Member Info for onsolidground

Most in the mining sector are all up well today.

All to do with China's stimulus package.

Most sectors generally speaking have their turns at ups and downs.

Mining seems to be very much back on the front foot.

There was a time in the past where these tricks worked in conning people out their shares but everybody seems to be aware of these antics now and moreso how low the share price is relative to other key previous Bid values and detailed analysis. In fact Peel Hunt who were given full and unrestricted independent access to THG with 3 different specialist analysts in the field for each of the businesses and who published a 79 page report reiterated a 141p share price target only yesterday. Even that we know is the most conservative of their numbers.

So interpreting between the lines there was maybe an attempt yesterday and today by MW to try and massage things down a bit but on both days it has been met with limited selling and the share price has then rose again. So it looks to have been counterproductive and in all probability counter played by someone purchasing.

Tonight an Uncrossing trade also of over 500,000 to the topside of the spread. (522707 @ 55.7p) so perhaps the MM's are filling an order or someone is doing it themselves.

Just my own personal views

He didn't say THG would put in £150M in THG Ingenuity.

I recall him saying it would take circa £150M to get it to FCF in 3 years. he also went on to state in effect that it could have its own financing. That said THG have got enough on the balance sheet to fund that amount.

It's more saleable now what with the improvements under the new team and now into an era of interest rate cuts and growth which is something no doubt private equity would be viewing.

Its an 18 fulfilment centre business with global reach, technology platform and THG Studios and all the marketing and analysis side on top.

Easy win for the right purchaser imho

He didn't say THG would put in £150M in THG Ingenuity.

I recall him saying it would take circa £150M to get it to FCF in 3 years. he also went on to state in effect that it could have its own financing. That said THG have got enough on the balance sheet to fund that amount.

It's more saleable now what with the improvements under the new team and now into an era of interest rate cuts and growth which is something no doubt private equity would be viewing.

Its an 18 fulfilment centre business with global reach, technology platform and THG Studios and all the marketing and analysis side on top.

Easy win for the right purchaser imho

How much would it cost anyone else to build that and set up the relationships

Thanks for the reply longterminvestor.

That is always how I was looking at BP, as a long term investment.

The oild price moves in cycles, we're past peak oil and at some point it will climb to $100 dollars per barrel again. Probably this winter.

It's gained my interest again for the Telegraphs Questor only a month or so back added it to its value portfolio at 426 and with a 5.7% dividend. So add 10% to that.

The bit that mystifies me is that with Israel priming itself for in all probability a ground offensive into Lebanon and the powder keg that would ignite in the region I can't understand the lowering of the oil price.

The sceptic in me says the oil price is being played to bring down inflation and to enable more interest rate cuts. Perhaps someone having the keys to the door on how the Oil price is set.

I'll add it to my active watchlist again and watch for a bit before deciding and thats in the knowledge it takes more than one days oil price to make up the accounts of a 365 days a year business.

He may have procrastinated in part but I'd also combine that with a fair bit of flannel to just try and see it through to FCF and hope everything would turn in his favour. Unfortunately Vivek just wasn't bringing home the contract wins and cost him (and us) 2 years.

However the new Chairman Richard Crane and the new CEO Richard Ward are succeeding where he had failed and have successfully onboarded Holland and Barrett, Frasers, Fuel10k and more recently The Range / Wilko onto the paltform.

That's not bad going given Crane is presently part-time and arguably they now have a very good top team in place and a proposition that is fare more saleable.

https://www.retail-week.com/health-and-beauty/holland-and-barrett-teams-up-with-thg-for-supply-chain-overhaul/7045361.article

https://www.retail-week.com/health-and-beauty/thg-and-frasers-launch-ingenuity-tie-up/7046487.article

https://www.just-food.com/news/thg-partners-with-premier-foods-in-fuel10k-ecommerce-move/

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2024/09/the-range-thg/

Visible success now coming through might also have been what turned the dial.

M1Rob

"Company won’t be making money with iron here and electricity prices rocketing"

From the last update.

"It is therefore pleasing to note that we were able to end the period with a modest increase in our net cash position.

For the remainder of the year, we will focus on optimising current production levels. We remain hopeful that domestic electricity supply will improve during the third quarter when power plants that were shut for maintenance come back on-line."

Can't be too far off another update also to be fair.

