Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
My view only .
We see that the bond market is pricing almost 200 bps worth of Fed cuts over the next 18 months.
This is by far the biggest amount of cumulative Fed cuts the bond market ever priced in over the last 37 years.
Now why is this important , well to me when the yield on government bond falls, i.e., bond prices rise, retaining oil reserves becomes more attractive to the oil producing countries, which then have less incentive to accommodate demand rises, and so the oil price rises.
We have seen the SPR depleted in the US and yet demand for products keep on depleting inventories We are also seeing India's and China's demand for oil increase substantially inline with Goldman's predictions . This is bullish , they don't have stop oil activists there and they need lots of oil etc to keep up their economical growth , only renewables are not sufficient nor reliable nor can you manufacture plastics using thin air.
I have a target WTI of $93 this year after this blip in April . I was also bullish April as usually HBR does well this month l SO hopefully there is a delayed rally .
My two cents. I hold 245 CFDs for trading purposes and holding physical in around the 355 mark now on average So am down for now . Honestly gutted so far
I bought at 245 the other thinking it was smart buy especially given the stochastic levels reached . Clearly I got that 10 p wrong so far . What I don't get is that post my buy we had the oil discovery which looks substantial and surely is value accretive , I mean oil is not free and out of the UK tax grab, whether Labour or Tory. Yet no value to that discovery has been assigned and no value was priced in already in any report whatsoever . One consolation is that my divis are automatically re-invested and the lower the price the better as overall my average will decrease. (yet only by a small bit)
Other crazy thing is that oil inventory draws were huge so something here is not making sense in my view
But when does it make sense ? Last 2 years have been terrible
Should also in theory take a lot less time to eventually start production .
I feel that shareholders have underestimated projects in the portfolio of HBR especially those not in the North Sea . The value of this news is certainly not a flat day . There is a lot of value in this project and will be keen to get data on NPVs ( projected)
The best bit is that we are going to clearly diversify away from the greedy taxman in the UK and eventually stick 2 fingers to them . My 245 buy got lucky this time ( as posted a few days ago )
For reference . I do like the odd trade
Stochastic looks like turning , RSi oversold and turning , MACD same etc and Brent oil in general I closed my short last night .
My main holding was averaged at 360 , this lot at 245 is for trading purposes only unless we see a proper trend establish itself
For reference . I do like the odd trade
Stochastic looks like turning , RSi oversold and turning , MACD same etc and Brent oil in general I closed my short last night .
My main holding was averaged at 360 sadly , this 245 will be for trading purposes unless we see the start of a proper trend up
Also of note than the slightly lower yet still very bad inflation figures today saw stubborn and high food prices and non alcoholic drinks not energy . On the massive of exceptional profiteering why is the UK oil industry to pay for all ? Supermarkets are clearly profiteering . How do a bottle of water go from 70/80p to 110p in this insane period ? Was there a war in Scotland we weren't told about ? Seems to be raining every other day here in London . Can't see why a bottle of Highland Springs Water should go up so much in such a short amount of time . Oil took the full on blame for all problems yet its not capable alone as an industry to shoulder all government deficits ! Seems like the population believes in fairy tales and they deserve this government and the one to come .
When one looks at Brent in GBPUSD I just can't see why the EPL is applicable, its simply isn't an exceptional price and its just pure theft from populist masochism. Couldn't put it any better. Population may think hooray we get billions when in reality they won't and won't even get millions. Utter stupidity of so many that there should be a collective Darwin award on how to extinguish the country's wealth so fast .
agree with Bornlooser .
Also would add that HBR is working on diversifying its geographical energy exposure and so far hasn't explained the financial up side from the carbon capture project which surely has a benefit .
The fact that North Sea production may not become investable is short term pain for shareholders but HBR already has substantial assets overseas . Some have huge potential.
Eventually the government of the day will figure out the huge own goal and pain caused to not just the shareholders but general public too. HBR is not going to disappear they will emerge stronger and less vulnerable to one single idiotic government, ( again remember the MPs didn't vote for the windfall tax this was a weak populist pandering PM , the next batch to come to power will be just as bad if not worse but by then HBR has had a head start in moving our production abroad )
The 31st of March -Apr 03 gap that was formed following the announcement of OPEC cuts is now closed and its remarkable .
Brent is over $5 above the Brent levels pre gap so all this is crazy whilst appreciating the ex div situation .
Well the old saying all gaps close , this one did . so lets surge now above 300-320 which is where we should be heading at a minimum
Libertarian stands for small government . It does not mean 'any type of state intervention" . Look it up please.
Angela Rayner becomes a minister as well as David Lammy lol .
How low can we sink ?
As for bragging ..c'est la vie mate. I wasn't bragging.
Enjoy your day whilst I'll learn how to be more balanced so as not to offend your sensitivities. :-))
keep on projecting . Won't change reality am afraid.
You can easily find the MPs that were for and against. Tory MPs were not in favour of the windfall tax .
This from your rag.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/10/tory-rejection-of-windfall-tax-on-energy-firms-beggars-belief-says-ed-miliband