Member Info for onedb

@sekforde thanks for the response. If your case is correct or close my analysis would suggest you are higher than the analyst at Barclays with the 400p target . I also think your post is a fair pushback, and you’re right that the sensitivities already incorporate hedging and that the recent production data looks stronger than guidance. The $400m also clearly helps on the balance sheet even if it’s not fully distributable. For me I’d say your numbers are a coherent bull case, and not unreasonable, but still sit above what I’d treat as a base case given how much depends on sustained high prices and full delivery of volumes. hope that makes sense Am extremely bullish myself over a 2/3 year horizon I have targets that make todays price look funny. But am trying to stay calm about it ;-)

I like the bullishness but in my view I'll be happy with the base case , though indeed the longer this goes on the better for HBR

I think the framework you post makes sense, but a lot of the upside comes from stacking quite bullish assumptions at the same time. Brent at $95 and gas at $20 are both above current forward curves( haven't checked this morning ) , and applying sensitivities linearly likely overstates the impact, especially with hedging still in place. I’d also be cautious about adding the extra $300m from production and including the $400m one-off in distributable FCF.

Even adjusting for those, the story still looks strong on cash generation and deleveraging, but the ~$3.6bn FCF and ~25% yield feel closer to a bull case than a base case.

Thank you sir @LucifersConsigle

Strike123

Hey, totally understand the rant—255 felt early! That said, in defence of EIG, big holders often sell to meet liabilities, fund obligations, or stick to their investment mandate. It's rarely just about maximising SP; it's about risk management too.

Thats why in my copied post from ADVFN onto this board i felt that the 2 sells would be moderately positive for the SP going forward as the 2 shareholders were always weaker hands with the intention to sell in for their next venture

Feel free to quote me when you take my post

Are we revising text books now ? I see that real rates bumped up a little but there is no agenda to have rates rising not with $39 trillion on debt ! Servicing it is too expensive . Gold next support level will be the spring board to a super rally in my view and so will HOC follow

Won’t take long to clear. It’s just our third shareholder from our European acquisition probably like the previous one . They get into firmer hands . It’s just a big sell order .

Nm

Brent 10% up WTI 15% as I type yet HBR a shave off 2% . despite the leverage an oil company has . What will Monday bring ? 310-320 or more ? as past few days price action here has been very subdued relative to oil prices

US deal is looking great at this stage and no EPL to pay to the greedy lot over here . I know it may last for a few weeks or even months but sense that the disruption will take a long longer and above all have a bullish oil view regardless . Look at how Oil contrary to what many suggest has actually been deflationary . Gold divided by oil ratio proves that and those who look at long term cycles will know oil follow gold and that ratio will be reduced as oil will catch up ...OIl sub 100 in 27 is in my view unlikely on current circumstances ! Hence the US deal was one giant lucky transaction . great timing

Accumulate . Oil is building up to a rally similar to gold in the next 2 years . If I were to post my target you'll take me to the asylum ;-)

Sittingduck11

I agree current oil prices are the right time to accumulate , the multiplier will be significant for every 10$ of oil increase

I see this position in HBR that I have been carrying for ages at long last travel north quite significantly . I have too quietly added non stop.

"But in a new report, the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) called on the government to lift its ban on new exploration licences and to cut tax rates on the industry, saying the measures have “sharply increased policy risk and driven capital out of the basin”.

Source: The Telegraph https://share.google/6TQujV3JZ6PNSErt2

Oil is going to go from strength to strength and parabolic in the next 2 years. Think GS was playing some game or angry at missing out on the latest deal , as no other broker went so low. But in any case why is it important? Their track record is shocking anyway Most often when you see oil at super highs GS starts to put out insane targets or just the opposite when its crashed ! They play their game

HBR is a multi bagger in my book time will tell

OIl has been pushing up nicely ! Back to testing $70 tomorrow ? well even if not 229 is pretty low , and expect bigger targets here

Obvious time to load up at these levels in my view and accumulate . Which is what I have been doing . I can’t see how current gold prices and hence gold to oil ratio isn’t pointing at a much higher oil price and HBr is now very diversified with a much more secure production and geographically hedged better . As for some posts on UK tax and EPL that is only for UK assets Look at BP and Shell They are not taxed at EPL on global profits . HBr will be a mutliple of current price and is currently severely undervalued . When I first bought HBr I was stung by the EPL out of my control . But now the firm is a different beast and with astute acquisitions has turned it round . We won’t sub 3/4 quid this year in my view . Come Dec we’ll be above .

When I started adding gold and silver 2 years ago plus miners . I felt that given it time and oil would follow there after , I was 2 years early but entered very low vs today . Think oil stocks and oil will be next and starting to accumulate now ( even though I have a historical holding ) makes sense, First target 280 but sense the final target is multiples of that , I said the same when I bought HOC (gold silver miner at 91 ) end target was 620 for me but had all the interim milestones. So interim for HBR 277-280 then we'll push higher . The diversification has been nothing but amazing but sense oil will rally eventually too

Am equally quite enthusiastic here Rookie , market only narrowly down as it digests the new setup , with Oil rallying as I type . This will be a huge further boost to FCF and diversification . Won't take long to pay itself off too with a big of help from an OIl rally I am expecting .

As for the notes of the presentation online why couldn't our (if your are UK based ) government have the same rate God knows

"Low breakeven assets with production of 34 kboepd2, operating costs of $12/boe3 and a blended federal and state tax rate of c.23%"

This part was very positive too

"Free cash flow per share accretive from 2027

Intention to move distributions policy to a payout ratio approach in 2026, incorporating a base dividend and share buybacks, to align with international and US oil and gas peers

Material and increasing free cash flow supports competitive shareholder distributions and deleveraging"

I did post several times that the lows we recently touched were a buy the dip moment . I hope many loaded up . I did a little though I carry quite a big holding here . 400p is the bare minimum , now that the trajectory has been set by quite a few big catalysts , 500p is alongside a broker's views where am aiming for just a nudge higher in my case . Mara Rosa is ramping up based on last RNS . so its effects should be quite significant in 2026 ( touch wood)