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Oh and gas is up over 5% and Brent flat but higher since last UK equity market close yet am looking at -1.8% here
There is no point in looking at gas or brent prices . Price goes where it wants
I agree with the Buffett quote but today I expected a good rebound , How does Brent at 82.6 (cash) translate to today's price going down ? Its just pointless to see a correlation here as at 16.30 price shoots up to say 83.5 falls by 0.1 during UK trading time tomorrow and HBR will fall again ! Completing non caring of the overall rise . Any type of analysis here seems to go out of the window, price here is random or down
I agree Truss was right , the Bank of England unprepared and found offside , just about anyone in the City knows that but it served the media to trash talk her policies down. She was right in concept but should have seen the trap coming a mile away . At least in my view and had a better grasp of the Bank Of England issues and lack of readiness to enact her policy .
We need a more experienced politician to pass the policies she wanted to correctly implement . Politics is a horrible came of patience and the art of compromising strategically
Shame that as the UK market shut Brent surged quite bit . Could have been testing if not passing that 100 day moving average I have been mentioning lately . I see that Habour broke it yesterday and managed to close the week above .
With Brent in good form my mentioned recent short term target should come true, and similarly there is a nice up lift for HBR too
Long way to go for most long term shareholders though . My last buy was at 19 but that was only good to give me a mid 20s average . At least am honest . This period pained me and pains me at least for this side of the portfolio
Typical summer's day yet Brent and oil in general is doing very well . Big jump in gas prices today too
Was hoping to see this comfortably reach 300p soon
Hi Raging Bull,
Could you please point me to the Goldman £6 rating link . I seem to have missed that one . Great to see nevertheless
I have a long way to catch up at av 360s . So long before I get excited
Hi Kraken,
I think its looking good to me (chart wise at long last we may soon see if we get our very first higher high in ages )
From my post of the 13th ( its starting to come true in my view )
"Brent over $81 now13 Jul 2023 20:38
Enquest to rise tomorrow ? . Pretty obvious to me that this current level has been a very traded level , should it break up it should move a few pennies up quite fast 16,8 is the 100ma there after its blue sky to 20
Today we kept above the 50ma something that has not happened in ages . Are things about to change ?
So whilst trend is down and has been for ages ( and the I mean 200ma 100ma and possibly include 50ma ) Momentum has picked up from end of June ( stochastic , RSI, MACD , ROC whatever you use as short term MAs ) and we either find resistance tomorrow (look at volume profile) and stay stuck or we finally breakout . First target that 100ma so about 16.88p then 20p . To me that is where it will head with these Brent prices . Caveat is the seasonality for stocks that in summer its usually low volume and 'stay away till September' . Especially UK stocks . If my stats are correct since 2013 July has seen Enquest up 60% of the times."
Lets see , next price action could be bullish at long last . We suffered a lot so about time we see some good price action for the Bulls
Agree with that Stumpy
Lets see Stumpy . Michigan consumer survey today was off the scales. somehow contradicting your thoughts on the US economy 77.2 ! That is off the charts . I was very surprised . I think soft landing is something I could believe in. Jamie Dimon's words today are from the best banking CEO out there . Worth a listen
Cheaper and more productive use of cash for them to use asset swaps . Its cheap for them to track the performance and not actually own the shares and uses less cash too .
Tells me US economy and consumer are doing well and are resilient .
Good for oil consumption to see a good US economy .
Enquest to rise tomorrow ? . Pretty obvious to me that this current level has been a very traded level , should it break up it should move a few pennies up quite fast 16,8 is the 100ma there after its blue sky to 20
Today we kept above the 50ma something that has not happened in ages . Are things about to change ?
So whilst trend is down and has been for ages ( and the I mean 200ma 100ma and possibly include 50ma ) Momentum has picked up from end of June ( stochastic , RSI, MACD , ROC whatever you use as short term MAs ) and we either find resistance tomorrow (look at volume profile) and stay stuck or we finally breakout . First target that 100ma so about 16.88p then 20p . To me that is where it will head with these Brent prices . Caveat is the seasonality for stocks that in summer its usually low volume and 'stay away till September' . Especially UK stocks . If my stats are correct since 2013 July has seen Enquest up 60% of the times.
We will soon have one big issue if production /supply needs to be increased in the US . Oh they do have a 'minor' issue of replenishing the strategic reserve but hey ... everybody has forgotten that.
