday by any stretch of the imagination and I wouldn't be surprised if at some point in the not too distant future if he does like Stelios did at Easyjet and reverts back from the CEO's role and becomes a passive investor. I actually think he is one that wishes to roll over into any new structure that takes over Ingenuity.

But there you go - a 4% to 14% discount on any buy in price based on how it could have perhaps been better delivered and like I said it only enhances the appeal of Ingenuity further.

Thankfully for once its getting picked up elsewhere.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2024/09/the-range-thg/

That's actually a really good tie up and I have to admit to being a big fan of the Range products myself.

Shame he didn't have it in his back pocket and mention it yesterday at the conference call or punted it out as an RNS Reach this morning. (When will he for once take good advice - Both Kelso and Peel Hunt have told him to RNS more)

Will definitely add though to the appeal of THG Ingenuity as a stand alone business and Mr Crane seems to be making inroads where Vivek didn't.

Thanks for posting.

Here's who was brought in previously to assist. Worth watching to see if they get re-employed or of they bring in distribution and fulfilment expertise

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2023/05/apollo-coty-ceo-thg/

If Apollo or any of the funds they act on behalf of are shrewd enough then they should look to purchase THG shares prior to another move on Ingenuity or the whole THG group. Then if for instance if its Ingenuity only do the deal. A well placed leak on the run up optional but not necessary. So pick up THG stock cheap, do the deal and immediately the focus immediately turns to Sum of Parts valuations.

Their statement after the last approach was rebuffed didn't preclude them returning and it did state that they reserved the right to acquire THG shares.

Given they spent previous monies on due diligence and appointed key industry professionals to assist with a bid I'd be absolutely dumfounded if they are not one of the first to make contact, yesterdays statement providing a green light.

https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/pressreleases/2023/05/statement-of-intention-not-to-make-an-offer-for-thg-plc

"Personally I think if he sees another such 'wobble' then the voice of reason (his family) advise him to do a Poppy Gustaffson (Darktrace) and sell up."

or Doctor.

Sbb I think people are interpreting that some of the >65% are growing impatient.

I myself personally interpreted his comments that the decision was made after extensive consultation with existing shareholders and that to mean that some of the >50% who indicated against the Apollo had now swung the other way.

I also took the Ingenuity For Sale statement to mean that nobody is even remotely interested in partnership deals and letting THG hold 51% and the controlling interest.

Starfighter I fully agree with you and yesterdays performance came after a health wobble and a summer timeout to reset.

Personally I think if he sees another such 'wobble' then the voice of reason (his family) advise him to do a Poppy Gustaffson (Darktrace) and sell up.

Nothing stopping Apollo coming back for Ingenuity (or indeed the whole group). 65p to 70p for Ingenuity alone with a £150M cash injection to see it through to FCF and the ability for existing shareholders to roll over into the new entity and its gone. 225p to 250p offered again for the THG whole and I think MM would now himself be minded to sell up.

Mad time to be selling any imvho what with Sum of Parts far in excess of the present sp and Apollo having valued Ingenuity alone at higher than the groups full market cap. Ingenuity it also has to be pointed out has improved since then.

Been marked down on the estimates revision but no credit given for the Ingenuity sale side and ESCC inclusion.

Might bag myself a few traders later today if it goes much lower and then just sit back and wait. Ingenuity I have is getting sold between now and March and the For Sale sign just went up yesterday.

I share your thoughts Mr Brian that he looked tired. Not surprised though after a recent wobble and time-out. I also happen to think that nobody has been even remotely interested in a partnership deal and leaving THG in charge with 51% else we wouldn't be where we are and that the Ingenuity demerger has been thrust upon him by some of the LTH shareholders in the >50% growing impatient.

They unlike us mushrooms were privy to what Apollo offered previously. Personally I hope that he's been told to drop any insistence on THG retaining a controlling interest and simply to get a deal over the line.