Member Info for OliGarch

spaceman, how do you come to the conclusion that the company is in the brown stuff?
I think that you will find that the BoD have got the situation firmly under control and are exactly where they want it to be. The last five months have been very carefully planned and once it has become a proper gig economy it will start to make money again.
Of course, the service will be poorer and maybe the USO will be altered but as long as the SP goes up and dividends are paid then that's all that matters on this forum.

****nal, how did you manage to get a moniker like that when it four stars the first part of your moniker in the dialogue box?
Would it have been the same if you had called yourself S****horpe United, Matt Han**** or Widow T****ie?

So, Newdealz, sitting on the fence as usual?.....lol

Derek, just thinking outside the box here but would it necessarily be the Saturday delivery that goes under a five day USO?

The increase on the limit of self sick certification from three days (I think) to seven days was brought in to help ease the congestion at GP surgeries. In theory this was a good idea but unfortunately in some areas of industry it seemed as though it was giving credibility for certain parts of society to stretch the limits of credibility.
There are many RM employees that treat the generous sick leave policy with the respect that it deserves, however there are around ten percent who seem to abuse it every year without fail.
I would have been happy if Thompson had said that the first three days of the second period of self certification wold be statutory sick pay but caveat that by saying that someone who had a certificate signed by their GP/Hospital/surgeon, especially post surgery or emergency medical procedure would be exempt instead of tarring everyone with the same brush.

Time2Kill, why does Thompson have to broker a deal?
He forced a 2% deal, the workforce went on strike and triggered the get out clause on some major agreements so I'm not sure that he is required to do any more?
The CWU have already said that the offer is unacceptable, so hopefully on the back of this there will be a temporary dip in the SP at the beginning of next week and that's when I intend to add to my hedge fund.
If strike action continues on the 26th there may be a temporary blip however I fully expect Thompson to stick to his guns and cease talks. There may be some turbulence until the start of the New Year but after that I would anticipate the SP to start to rise.
All in my opinion of course, just venting my thoughts.

This is the CWU response. It looks like the members will never see the offer, which is quite undemocratic
Hopefully the SP will drop on Monday and give me the opportunity to add some shares to my "hedge" fund?

STATEMENT TO ROYAL MAIL GROUP MEMBERS

We have met the CEO and Royal Mail Group this morning via ACAS and they have presented us with documents which we simply cannot agree to.

The CWU is willing to continue talking and we have agreed to present alternative proposals on Monday at ACAS.

The CEO has told us he has a Board meeting at 5pm on Monday and that this is effectively his deadline for negotiations to conclude. We have made it clear we are available for negotiations right up until the strike action on Thursday.

We will hold a meeting of every CWU representative in the UK at 5:30pm on Monday.

National Gate Meeting Day will take place on Tuesday.

We will hold a CWU Live event on Wednesday.

You will all recognise this is a pivotal moment. Whilst we are doing everything possible to reach an agreement, the absolute focus of every member and representative must be on delivering next week’s strike action.

Dave Ward General Secretary

Andy Furey Acting Deputy General Secretary (Postal)

AngerSharkz, I have just watched the BBC interview and it looks as though the BBC journalist interrupted first and on several occasions, 0:45, 2:22 and 2:54?
You are also correct that Dave Ward should have pointed out that group profits were £758m, however I believe that the 2022/22 dividend and share buyback scheme totalling £401m was derived from group profits. On that basis, you could also argue that RM UK paid for 416/758 or roughly 55% of the 2021/22 dividend?

Letting staff go (whether on VR terms or not) will be in Thompson's plan because he knows that it's fire and rehire by stealth and until the BoD can get the USO reduced then the business is still going to require a large manual workforce to service the current USO.
I'm not sure how or if this will impact the SP in the short term but I suspect that there will need to be a large turnover of new staff?
Whether these are casual or short term contracts will be interesting, however my personal dealing with those on zero/low hours contacts is that they will walk into a new job for 20p more per hour or slightly improved terms and conditions, often with little or no notice and absolutely no loyalty. This could be the trade-off that Thompson is hoping for but long term I suspect that it will be a false economy.
The lease options on an all new electric fleet could also prove interesting and I would imagine that there will be good tax concessions there. Hopefully the current fleet technicians will go to local companies and perhaps on better terms as presumably the new fleet will be serviced by the leasing agents?