Oil Futures Market Finally Signals Supply Tightening
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Futures-Market-Finally-Signals-Supply-Tightening.html
Surprised to a certain extent that we couldn't pass the weekly highs of 15,70 ish given where oil is today but then we are just below a lot of overhead resistance and volume profile was perfectly above price . The good news is if we beat the 15.80-16 levels then 18 should prove to be easy to reach short term. Oil is moving up again and GS is back to being very bullish with their oil year targets. Enquest wise 21.5p being a target I'd expect to get taken out once we consolidate in the 18-21.5 area.
We reached all time lows in terms of Enquest divided by a barrel of Brent . To me that is a nonsense given the much improved balance sheet so any positivity here and a bag or 2 is not out of the question. Just a view no advice but looking at the chart and balance sheet that is how I come that conclusion .
For disclosure my last buy stands at 19 and have average in mid 20s
Interesting article today on soaring supertanker rates . Could be the precursor of a nice bull run in oil as demand soars in Asia
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Supertanker-Rates-Soar-As-Middle-East-Oil-Shipments-Jump.html
Such a silly thing still in my opinion .
It won't deter Enquest, Harbour etc from looking abroad. This will do nothing to the UK oil and gas plans and the government's own goals is what we will be paying in the long run as our energy industry looks elsewhere.
"This level is based on 20-year historical averages" This is what they write on the news release . Yet 20 years ago you could buy a lot of everything a lot cheaper. Why didn't they do an average which is inflation adjusted ? Do the unions get offered a 20 years historical average salary for their workers ? NO . Its always going up . Yet somehow those who run an oil company can miraculously strip out inflation and continue paying their staff a 20 year average price too ? DOUBT IT
The only positive I take today is that we have a) a Floor and b) the beginning of the back peddling on this disaster of an idea which was only bought by the public as a populist lie . The government having no spine and no respect for those who elected it caved in when they had such a huge majority in parliament. Shocking
I just hope this is the start of taking those idiotic taxes down . A 20 year average of a commodity is really ridiculous as a metric . Sunak could have asked his hedge fund buddies in Macro to explain this very simple issue
Inflation
Hi Kraken ,
In fairness I think Linda is totally against these idiots of politicians , the interview with the Green party lunatic was quite something to watch , a smart woman with an enormous business background and competences vs a total nobody who has based her career on no skill other than coercing the young and gullible into her commie views , just because they sound all like some Disney cartoon .
The reality is that Linda has skin in the game Caroline Lucas is just a leach like most politicians with no real single day in her life running a big corporation with all its complexities, Lucas manipulates gullible people and spreads a lot of misguided propaganda . It works for a while sadly then it will end . Sadly these actions cause damage as in our energy security and business people will though find solutions as that is what business do or go bust.
Politicians can fail all their decisions yet remain somehow in parliament . They don't really face the consequences and lose their salaries , the minions might but the main MPs are elected in safe seats .
Interactive Brokers has a P/E ratio that is a third of our peers so from that perspective our current price is clearly undervalued
It also has analysts views ( I believe 11 of them ) with a consensus of 4.37 as per the Refinitiv rankings.
To me its clear that the Zama project alone is not even accounted for here as are the recent developments , its huge and can totally help HBR move away from our dodgy and discriminatory tax system .
The UK government and opposition are hell bent on the own goal of no energy security so HBR is right to pursue all the offshore projects it can .
Last I checked there is no pipeline crossing the Atlantic , maybe that was the source of those who were deriding you.
Just a guess :-)
The only way to transport gas is to cool it and that process turns into a liquid , ie LNG , very costly , normal gas goes from source to pipeline with actual taps stopping the flow , some like in Russia can't even be stopped due to winter weather conditions . There is no storage .
Jeffrey1979
Throughout history we have seen governments do what they want for a while , then I can quote revolutions or toppled governments much like anyone here can .
As for the UK , we have 2 realities to contend with , 1) Nature and 2) market forces In my mind with supply constraints and under investments energy prices are depressed . When a pendulum swings too much to one side I always feel it will come back with a bigger force the higher it gets.
Valuation of Enquest is currently worse than when we had 2billion in debt . Crazy times.
The video posted today (link on youtube is very much in line with a lot of what I think too )