OB, its only taken him 2 years of stubborness and thinking he is always right - to realise that he isn't. Thought he could deliver the "significant value" reasons for Bid refusals - yet he hasn't.

It's the share price that has made him realise that, that plus in between efforts not adding value. I also suspect his recent "moment" has caused the change of heart / direction.

His extensive consultation with shareholder over the last 12 months I do question, particularly given the Ian Mac debacle and also Kelso's pre AGM statement only a few months back calling for a shareholder vote on the present direction, which was backed by others. There may have been consultation but I think it was probably more confined to family, close friends, fellow Directors all who hold are shareholding and also avid supporters like Sir Tom Hunter, Monroe etc. Most of whom, like most LTH's will be under water on their own private cash purchases.

TGL, Damien Sanders and John Gallemore and wife certainly are (albeit they will have averaged down with freebie options) Others employees not so lucky though and including all those prize winners gifted £50k reward shares.

I do though believe that this motivation through the Ingenuity demerger or sale and the follow on plan is for all to benefit , hence why I patiently hold.

Interesting drop for an FTSE100 company but its been in a downtrend for a few weeks.

Is there any definitive reason for the falls?

Nice slow and steady rises.

Wonder where we might be come Christmas?

Would be happy to settle for last years chart personally.

Now back to the levels it went into suspension at and when all financials were a mess and so many issues and clouds were hanging over the company. (On the 2 year chart)

Could do with a chunky Director buys or three or might somebody start thinking about taking it over.

Astonishing really.

I think based on those numbers there is probably good grounds for holding both.

I think the reason you feel that bit more optimistic Kyk is probably because for once it is THG that is actively looking at restoring shareholder value through the demerger or sale of THG Ingenuity.

That plus we all have some figures to approximate that worth to be, and know what it will do for the worth of the rest of the Sum of Parts of the business.

Also for once strategically we have had some communication on stragegy and there is in there a clear pathway to the restoration of much higher value in the THG share price. (Even if the market isn't recognising it at the moment)

So demerge or sell THG Ingenuity... then the focus turns back onto the worth of a highly profitable Sum of Part worth for both THG Nutrition and THG Beauty. (Applied Nutrition a benchmark but a tiddler by comparison with THG Nutrition) Then a step to ESCC listing thereafter, then FTSE 250 inclusion and tracker funds having to buy in on top.

Its a cunning plan and it doesn't take a genius to work out that integral to it all is the demerger or sale of THG Ingenuity. So for me it's happening and its a case of all reasonable offers considered and the only 1 pre-condition is the ability for all to rollover into any new entity.

If you know the previous numbers then you say the risk reward at these levels is in favour of the latter (reward).

So for once a little patience might be very highly rewarded.

Your money your choice, my money my choice.

On the morning of the H1 update and the results the market actually opened THG up and moved it up to 68p, before the darker forces manipulated the sp down for their own gain. That bit is yet another chapter in history.

Those same dark forces though are going to have to buy back quickly if there is news of a circular or Bid interest as whoever loaned them out the shares will want the full benefits for themselves.

Anybody thinking of contacting Betfred to see if they are prepared to write us any odds on MW being gone again by the end of the 2nd week in October at the latest, what with scope for an update. Just like they did prior to H1 results.

Risky business betting against the news as it is. Even more so if your betting with leverage, don't you think?

All are perfectly welcome to hand their share over if they like.

I think I'll hang around and wait for the much bigger prize to come thank you very much.

For the first time since the Apollo Bid, and at THG's inception, there is sight of pounds and two pounds. Never, ever been here before where it is THG looking for the right deal.

New store looks nice btw and a first move into Bricks and Mortar retail will prove fruitful. If it succeeds (and this one I think will as its in a very affluent area not too far away from MM's mansion) then it might lead to a wider rollout and I wouldn't rule out a tie up with Frasers Group Flannels stores for a wider quick rollout of instore concessions.

404x

There is nobody like SMS to network and bring in additional large value clients.

The last update suffered a little from some larger clients cutting back or wanting more for their money at the same price.

Things might change though considerably what with half point interest rate cuts in the US and EU and the UK due another cut at next MPC.

Its probably a staged entry buy in to work an average out of any manipulation, then hold and wait for better times.

The same shares get played time and time again.

Financial suicide then surely to be short into any Circular dropping or Bid?