JMC66, I don't believe that anyone is saying that there wasn't a case for a dividend payment in 2022, after all, RM UK posted a £416m profit and GLS posted a £346m profit last May, however the BoD agreed to award a £127m dividend payment (sanctioned by the shareholders) after it was announced that the business was in financial difficulty and privately the top managers knew that RM UK was going to be in financial difficulty this time last year when they announced the January dividend payment and bizarre share buyback scheme. The fact that regional directors were cancelling minor works contracts and not ordering hire vehicles is evidence in itself.
Williams Jeavons and Thompson have manipulated this situation to suit a narrative.

Thanks Dowsie,
"the generally accepted approach to the valuation of land for development is to start with what the end state completed development will be worth when built. This is known as the gross development value and it assumes that all consents and title issues are resolved. From the gross development value are deducted all costs including construction and finance costs and a developer’s profit to arrive at what is known as a residual land value. This is how the three London development sites will be valued by developers in the property industry. Unfortunately a lot of press speculation has focused on the gross development value and this is very misleading."
As the site at Nine Elms (and it's car park) has already been sold off leaving a small delivery office on the site of the original overflow warehouse then I would guess that the Mount Pleasant site is valued at £1.5bn although it is now the only mail centre left in central London so it would be of strategic importance.

LeeVal, first time poster. If only it were as simple as reading a balance sheet....lol...... Still it's a good thing that Hounddog has now schooled you correctly so that you don't make the same mistake again....

Hounddog, thank you for your breakdown and analysis although I thought that the BoD had made it absolutely clear that they were dealing with two separate businesses and that there was not to be any cross funding?
By the way, your 16:10 comment today "I am not even sure management has much of a clue" did make me laugh even if I did take this out of context.

AngerSharkz, the "£1.5bn in excess property" comment made by Ian Lance certainly grabbed my attention and I was wondering if he really meant "excess" property as this would imply that it doesn't relate to land and buildings in current use; either that or he was thinking along the lines of sell and lease back which is becoming more popular in certain industries?
"What I would like to see from management is their plan to actually get Royal Mail out of this mess and back to profitability….."
I couldn't agree more. Perhaps the BoD were thinking along the lines of decimating it to rebuild it?

RGPostie, Talk2Much, just a thought but what makes you think that it would be the Saturday letter delivery that would be sacrificed under a five day USO?

AngerSharkz, "we already know the H1 numbers are going to be atrocious as reported a few weeks back…"
Or are they? We will soon find out.....

Scottmurly, "looks like some investors already know the interim financial report results that are to be released on the 17th November".
Thompson has stated that the UK operation is losing £1m per day which would realistically counter any profits from GLS. If the results are better then that means Thompson has been very economical with the truth, misled the shareholders, 115,000 employees and their union but as we have been made aware on this forum, there is absolutely no chance of creative accounting here so that can't happen?.....
Insider trading? Whatever are you suggesting? Nothing to see here..... kindly move on.....lol

https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/press-releases/2020/wage-agreement-for-deutsche-post-employees-longer-term-comprehensive-agreement.html

Teddbear, indeed... some of us "in-housers" have bought in as a hedge against our future employment.
It's a "win if we strike and force the company to stand down" or a "win if VESA buy the company and chop it up"
Ker-ching....

mhudson, all that "extra leave" sounds amazing from an employee's perspective.
Remind me again as to why you left.....lol

Maximas, I assume that you will be using Kayak for your flight?

Scampthedog, "we both know, that whatever review or consultation with the union, or whatever promises are made regarding usage of data-capture, or any agreement on any other contentious issue that is hammered out...it won't be worth a tinker's toss once the Board is ready to discard it".
Absolutely spot on, which is why the majority of the workforce never have and never will trust senior management any more than they would trust a politician.
It's taken nine long years for RM management to get to this point which in my book means that we have staved them off for nine years. For all of Thompson's claims about being proud to deliver the USO, the objective, even before his tenure began, has always been to model DPD or Evri. The sequencing machines were originally purchased back in 2011 with the aim of dropping bags of letters off to delivery points for local delivery by part time workers so the owner/driver model is just a step up from that.
For the shareholders, now is an excellent time to get your stash ready? Perhaps buy some before the 17th as a hedge in case the negotiations go well. If they don't then load up some more after the 17th. Surely it's an open goal ready to be scored?