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It is some sort of a joke . 57p in June and today 72.8 and we fall back to the same share price ???? How is this realistic ? FCF gone in reverse ? no . Just being played . We go up 1 dollar and I bet we reverse nevertheless
With a similar low as today .
Now 18$ extra dollars is not exactly 'a little higher' with some margin of plus or minus difference . Its EIGHTEEN DOLLARS higher ! What the hell is going on to revist the high 13s ?
This is just plain silly
Somewhat illogical that now gas is 9% up ! and HBR down . FCF despite the windfall tax is still substantial and at these underlying gas and oil prices does not warrant current valuation . I only hope they can speed up the asset revaluation abroad as the faster they do the less over tax any tory or labour government can get out of Harbour.
I want news from our non UK assets !
From API so EIA tomorrow
API INV
Crude -5.25
Cushing -2.564
Gasoline +0.732
Diesel -0.258
Whatever we are priced at the FCF moves up a lot for every 1$ , in oil We don't even have the shorter anymore . Very weird especially with no debt now and a nice dividend yield . Oh and that other asset we produce ie GAS up 8.5% today
Closed at 95( Oct contract) that is insane to then see no movement in share price ! Brent cash at 95ish and Gas up 8,5% shorter gone or at least not seen it on the reported shorts .
Geez we even had Sunak talk about relaxing Net Zero ,how about reducing a tax that is not bringing in any real value to anyone ? Allowed to make serious profits HBR would have probably been paying more in tax as the shareholders materialise serious gains too . The net here if you add capital losses is no way near what they thought it would bring in . How obvious was that to all ? yet the clowns don't get it
Compare BP to HBR
Government has been so stupid as well as those who supported this tax. BP marched on whilst our own HBR crashed.
BP was used for the headlines completely misleading the general twice . 1 BP is international and 2 our energy security and ability to influence green matters will be shown 2 fingers once we will 100% import from jurisdictions where we have zero ability to control anything
Twice stupid and three times once Labour is in power. We have a left wing party in power and a marxist one incoming .
I only hope HBR does its best to diminish its UK presence as quick as possible and it too stick 2 fingers at UK governments who are clueless on either side .
The funniest thing of all is that the very one that is benefiting is a hedge fund ,the very people they profess to despise .....
Who probably run the strategy in Cayman Island wrapper, you couldn't make it up
This bb has become so off topic its insane . People with personal issues and going through boredom who think a bb is their speakers corner I suggest you hit the gym , go for a walk in the park, get therapy or start your own blog somewhere, If your opinion is what you think most people want to read every other minute , you have an issue. Or open a blog and see how many are really interested.
Please lets keep this to HBR and related topics on oil and gas or at least investing in fundamentals, tech or quant views to help exchange valid trading approaches and views.
Kokomo ,
I was going to post the same. A while back when approaching 85 I felt that 300p was certainly in reach . today at nearly $94 ..... We'll get there as ultimately any hint of a decreasing EPL will come when they see HBR production in the UK as part of the total decreasing . Can't wait for our non UK projects to really kick in The asset revaluations should be material even as I type
Most likely because of the EPL that won't happen as its reserves-based lending facility has been reduced to $1.1bn from $2.7bn previously . So they just can't borrow to do that . For disclosure I hold both as part of a portfolio of shares in the sector globally
So I look at Average price this year of Brent in USD , Brent in GBP , Enquest and Brent /Enquest and Brent in GBP by Enquest
The conclusion I leave to you but it shows a highly inconsistent valuation discrepancy
FIrst the data :
Q1 Brent: 82.077$ Enquest 20.1p GBP/USD 1.2155. (Brent/GBPUSD)/ Enquest = 3.354
Q2 Brent: 77.732$ Enquest 16.39 GBP/USD 1.2524. (Brent/GBPUSD)/ Enquest = 3.785
Q3 Brent: 83.512$ Enquest 16.59 GBP/USD 1.2576. (Brent/GBPUSD)/ Enquest = 3.944
3.944 Enquest shares now for every barrel of Brent in Sterling . Up from 3.3 . Not making too much sense to me
I do appreciate that FCF is impacting by both Capex and OPex so will overlay those to the above but the ratios are telling me that vs Brent in GBP Enquest is way over sold
I noticed how we are very much at year highs for Brent in GBP , similar levels achieved in Q1 which then followed a much lower Q2 . Having just taken a beating with the H1 results despite the strong FCF I just wanted to point out that in Q1 with a similar so far level for Brent in sterling the quarter had share price of between 19.5ish and nearly 24p . Q2 dropped as Brent dropped. Q3 is now averaging ( early days I know ) better than Q1 .
If this lasts (strong oil ) then current share price is a total aberration as we can see what Q1 gave and I feel we'll beat that. We are currently paying the price of a Q2 which was as it seems the culprit for this share price decline. rightly or wrongly .
I'll get the Q1 Brent in GBP Average and Q2 and Q3 later so to show the point am making
YES EPL needs to be lowered and production moved abroad.
One of the funniest (and stupid ) things I read today was the offshore windfarm story which has seen no contracts and was a total flop
UK energy is in trouble if it doesn't reduce the EPL as it will become more and more dependent on countries which most likely laugh at our own goal so why stifle our oil and gas industry ? dumb and dumber Tory and Labour
https://www.ft.com/content/c5a2986a-6edf-46d1-bcbc-584fb9426802
At least for me how crazy to have nearly 89$ cash Brent contract and Enq at 14.7ish as I type, just over 70p in GBP terms which in the not so distant past would have given a much higher valuation .
Imagine the swearing if in a pub with me and Kraken today lol lol lol .
JAdams I agree with Baron's point FCF is still strong and debt has fallen enormously
I also read the usual attacks on the hedges by some other posters . Let me explain that they are forced into hedging a part of production just like any firm would given our debt facilities. Its standard.
As for the crazy fall today , I do wonder indeed if it has been augmented due to swedish exchange sellers.
Enquest should speed up its move to more stable financial jurisdictions , and given that opportunity I firmly believe that oil legislation is creating or going to create a huge bubble . Much to the embarrassment of the current and incumbent government . C'est la vie.
Very weird over reaction must say. Just as oil was almost nearing $90 ( cash contract)
FCF does not imply this valuation neither oil prices going forward with or without the EPL . The delisting in Sweden is probably done to save money too as they may have judged it as unnecessary vs the benefits. Not really a 14% down RNS !
Everyday something bizarre happens
Ahah no sympathy indeed , mind you I go short too on other assets but would avoid a 9% yield . Seems a bit of a hefty payment to make . Risk parameters for a hedge fund would need to be relaxed to allow for that .
Did realise 85m were closed the other day .
Did my calcs on the weekend and I'd expect another draw this week in US inventories , though because of US bank hols the reports will come out Weds and Thurs instead of Tue and Weds
Bulls did to test and break 270p that is the key to rising higher