Especially given the huge valuation gaps existing between the present share price and THG Ingenuity valuations Sum of Parts valuations.

54p against

- 170p Belerion / King Street bid

- 200p-250p Apollo bid (OMVK quarterly update)

- £1.3 Billion - the value Apollo placed on THG Ingenuity alone (Been improvement and added capacity since at New Jersey)

- The value Apollo placed on Ingenuity alone being "significantly more" that the share price the day immediately before their bid became public knowledge (Was circa 65p)

- 220p - Sum of Parts valuation (Liberum at time of the Apollo bid)

- 141p that Peel Hunt have just reiterated (still leaving it at a 50% discount to its peers (PH Report)

- 272p value for THG within 2 years (Peel Hunt)

- THG shares should be worth 272p within 2 years (Peel Hunt)

- THG worth 383p when Ingenuity sales reach £1.2B. (Peel Hunt)

- THG worth 452p if THG Ingenuity margins hit 15% (Peel Hunt)

My money, my choice. Your money, your choice.

Lets see what sort of update we get in a couple of weeks time.

Probably deserving of a seperate thread on its own.

Was a little surprised that late last week, the weekend and into Monday and Tuesday nobody had started to focus on the Sum of Parts - and particularly Peel Hunt given their previous independent 79 page report on THG. In fact exceptionally quiet till then. Cynically I suppose you could argue it gives time for a Broker note to be punted out to clients.

So 141p.

Well that coincides with the lowest of the estimates they themselves provided at the time.

"Peel Hunt used multiple analysts to compile the review, from Tech to Consumer Brands - recognising THG has 3 large, global businesses with different specialisms:

1. a very well-invested, Tech, Media & Logistics platform, with c4,000 staff globally

2. the world’s No1 Sports Nutrition brand Myprotein

3. one of the world’s major Beauty groups, encompassing Brands, Retail & Manufacturing

Many banks write research on THG, but it's rare multiple analysts with different specialisms come together like this. But for THG, it's the only way to ensure a true understanding of our group.

Here are some key conclusions from report:

✔ THG & the strategy makes sense

✔ THG is wildly undervalued on the LSE

✔ At 141p, well over 2x today's share price, THG would still be at a 50% discount to global peers

✔ THG shares should be worth 272p within 2 years

✔ As Ingenuity Sales reach £1.2bn (c£700m today), THG shares are worth 383p. If Ingenuity EBITDA margins also reach 15% (low single digit today), the shares are worth 452p"

(Source is Matt Mouldings Linkedin at the time. Peel Hunt Report is embargoed to Retail Investors)

Can't personally wait for the Circular to drop!!

Well if it's good enough for HSBC to be interpreting it that the demerger will happen and posting out letters then thats good enough for me. They're not telling any lies either that on a demerger you will get shares in both companies. That's fact also, unless it doesn't make it that far and gets taken over before. In which case I presume all would be get a further letter and be given the choice to either roll over into the new structure or to take a cash equivalent instead.

It does though pose an interesting question for me about the demergers and specifically in relation to loaned out and shorted shares.

Pretend for an instance I'm West Coast Capital and I lend out some of my shares for a fee to say Marshall Wace.

Marshall Wace then decide to sell them short into the market to lower the price to then later hopefully buy them back cheaper and repay West Coast Capital their shares back and pocket a tidy profit for themselves along the way.

But then say they are still short when the Split / Demerger occurs.

Doesn't MW then have a big problem if they have sold those original shares short. For West Street Capital will be wanting repaid with the shares they loaned out and any entitlements that were attached to them. So am I right in thinking WSC should be entitled after demerger to not only the THG shares but also a pro rata an amount of THG Ingenuity shares. Essentially repayment of both sets of shares. Each probably with an ascribed value far greater than the present market cap presently is.

So if MW still find themselves short post the demerger will they have to re-enter the market to buy back both sets of shares to pay back WSC. Do I have that correct? Or is anybody thinking that in this instance West Coast Capital stands to lose out?

Seems a bit silly for anyone out there to be lending any shares into a pending demerger and with potential for a significant value rerate of both parts of the newly demerged business and likewise for those selling short if it is they carry the risk.

Does anyone know the definitive answer on this?

Starting to look very cheap again, in an interest rate cutting environment.

Probably why all the activity moving it back and forth.

Might take a few more to stock up for any Santa Rally and SFOR probably being napped for next year.